Stock Market Returns and Direction Prediction: An Empirical Study on Karachi Stock Exchange

There has been much research in the recent past on the predictability of stock return, mainly due to its significance in managing economic gains on a high scale. Our research initiates the forecasting of the Karachi stock return with the help of the Wavelet analysis and Empirical mode decomposition method. This paper attends in large part to investors and traders to deduce a method for predicting the stock market. The collected data ranges from Jan 2009 to Dec 2012. Every training set is selected from January through October and the sets left over are used for testing. What we have discovered is that Empirical Mode decomposition (EMD) method supersedes all other models on the Mean square error and Mean Absolute error criteria. We may also evaluate the performance of these models by changing strategy direction and comparing payoffs to understand which framework performs as a better forecasting model. It is establishes by the results of the study that the same model serves better for forecasting in trading strategy and could rule over other possible models for most periods under consideration. It is our belief that this study will help stock investors to come to quick decisions about optimal buying or selling time in Karachi Stock Exchange Key Words: Forecasting, KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange) 100 Index, Empirical Mode Decomposition, Trading Strateg

Numerical Solution of Airy Differential Equation by Using Haar Wavelet

Haar wavelet is exceedingly simple and optimized completely for computers, so that it can be used for solving ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations without a hassle. In this paper, numerical solutions of Airy differential equations have been obtained by using the Haar Wavelet Method . Comparisons with exact solutions make clear that the Haar Wavelet Method is a powerful candidate for solving the Airy differential equation. Moreover the use of Haar wavelets is found to be accurate, uncomplicated, speedy, adaptable and convenient with very small computation costs and the extra perk of being computationally attractive. Key Words: Orthogonal Wavelet, Airy Equation, Function Approximation, Operational Matri

Dual Beta Modeling of Karachi Stock Exchange

In the past three decades, the documentation of many features of returns in equity market has been noticed. But less attention has been paid to the feature attacks more commenting else, namely that there are extensive periods of time when equity prices rise and fall colloquially, these periods of time referred to as bull and bear markets respectively. The purpose of this research is to study the betas in the bull and bear market condition for a sample of stocks in the Karachi Stock Market (KSE), major stock market in Pakistan. The data consist of daily returns of two major sectors (Petroleum & Commercial banks) of KSE during the period of February 1997 to December 2007. The data pertains to the daily adjusted closing prices of 15 scripts that form a part of KSE index. This paper investigates whether betas of bull and bear market are statistically different from each other? KSE does not integrate any distribution so we use t-statistics.  Analysis shows that beta is higher when the market is bearish than that when market is bullish for nine stocks while the reverse is true for other six stocks. Keywords: Portfolio Beta, Portfolio Returns, KSE, Dual Bet

Forecasting Gold Price: Evidence from Pakistan Market

In our day to day life, predictability of gold’s prices is significant in many domains such as economics financial and political environment. The main objective of this research is to forecasts the prices of gold, making use of ARIMA and two distinct versions of wavelet scheme. The monthly data consists of 221 observations starting from Dec 2005 to April 2013, has been used in this research. After evaluating the accuracy of these models by mean absolute error and mean square error, it turns out that wavelet neural transformation has better prediction accuracy than rest of the models. Also, this study utilizes the return forecasts from the above mentioned different models in a simple trading strategy and compare pay offs in order to know as to which framework serves a better forecasting model. Keywords: Gold Price, ARIMA, Wavelet, Multiple Regression, Wavelet Neural Transform, Error Analysi

A Hybrid Gold’s Returns Prediction Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

Consumers have produced extraordinary levels of demand of Gold since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008 and investment in small coins and bars striking a record high. Since the previous decade, the prices have reached the sky, but the demand for gold remains firm. With such an enormous need for gold coming from whole over the globe, forecast gold prices are of great interest. The main aim of this study is to forecast the price of gold returns, making use of Autoregressive (AR), Empirical Mode Decomposition Autoregressive (EMDAR) and hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Autoregressive Neural Network (EMDARNN). The daily data consists of 4837 observations starting from Jan 1995 to June 2013, has been used in this research. After assessing the accuracy of these models by mean absolute error and mean square error, it turns out that hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Autoregressive Neural Network excels all the other methods and produces better forecasting with high precision. Keywords: Gold Price, Autoregressive, Empirical Mode decomposition, Artificial Neural Networ

Application of Elzaki Transform Method on Some Fractional Differential Equations

In the paper, we begin by introducing the origin of fractional calculus and the consequent application of the Elzaki transform on fractional derivatives. The Elzaki transformation may be used to solve mathematical problems without resorting to a new frequency domain. Once we establish this connection firmly in the general setting, we turn our attention to the application of the Elzaki transform method to some non-homogeneous fractional, ordinary differential equations. Ultimately, we acquire the graphical solution of the problem by using Matlab 2013a, developed by MathWorks Key Words: Elzaki Transform, Fractional Differential Equation, Linear and Non-linear, Initial Value Problem, Non-homogenou

Solving linear and nonlinear klein-gordon equations by new perturbation iteration transform method

We present an effective algorithm to solve the Linear and Nonlinear KleinGordon equation, which is based on the Perturbation Iteration Transform Method (PITM). The Klein-Gordon equation is the name given to the equation of motion of a quantum scalar or pseudo scalar field, a field whose quanta are spin-less particles. It describes the quantum amplitude for finding a point particle in various places, the relativistic wave function, but the particle propagates both forwards and backwards in time. The Perturbation Iteration Transform Method (PITM) is a combined form of the Laplace Transform Method and Perturbation Iteration Algorithm. The method provides the solution in the form of a rapidly convergent series. Some numerical examples are used to illustrate the preciseness and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the PITM is very efficient, simple and can be applied to other nonlinear problems.Publisher's Versio

PCR-Based Molecular Diagnosis of Hepatitis Virus (HBV and HDV) in HCV Infected Patients and Their Biochemical Study

Seroprevalence of HCV indicates that HCV is found in more than 10% of HBV-or HDV-infected patients worldwide leading to liver disease. Here we show HBV and HDV coinfection association with HCV infected Pakistani patients, study of disease severity, and possible interpretation of associated risk factors in coinfected patients. A total of 730 liver diseased patients were included, out of which 501 were found positive for HCV infection via PCR. 5.1% of patients were coinfected with HBV while 1% were coinfected with HBV and HDV both. LFTs were significantly altered in dually and triply infected patients as compared to single HCV infection. Mean bilirubin, AST, and ALT levels were highest (3.25 mg/dL, 174 IU/L, and 348 IU/L) in patients with triple infection while dual infection LFTs (1.6 mg/dL, 61 IU/L, and 74 IU/L) were not high as in single infection (1.9 mg/dL, 76 IU/L, and 91 IU/L). The most prominent risk factor in case of single (22%) and dual infection (27%) group was "reuse of syringes" while in triple infection it was "intravenous drug users" (60%). It is concluded that HBV and HDV coinfections are strongly associated with HCV infected Pakistani patients and in case of severe liver disease the possibility of double and triple coinfection should be kept in consideration

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens