Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and Structural Uncertainty Estimations

Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for the monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty, because initial experiments indicate the existence of significant nonlinear interactions. Globally, the resulting ensemble exhibits a wider uncertainty range before 1900, as well as an uncertainty maximum around World War II. Changes at smaller spatial scales in many regions, or for important features such as Niño-3.4 variability, are found to be dominated by particular parameter choices. Substantial differences in parametric uncertainty estimates are found between ERSST.v4 and the independently derived Hadley Centre SST version 3 (HadSST3) product. The largest uncertainties are over the mid and high latitudes in ERSST.v4 but in the tropics in HadSST3. Overall, in comparison with HadSST3, ERSST.v4 has larger parametric uncertainties at smaller spatial and shorter time scales and smaller parametric uncertainties at longer time scales, which likely reflects the different sources of uncertainty quantified in the respective parametric analyses. ERSST.v4 exhibits a stronger globally averaged warming trend than HadSST3 during the period of 1910–2012, but with a smaller parametric uncertainty. These global-mean trend estimates and their uncertainties marginally overlap. Several additional SST datasets are used to infer the structural uncertainty inherent in SST estimates. For the global mean, the structural uncertainty, estimated as the spread between available SST products, is more often than not larger than the parametric uncertainty in ERSST.v4. Neither parametric nor structural uncertainties call into question that on the global-mean level and centennial time scale, SSTs have warmed notably

The Triplex BioValsalva Prostheses To Reconstruct the Aortic Valve and the Aortic Root

The Bentall procedure introduced in 1968 represents an undisputed cure to treat multiple pathologies involving the aortic valve and the ascending thoracic aorta. Over the years, multiple modifications have been introduced as well as a standardized approach to the operation with the goal to prevent long-term adverse events. The BioValsalva prosthesis provides a novel manner to more efficiently reconstruct the aortic valve together with the anatomy of the aortic root with the implantation of a valved conduit. This prosthesis comprises three sections: the collar supporting the valve; the skirt mimicking the Valsalva, which is suitable for the anastomoses with the coronary arteries; and the main body of the graft, which is designed to replace the ascending aorta. The BioValsalva prosthesis allows the Bentall operation to be used in patients whose aortic valve cannot be spared

Infection of inbred BALB/c and C57BL/6 and outbred Institute of Cancer Research mice with the emerging H7N9 avian influenza virus

A new avian-origin influenza virus A (H7N9) recently crossed the species barrier and infected humans; therefore, there is an urgent need to establish mammalian animal models for studying the pathogenic mechanism of this strain and the immunological response. In this study, we attempted to develop mouse models of H7N9 infection because mice are traditionally the most convenient models for studying influenza viruses. We showed that the novel A (H7N9) virus isolated from a patient could infect inbred BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice as well as outbred Institute of Cancer Research (ICR) mice. The amount of bodyweight lost showed differences at 7 days post infection (d.p.i.) (BALB/c mice 30%, C57BL/6 and ICR mice approximately 20%), and the lung indexes were increased both at 3 d.p.i. and at 7 d.p.i.. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated the existence of the H7N9 viruses in the lungs of the infected mice, and these findings were verified by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) detection at 3 d.p.i. and 7 d.p.i.. Histopathological changes occurred in the infected lungs, including pulmonary interstitial inflammatory lesions, pulmonary oedema and haemorrhages. Furthermore, because the most clinically severe cases were in elderly patients, we analysed the H7N9 infections in both young and old ICR mice. The old ICR mice showed more severe infections with more bodyweight lost and a higher lung index than the young ICR mice. Compared with the young ICR mice, the old mice showed a delayed clearance of the H7N9 virus and higher inflammation in the lungs. Thus, old ICR mice could partially mimic the more severe illness in elderly patients. </p

The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set – meeting users needs and future priorities

The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) is a collection and archive of in situ marine observations, which has been developed over several decades as an international project and recently guided by formal international partnerships and the ICOADS Steering Committee. ICOADS contains observations from many different observing systems encompassing the evolution of measurement technology since the 18th century. ICOADS provides an integrated source of observations for a range of applications including research and climate monitoring, and forms the main marine in situ surface data source, e.g., near-surface ocean observations and lower atmospheric marine-meteorological observations from buoys, ships, coastal stations, and oceanographic sensors, for oceanic and atmospheric research and reanalysis. ICOADS has developed ways to incorporate user and reanalyses feedback information associated with permanent unique identifiers and is also the main repository for data that have been rescued from ships’ logbooks and other marine data digitization activities. ICOADS has been adopted widely because it provides convenient access to a range of observation types, globally, and through the entire marine instrumental record. ICOADS has provided a secure home for such observations for decades. Because of the increased volume of observations, particularly those available in near-real-time, and an expansion of their diversity, the ICOADS processing system now requires extensive modernization. Based on user feedback, we will outline the improvements that are required, the challenges to their implementation, and the benefits of upgrading this important and diverse marine archive and distribution activity

A call for new approaches to quantifying biases in observations of sea-surface temperature

Global surface-temperature changes are a fundamental expression of climate change. Recent, much-debated, variations in the observed rate of surface-temperature change have highlighted the importance of uncertainty in adjustments applied to sea-surface temperature (SST) measurements. These adjustments are applied to compensate for systematic biases and changes in observing protocol. Better quantification of the adjustments and their uncertainties would increase confidence in estimated surface-temperature change and provide higher- quality gridded SST fields for use in many applications. Bias adjustments have been based either on physical models of the observing processes or on the assumption of an unchanging relationship between SST and a reference data set such as night marine air temperature. These approaches produce similar estimates of SST bias on the largest space and timescales, but regional differences can exceed the estimated uncertainty. We describe challenges to improving our understanding of SST biases. Overcoming these will require clarification of past observational methods, improved modeling of biases associated with each observing method, and the development of statistical bias estimates that are less sensitive to the absence of metadata regarding the observing method. New approaches are required that embed bias models, specific to each type of observation, within a robust statistical framework. Mobile platforms and rapid changes in observation type require biases to be assessed for individual historic and present-day platforms (i.e., ships or buoys) or groups of platforms. Lack of observational metadata and of high-quality observations for validation and bias model development are likely to remain major challenges

Sea surface temperature intercomparison in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

A joint effort between the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) has been dedicated to an intercomparison study of eight global gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products to assess their accurate representation of the SST relevant to climate analysis. In general, all SST products show consistent spatial patterns and temporal variability during the overlapping time period (2003-2018). The main differences between each product are located in western boundary current and Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions. Linear trends display consistent SST spatial patterns among all products and exhibit a strong warming trend from 2012 to 2018 with the Pacific Ocean basin as the main contributor. SST discrepancy between all SST products is very small compared to the significant warming trend. Spatial power spectral density shows that the interpolation into 1o spatial resolution has negligible impacts on our results. The global mean SST time series reveals larger differences among all SST products during the early period of the satellite era (1982-2002) when there were fewer observations, indicating that the observation frequency is the main constraint of the SST climatology. The maturity matrix scores, which present the maturity of each product in terms of documentation, storage, and dissemination but not the scientific quality, demonstrate that ESA-CCI and OSTIA SST are well documented for users' convenience. Improvements could be made for MGDSST and BoM SST. Finally, we have recommended that these SST products can be used for fundamental climate applications and climate studies (e.g. El Nino)

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Global Oceans

Global Oceans is one chapter from the State of the Climate in 2019 annual report and is avail-able from https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0105.1. Compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate in 2019 is based on contr1ibutions from scien-tists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instru-ments located on land, water, ice, and in space. The full report is available from https://doi.org /10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)