Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000–2012

Background It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. Methods Data from 29 European countries covering the years 2000–2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. Results The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high inflation and low GDP per capita, while female suicides correlated negatively with inflation. Both male and female suicides correlated with low temperature. Discussion The current study reports that the climatic effect (cold climate) is stronger than the economic one, but both are present. It seems that in Europe suicidality follows the climate/temperature cline which interestingly is not from south to north but from south to north-east. This raises concerns that climate change could lead to an increase in suicide rates. The current study is essentially the first successful attempt to explain the differences across countries in Europe; however, it is an observational analysis based on aggregate data and thus there is a lack of control for confounders

A First Case Study of CCN Concentrations from Spaceborne Lidar Observations

We present here the first cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration profiles derived from measurements with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), for different aerosol types at a supersaturation of 0.15%. CCN concentrations, along with the corresponding uncertainties, were inferred for a nighttime CALIPSO overpass on 9 September 2011, with coincident observations with the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 research aircraft, within the framework of the Evaluation of CALIPSO’s Aerosol Classification scheme over Eastern Mediterranean (ACEMED) research campaign over Thessaloniki, Greece. The CALIPSO aerosol typing is evaluated, based on data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis. Backward trajectories and satellite-based fire counts are used to examine the origin of air masses on that day. Our CCN retrievals are evaluated against particle number concentration retrievals at different height levels, based on the ACEMED airborne measurements and compared against CCN-related retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard Terra and Aqua product over Thessaloniki showing that it is feasible to obtain CCN concentrations from CALIPSO, with an uncertainty of a factor of two to three

Spatiotemporal Variability and Contribution of Different Aerosol Types to the Aerosol Optical Depth over the Eastern Mediterranean

This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Terra (March 2000-December 2012) and Aqua (July 2002-December 2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1deg 0.1deg gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sun photometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium-sized cities, industrial zones and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is approx. 0.22 +/- 0.19, with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in central and eastern Europe and transport of dust from the Sahara and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols account for approx. 51, approx. 34 and approx. 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account approx. 40, approx. 34 and approx. 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations

MODELING THE TRANS-ATLANTIC TRANSPORTATION OF SAHARAN DUST

In the present study we are simulating the trans-Atlantic transport of dust from Sahara to the South-Central America, using the regional climate model RegCM4 and its online dust scheme, for the year 2007. The simulated horizontal and vertical distributions of the mineral dust optical properties were evaluated against the LIVAS CALIPSO satellite dust product. The Trans-Atlantic dust transport is simulated adequately with RegCM4, but there are some spatial discrepancies. Dust optical thickness is overestimated in the eastern Sahara throughout the year by 0.1-0.2, while near the gulf of Guinea is underestimated during winter and spring. Although RegCM4 dust plume is located southern on winter and spring, it doesn't spatially match the dust optical thickness of LIVAS. In summer and autumn the vertical distribution of dust between 3-4km during the Trans-Atlantic transport is simulated by the model adequately up to 30ºW 40ºW longitude. However, during winter-spring RegCM4 misplaces dust loading into higher altitude. Finally, we discuss some possible reasons and mechanisms that might be responsible for the differences between the model and the observations

A 3-D evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over Europe, northern Africa and Middle East using CALIOP/CALIPSO dust satellite observations

The MACC reanalysis dust product is evaluated over Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East using the EARLINET-optimized CALIOP/CALIPSO pure dust satellite-based product LIVAS (2007–2012). MACC dust optical depth at 550nm (DOD550) data are compared against LIVAS DOD532 observations. As only natural aerosol (dust and sea salt) profiles are available in MACC, here we focus on layers above 1kma.s.l. to diminish the influence of sea salt particles that typically reside at low heights. So, MACC natural aerosol extinction coefficient profiles at 550nm are compared against dust extinction coefficient profiles at 532nm from LIVAS, assuming that the MACC natural aerosol profile data can be similar to the dust profile data, especially over pure continental regions. It is shown that the reanalysis data are capable of capturing the major dust hot spots in the area as the MACC DOD550 patterns are close to the LIVAS DOD532 patterns throughout the year. MACC overestimates DOD for regions with low dust loadings and underestimates DOD for regions with high dust loadings where DOD exceeds  ∼ 0.3. The mean bias between the MACC and LIVAS DOD is 0.025 ( ∼ 25%) over the whole domain. Both MACC and LIVAS capture the summer and spring high dust loadings, especially over northern Africa and the Middle East, and exhibit similar monthly structures despite the biases. In this study, dust extinction coefficient patterns are reported at four layers (layer 1: 1200–3000ma.s.l., layer 2: 3000–4800ma.s.l., layer 3: 4800–6600m a.s.l. and layer 4: 6600–8400ma.s.l.). The MACC and LIVAS extinction coefficient patterns are similar over areas characterized by high dust loadings for the first three layers. Within layer 4, MACC overestimates extinction coefficients consistently throughout the year over the whole domain. MACC overestimates extinction coefficients compared to LIVAS over regions away from the major dust sources while over regions close to the dust sources (the Sahara and Middle East) it underestimates strongly only for heights below  ∼ 3–5kma.s.l. depending on the period of the year. In general, it is shown that dust loadings appear over remote regions and at heights up to 9kma.s.l. in MACC contrary to LIVAS. This could be due to the model performance and parameterizations of emissions and other processes, due to the assimilation of satellite aerosol measurements over dark surfaces only or due to a possible enhancement of aerosols by the MACC assimilation system

