How Much Did Speculation Contribute to Recent Food Price Inflation?

Recent increases in commodity prices have led to calls for the regulation of speculators. These calls have come from many reputable quarters including leading agricultural and food policy institutions such as International Food Policy Research Institute as well as different members of the U.S. Congress. They are based on an assumption that speculative activities are a primary or major source of the volatility in the markets and that controlling these activities through regulations would bring more stability to the market. The paper tests this hypothesis and assesses the contribution of speculative activities in the commodity markets over the past decade to price inflation. The paper argues that government regulatory policies to control speculation in commodity markets is a second best solution that would probably yield neutral or negative benefits to the very people the policy aims to protect.speculators, inflation, prices, ARIMA, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

Implications of Neuroscience Developments in Understanding Human Behavior for Teaching Agricultural Economics/Agribusiness

neuroscience, behavioral economics, teaching, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

The determinants of household-level well-being in Northern Ghana

Citation: Zereyesus, Y. A., Shanoyan, A., Ross, K. L., & Amanor-Boadu, V. (2016). The determinants of household-level well-being in Northern Ghana. Development Studies Research, 3(1), 1-10. doi:10.1080/21665095.2016.1229128Empirical analysis of the physical well-being at the household level was conducted for a sample of households in Northern Ghana using a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model. Physical well-being was indicated by the number of stunted children, number of wasted children, and number of underweight women. Results suggest that well-being at the household level is indeed represented by the latent variable and can be conceptualized in much the same way as the well-being of the individuals who constitute the household. Results show that the literacy of father and the number of dependents are associated with the largest shift in the underlying household’s physical well-being. Locale and the household assets were also significantly associated with the collective underlying latent variable. The variability in household physical well-being is explained more by the number of stunted children in the household than any of the other indicators of household well-being. © 2016 The Author(s)

Implications of Non-Farm Work to Vulnerability to Food Poverty-Recent Evidence From Northern Ghana

SummaryUsing survey data from northern Ghana, this study seeks to establish the impact of participation in non-farm work on the vulnerability of resource poor households to food poverty. Vulnerability to food poverty is assessed based on expected future food expenditure of households. The potential endogeneity problem associated with participation in non-farm work by households is overcome using a novel instrumental variable approach. Analysis of the determinants of expected future food expenditure is done using a standard Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method. Demographic and socioeconomic variables, location variables, and household facilities are included in the model as control variables. Our study finds that participation in non-farm work significantly increased the future expected food consumption, thereby alleviating the vulnerability of households to food poverty. Our study also confirms that current food poverty and future food poverty, i.e., vulnerability to food poverty, are not independent from each other. Non-farm work plays a crucial role in providing the means to overcome the risk of food poverty in these resource poor households. Policies that promote off-farm income generating activities, such as small businesses and self-employment, as well as the creation and support of businesses that absorb extra labor from the farm, should be encouraged in the study region. Because households in the study region are exposed to above average levels of hunger and food poverty, the study recommends the government of Ghana and development partners to take measures that enhance the resilience of these resource poor households

Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Current status and recommended improvements

Improvement of food security is a common objective for many agricultural systems analyses, but how food security has been conceptualized and evaluated within agricultural systems has not been systematically evaluated. We reviewed the literature on agricultural systems analyses of food security at the household- and regionallevels, finding that the primary focus is on only one dimension of food security-agricultural output as a proxy for food availability. Given that food security comprises availability, access, utilization and stability dimensions, improved practice would involve more effort to incorporate food access and stability indicators into agricultural systems models. The empirical evidence base for including food access indicators and their determinants within agricultural systems models requires further development through appropriate short and longterm investments in data collection and analysis. Assessment of the stability dimension of food security (through time) is also particularly under-represented in previous work and requires the development and application of appropriate dynamic models of agricultural systems that include food security indicators, coupled with more formalized treatment of robustness and adaptability at both the regional and household levels. We find that agricultural systems models often conflate analysis of food security covariates that have the potential to improve food security (like agricultural yields) with an assessment of food security itself. Agricultural systems modelers should exercise greater caution in referring to analyses of agricultural output and food availability as representing food security more generally

The relationship between accurate knowledge on HIV/AIDS transmission and adolescent pregnancy in Ghana : A further analyses of the 2017 multiple cluster indicator survey

Abstract: Background : The literature posits that HIV knowledge is associated with precautious sexual behaviour and practice. We hypothesised and investigated the association between knowledge of HIV transmission and adolescent pregnancy in Ghana, given that the relationship between HIV knowledge and adolescent pregnancy has not been extensively studied. Methods: We did analyses on 5836 cases (weighted as 5121) of 15–24 years old reproductive age women in the female dataset of the 2017 Multiple Cluster Indicator Survey. Adolescent pregnancy was operationalized as reproductive age women between 15-24 years who became pregnant before the age of 18 years. Accurate HIV knowledge was measured by computing the scores of correct responses on six questions exploring women's knowledge about HIV transmission. We accounted for sample design and weight before performing a Chi-square test of independence and Poisson regression. Results: The results indicate that having lower scores on the HIV transmission knowledge scale was correlated with a higher probability of girls becoming pregnant before their 18th birthday. After controlling for the moderating effect of socio-demographic characteristics of the participants, we found that accurate HIV transmission knowledge loses its statistical significance in determining adolescent pregnancy. The factors that remain significant in the adjusted model were formal education status, household wealth, and region of residence. HIV transmission knowledge was statistically significantly related to adolescent pregnancy in the model after the education level variable was omitted. This observation was due to the significant effect of school education on other variables in the model. This result demonstrates that HIV knowledge has a major impact on adolescent pregnancy, but this effect is predicated by formal education attainment of the adolescent girl. Conclusions: Given the results, adolescent pregnancy issues can be resolved by the government and other development partners by adequately educating adolescents about HIV transmissions. Also, because they have the potential to reduce pregnancy among adolescents in Ghana, we recommend that programs and initiatives should address existing disparities in formal educational attainment and household wealth

Economic Impact Assessment of Sorghum, Millet and Other Grains CRSP: Sorghum and Millet Germplasm Development Research

As a result of the offsetting effect of a rise in productivity and decline in harvested area, the world sorghum production (tonnes) has been on a horizontal trend. The combined effect of a decline in area harvested and a rise in yield productivity have resulted in an overall increase in world millet production (tonnes) trend. During the last three decades, significant numbers of breeding lines, parental stocks, germplasm and cultivars have been released through INTSORMIL/host countries collaboration around the world. Some of the remarkable breeding success stories include the release of the first hybrid sorghum Hageen Dura (HD-1) and Striga tolerant varieties in Sudan; the introduction and release of Sureno sorghum variety in Honduras ; and numerous other releases in various other African and Latin American countries such as Mali (Malisor lines with excellent head bug resistance, N\u27Tenimissa-tan plant guinea type cultivars), Niger (high yielding varieties as well as drought resistant hybrids ), Nigeria (LCICMH-I -a pearl millet hybrid with early maturing characteristic), Zambia ( improved varieties such as Kuyuma and Sima and hybrids such as MMSH-928 for drought prone areas , MMSH-1324 for resistant to most diseases, and MMSH-1256 widely adapted to most of the country) and Ethiopia (Striga resistant varieties such as Gubiye, Abshir and Brhan), Columbia (two varieties, Sorgo Real 40 and Sorgo Real 60 that are tolerant to Al and salt ). On a global coverage, the average rate of return to sorghum and millet agricultural R&D investments is about 60 percent per year which is in the range of the average rate of return estimated for agricultural R&D investments. Despite the positive and promising returns to investment in sorghum and millet researches, there appears to be limited economic analysis done in such endeavors. It is important to increase the impact assessment studies to provide empirical support to investments in sorghum and millet improvement technologies. INTSORMIL host countries have benefited from a significant amount of cultivar releases over the last three decades. Based on INTSORMIL reports and successful releases as well as potential adoptions, more impact assessment type of studies should be done in general in Asia (India) and the United States as well. Other countries for that deserve economic impact assessment are: Honduras (for example the variety Sureno), Columbia (aluminum/salt tolerant varieties), Mali, Niger and Zambia (all with multiple cultivars) particularly based on the significant amount of varietal releases in record during the life span of INTSORMIL. Analysis of dynamics of the data on the area harvested during INTSORMIL’s lifespan would also show that Nigeria, Niger- for example SEPON82 is the most adapted cultivar in Southern Maradi region of Niger7 -, Mali, Senegal, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Uganda have seen an increase in the area harvested (ha) to Sorghum that lends support to the need to undertake impact assessment studies. So many reports reveal that quite significant amount of releases are already out there for farmers to use. In spite of the successful research and development progress shown through INTSORMIL in particular and local and international research centers in general, nonetheless, the lack of functional technology transfer institutions continue to pose significant impediments for the overall solutions to development in agriculture. In general, it is observed that the majority of the economic impact assessment studies were evaluations of past R&D investments (ex-post type analyses) and even more so in the Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Even though, the amount of such ex-post studies is by no means enough, it is essential to consider that adequate economic impact assessment studies (ex-ante type) be undertaken to help aid in the crafting of effective technology introductions and policy designs

CHAIN MANAGEMENT AND MARKETING PERFORMANCE OF THE BANANA INDUSTRY IN ERITREA

The current marketing of agricultural products in general, and of bananas in particular, poses special problems for Eritrean farmers. Poor climatic conditions coupled with crude and inefficient agricultural technologies render agricultural output sub-optimal. The major production problems include shortage of capital and scarcity of land; shortage of farming materials; spoilage of bananas during harvesting due to inappropriate harvesting techniques and facilities and lack of technical know how. In addition, the main marketing problems comprise transport problems to stores; general storage problems; lack of information and spoilage during transport. Taking the above into account it should be noted that current trends towards the increased globalization of markets, trade liberalization, advances in information technology, consumer preferences and improved logistics means that the competitiveness of fruit industries in various regions and countries, as affected by the performance of their supply chains, is becoming increasingly important and will be even more important in the future. Cognisance should also be taken of the fact that much confusion exists regarding the exact meaning of the term competitiveness. Comparative advantage and competitiveness are related, but are often mistakenly exchanged for one another. Comparative advantage explains how trade benefits nations through more efficient use of their resource base when trade is totally unrestricted. Competitive advantage defines trade patterns as they exist in the real world, including all the barriers to free trade ignored by comparative advantage (Worley, 1996). Vitally important is to take cognizance of the fact that the establishment of a competitive supply chain is a prerequisite for an industry's competitiveness and success. Based on this analysis, this study proposes what should be done to achieve a workable SCM for the banana industry in Eritrea. In its broader sense, the proposed structure of the SCM involves the introduction of horizontal strategic alliances between existing banana producers and the marketing group and a vertical relationship along the supply chain. Given that bananas comprise a considerable portion of the international trade makes it significant to this study. Bananas are also symbolic of the wide range of injustices present in international trade today. The Lomé Convention, which placed certain Latin American banana exporting countries at a disadvantage, was the root cause of trade disputes, and the eventual replacement of this Convention will have an impact on the future banana export prospects of ACP countries. Eritrean producers, like those of other ACP countries, therefore have little time to adjust and become competitive against "dollar" bananas on the European market, which at this point enjoy a production cost and quality advantage