Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050.

We aimed to characterize the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Jordan between 1990-2050, and to forecast the T2DM-related costs. A recently-developed population-level T2DM mathematical model was adapted and applied to Jordan. The model was fitted to six population-based survey data collected between 1990 and 2017. T2DM prevalence was 14.0% in 1990, and projected to be 16.0% in 2020, and 20.6% in 2050. The total predicted number of T2DM cases were 218,326 (12,313 were new cases) in 1990, 702,326 (36,941 were new cases) in 2020, and 1.9 million (79,419 were new cases) in 2050. Out of Jordan's total health expenditure, 19.0% in 1990, 21.1% in 2020, and 25.2% in 2050 was forecasted to be spent on T2DM. The proportion of T2DM incident cases attributed to obesity was 55.6% in 1990, 59.5% in 2020, and 62.6% in 2050. Meanwhile, the combined contribution of smoking and physical inactivity hovered around 5% between 1990 and 2050. Jordan's T2DM epidemic is predicted to grow sizably in the next three decades, driven by population ageing and high and increasing obesity levels. The national strategy to prevent T2DM needs to be strengthened by focusing it on preventive interventions targeting T2DM and key risk factors

Preterm low birthweight and the role of oral bacteria

Preterm and low birthweight (PTLBW) continues to be a major cause of mortality and morbidity across the world. In recent years, maternal periodontal disease has been implicated as a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. There is conflicting evidence to support such an outcome as illustrated by descriptive, case control and randomised controlled trials involving pregnant women from across the world, using different measurement tools to determine the level of periodontal disease. Whilst considering the literature, there is evidence for both arguments, based on the effect of periodontal inflammatory by products. Bacteria associated with periodontal disease are not dissimilar to those known to be associated with genito-urinary bacterial infections and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Several groups have demonstrated the apparent translocation of Fusobacterium nucleatum, Prevotella nigrescens, Prevotella intermedia, Porphyromonus gingivalis, Treponema denticola to the foetal placental unit whereby a maternal or foetal response has been detected resulting in premature birth or low birthweight. The normal process of parturition involves a cascade of events including a build-up of inflammatory mediators as linked to inflammation, whereby the maternal environment becomes hostile and threatens the well-being of the infant, and the foetus expelled. The question remains therefore, is there a greater risk of delivering a PTLBW infant when the mother has detectable periodontal disease, or is the release of inflammatory mediators and their translocation via the haematogenous route sufficient to induce a poor pregnancy outcome? The data investigated would suggest that there is a positive outcome when certain oral gram-negative bacteria create a cumulative effect sufficient to trigger early delivery, which represents the final straw to result in preterm or low birthweight delivery. There is equally sufficient epidemiological evidence that does not support this outcome, but it is agreed that maintaining oral health during pregnancy is beneficial to the mother and her infant

A cross-sectional study of different patterns of oral contraceptive use among premenopausal women and circulating IGF-1: implications for disease risk

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) is important in normal growth, development, and homeostasis. Current use of oral contraceptives (OC) decreases IGF-1 concentrations; however, the effect of past use, age/timing of use, and type of OC used on IGF-1 levels is unknown. OC are the most commonly used form of birth control worldwide. Both IGF-1 and OC use have been linked to premenopausal breast and colorectal cancers, osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Understanding the effects of different patterns of OC use on IGF-1 levels may offer insight into its influence on disease risk in young women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a cross-sectional study of 328 premenopausal women ages 18 to 21 and 31 to 40 we examined the relationship between different patterns of OC use and circulating IGF-1 using adjusted linear regression analysis. Information on OC use was obtained through an interviewer administered questionnaire. Plasma IGF-1 was assessed with enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among women aged 18 to 21, ever OC use was significantly associated with decreased IGF-1 levels compared to never use (β = -57.2 ng/ml, 95% confidence interval (CI): -88.7, -25.8). Among women aged 31 to 40, past users who first used OC at 25 years of age or older (β = 43.8 ng/ml, 95% CI: 8.8, 78.8), in the last 15 years (β = 35.1 ng/ml, 95% CI: 9.3, 61.0) or after 1995 (β = 46.6 ng/ml, 95% CI: 13.4, 79.8) had significantly higher IGF-1 levels compared to never users.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first study to highlight the long term effects of OC use after cessation on IGF-1 levels among premenopausal women, which previously were thought to be transitory. Future studies of past use and IGF-1 levels are required and must consider age/timing of use and type/generation of OC used. Additional studies are needed to confirm the potential mediation of IGF-1 levels in the links between OC use and health outcomes.</p

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Causes of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and the Role of Maternal Periodontal Status – A Review of the Literature

Preterm (PT) and Low birth weight (LBW) are considered to be the most relevant biological determinants of newborn infants survival, both in developed and in developing countries. Numerous risk factors for PT and LBW have been defined in the literature. Infections of the genitourinary tract infections along with various biological and genetic factors are considered to be the most common etiological factors for PT/LBW deliveries. However, evidence suggests that sub-clinical infection sites that are also distant from the genitor-urinary tract may be an important cause for PT/LBW deliveries. Maternal periodontal status has also been reported by many authors as a possible risk factor for PT and LBW, though not all of the actual data support such hypothesis. The aim of this paper is to review the evidence from various published literature on the association between the maternal periodontal status and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Although this review found a consistent association between periodontitis and PT/LBW, this finding should be treated with great caution until the sources of heterogeneity can be explained