Regional climate hindcast simulations within EURO-CORDEX: evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble

In the current work we present six hindcast WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) simulations for the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) domain with different configurations in microphysics, convection and radiation for the time period 1990?2008. All regional model simulations are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and have the same spatial resolution (0.44°). These simulations are evaluated for surface temperature, precipitation, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface and total cloud cover. The analysis of the WRF ensemble indicates systematic temperature and precipitation biases, which are linked to different physical mechanisms in the summer and winter seasons. Overestimation of total cloud cover and underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at the surface, mostly linked to the Grell?Devenyi convection and CAM (Community Atmosphere Model) radiation schemes, intensifies the negative bias in summer temperatures over northern Europe (max ?2.5 °C). Conversely, a strong positive bias in downward shortwave radiation in summer over central (40?60%) and southern Europe mitigates the systematic cold bias over these regions, signifying a typical case of error compensation. Maximum winter cold biases are over northeastern Europe (?2.8 °C); this location suggests that land?atmosphere rather than cloud?radiation interactions are to blame. Precipitation is overestimated in summer by all model configurations, especially the higher quantiles which are associated with summertime deep cumulus convection. The largest precipitation biases are produced by the Kain?Fritsch convection scheme over the Mediterranean. Precipitation biases in winter are lower than those for summer in all model configurations (15?30%). The results of this study indicate the importance of evaluating not only the basic climatic parameters of interest for climate change applications (temperature and precipitation), but also other components of the energy and water cycle, in order to identify the sources of systematic biases, possible compensatory or masking mechanisms and suggest pathways for model improvement.The contribution from Universidad de Cantabria was funded by the Spanish R&D programme through projects CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02-01) and WRF4G (CGL2011-28864), co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. M. García-Díez acknowledges financial support from the EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) project

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Funder: Hadley CentreFunder: BEISFunder: NERCFunder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691Funder: Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments of GreeceAbstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015-2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak (SSP3-7.0) versus strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2:5) and ozone (O3) decrease by 2:20:32 ugm3 and 4:60:88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015-2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0:250:12K and 0:030:012mmd1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0:660:20K and 0:030:02mmd1), south Asia (0:470:16K and 0:170:09mmd1), and east Asia (0:460:20K and 0:150:06mmd1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0:590:36K and 0:040:02mmd1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Tropospheric ozone from 1877 to 2016, observed levels, trends and uncertainties

From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have different uncertainties and biases, and the data records differ with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness. In this study, various ozone measurement methods and ozone datasets are reviewed and selected for inclusion in the historical record of background ozone levels, based on relationship of the measurement technique to the modern UV absorption standard, absence of interfering pollutants, representativeness of the well-mixed boundary layer and expert judgement of their credibility. There are significant uncertainties with the 19th and early 20th-century measurements related to interference of other gases. Spectroscopic methods applied before 1960 have likely underestimated ozone by as much as 11% at the surface and by about 24% in the free troposphere, due to the use of differing ozone absorption coefficients. There is no unambiguous evidence in the measurement record back to 1896 that typical mid-latitude background surface ozone values were below about 20 nmol mol–1, but there is robust evidence for increases in the temperate and polar regions of the northern hemisphere of 30–70%, with large uncertainty, between the period of historic observations, 1896–1975, and the modern period (1990–2014). Independent historical observations from balloons and aircraft indicate similar changes in the free troposphere. Changes in the southern hemisphere are much less. Regional representativeness of the available observations remains a potential source of large errors, which are difficult to quantify