Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers

Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security. ©2020. The Authors

Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 2: From eco-hydrology to water demand management

This second part of the paper presents the details of the eco-hydrological model SWIM simulating the natural water supply and its coupling to WBalMo, a water management model. Based on the climate scenarios of the STAR model, SWIM simulates the natural water and matter fluxes for the entire Elbe River area. All relevant processes are modelled for hydrotopes and the resulting discharges are accumulated in subbasins. The output data are input for the water management model WBalMo and the quality models Moneris and QSim. WBalMo takes storage management, inputs and withdrawals into account and analyses how demands by industry, power plants and households will be met at changing natural supply conditions. Some of the first results shall be presented here

Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 1: Project framework and impacts on agriculture

Central Europe, the focus region of this study, is a region in transition, climatically from maritime to continental and politically from formerly more planning-oriented to more market-oriented management regimes, and in terms of climate change from regions of increasing precipitation in the west and north of Europe to regions of decreasing precipitation in central and southern Europe. The Elbe basin, a trans-boundary catchment flowing from the Czech Republic through Germany into the North Sea, was selected to investigate the possible impacts of global change on crop yields and water resources in this region. For technical reasons, the paper has been split into two parts, the first showing the overall model concept, the model set-up for the agricultural sector, and first results linking eco-hydrological and agro-economic tools for the German part of the basin. The second part describes the model set-up for simulating water supply and demand linking eco-hydrological and water management tools for the entire basin including the Czech part

Potential for early forecast of Moroccan wheat yields based on climatic drivers

Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco' s wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out‐of‐sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean‐atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security

Human-computer interaction to human-computer-context interaction : towards a conceptual framework for conducting user studies for shifting interfaces

Computer interfaces have been diversifying: from mobile and wearable technologies to the human body as an interface. Moreover, new sensing possibilities have allowed input to interfaces to go beyond the traditional mouse- and keyboard. This has resulted in a shift from manifest to latent interactions, where interactions between the human and the computer are becoming less visible. Currently, there is no framework available that fully captures the complexity of the multidimensional, multimodal, often latent interactions with these constantly shifting interfaces. In this manuscript, the Hu-man-Computer-Context Interaction (HCCI) framework is proposed. This framework defines 5 relevant interaction levels to be considered during user research in all stages of the new product development process in order to optimize user experience. More specifically, the interaction context is defined in terms of user-object, user-user, user-content, user-platform and user-context interactions. The HCCI framework serves as a concrete tool to use in a new product development process by HCI researchers, design-ers, and developers and aims to be technology independent and future-proof. This framework is a preliminary suggestion to be matched against other innovation devel-opment projects and needs to be further validated

Operational flexibility options in power plants with integrated post-combustion capture

Flexibility in power plants with amine based carbon dioxide (CO2) capture is widely recognised as a way of improving power plant revenues. Despite the prior art, its value as a way to improve power plant revenues is still unclear. Most studies are based on simplifying assumptions about the capabilities of power plants to operate at part load and to regenerate additional solvent after interim storage of solvent. This work addresses this gap by examining the operational flexibility of supercritical coal power plants with amine based CO2 capture, using a rigorous fully integrated model. The part-load performance with capture and with additional solvent regeneration, of two coal-fired supercritical power plant configurations designed for base load operation with capture, and with the ability to fully bypass capture, is reported. With advanced integration options configuration, including boiler sliding pressure control, uncontrolled steam extraction with a floating crossover pressure, constant stripper pressure operation and compressor inlet guide vanes, a significant reduction of the electricity output penalty at part load is observed. For instance at 50% fuel input and 90% capture, the electricity output penalty reduces from 458 kWh/tCO2 (with conventional integration options) to 345 kWh/tCO2 (with advanced integration options), compared to a reduction from 361 kWh/tCO2 to 342 kWh/tCO2 at 100% fuel input and 90% capture. However, advanced integration options allow for additional solvent regeneration to a lower magnitude than conventional integration options. The latter can maintain CO2 flow export within 10% of maximum flow across 30–78% of MCR (maximum continuous rating). For this configuration, one hour of interim solvent storage at 100% MCR is evaluated to be optimally regenerated in 4 h at 55% MCR, and 3 h at 30% MCR, providing rigorously validated useful guidelines for the increasing number of techno-economic studies on power plant flexibility, and CO2 flow profiles for further studies on integrated CO2 networks

Therapeutic implications of improved molecular diagnostics for rare CNS-embryonal tumor entities: results of an international, retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Only few data are available on treatment-associated behavior of distinct rare CNS-embryonal tumor entities previously treated as "CNS-primitive neuroectodermal tumors" (CNS-PNET). Respective data on specific entities, including CNS neuroblastoma, FOXR2 activated (CNS NB-FOXR2), and embryonal tumor with multi-layered rosettes (ETMR) are needed for development of differentiated treatment strategies. METHODS: Within this retrospective, international study, tumor samples of clinically well-annotated patients with the original diagnosis of CNS-PNET were analyzed using DNA methylation arrays (n=307). Additional cases (n=66) with DNA methylation pattern of CNS NB-FOXR2 were included irrespective of initial histological diagnosis. Pooled clinical data (n=292) were descriptively analyzed. RESULTS: DNA methylation profiling of "CNS-PNET" classified 58(19%) cases as ETMR, 57(19%) as HGG, 36(12%) as CNS NB-FOXR2, and 89(29%) cases were classified into 18 other entities. Sixty-seven (22%) cases did not show DNA methylation patterns similar to established CNS tumor reference classes. Best treatment results were achieved for CNS NB-FOXR2 patients (5-year PFS: 63%±7%, OS: 85%±5%, n=63), with 35/42 progression-free survivors after upfront craniospinal irradiation (CSI) and chemotherapy. The worst outcome was seen for ETMR and HGG patients with 5-year PFS of 18%±6% and 22%±7%, and 5-year OS of 24%±6% and 25%±7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The historically reported poor outcome of CNS-PNET patients becomes highly variable when tumors are molecularly classified based on DNA methylation profiling. Patients with CNS NB-FOXR2 responded well to current treatments and a standard-risk-CSI based regimen may be prospectively evaluated. The poor outcome of ETMR across applied treatment strategies substantiates the necessity for evaluation of novel treatments

Chemokine Transfer by Liver Sinusoidal Endothelial Cells Contributes to the Recruitment of CD4+ T Cells into the Murine Liver

Leukocyte adhesion and transmigration are central features governing immune surveillance and inflammatory reactions in body tissues. Within the liver sinusoids, chemokines initiate the first crucial step of T-cell migration into the hepatic tissue. We studied molecular mechanisms involved in endothelial chemokine supply during hepatic immune surveillance and liver inflammation and their impact on the recruitment of CD4+ T cells into the liver. In the murine model of Concanavalin A-induced T cell-mediated hepatitis, we showed that hepatic expression of the inflammatory CXC chemokine ligands (CXCL)9 and CXCL10 strongly increased whereas homeostatic CXCL12 significantly decreased. Consistently, CD4+ T cells expressing the CXC chemokine receptor (CXCR)3 accumulated within the inflamed liver tissue. In histology, CXCL9 was associated with liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSEC) which represent the first contact site for T-cell immigration into the liver. LSEC actively transferred basolaterally internalized CXCL12, CXCL9 and CXCL10 via clathrin- coated vesicles to CD4+ T cells leading to enhanced transmigration of CXCR4+ total CD4+ T cells and CXCR3+ effector/memory CD4+ T cells, respectively in vitro. LSEC-expressed CXCR4 mediated CXCL12 transport and blockage of endothelial CXCR4 inhibited CXCL12-dependent CD4+ T-cell transmigration. In contrast, CXCR3 was not involved in the endothelial transport of its ligands CXCL9 and CXCL10. The clathrin-specific inhibitor chlorpromazine blocked endothelial chemokine internalization and CD4+ T-cell transmigration in vitro as well as migration of CD4+ T cells into the inflamed liver in vivo. Moreover, hepatic accumulation of CXCR3+ CD4+ T cells during T cell-mediated hepatitis was strongly reduced after administration of chlorpromazine. These data demonstrate that LSEC actively provide perivascularly expressed homeostatic and inflammatory chemokines by CXCR4- and clathrin-dependent intracellular transport mechanisms thereby contributing to the hepatic recruitment of CD4+ T-cell populations during immune surveillance and liver inflammation

Increasing stomatal conductance inresponse to rising atmospheric CO2

Background and Aims: Studies have indicated that plant stomatal conductance (gs) decreases in response to elevated atmospheric CO2, a phenomenon of significance for the global hydrological cycle. However, gs increases across certain CO2 ranges have been predicted by optimisation models. The aim of this work was to demonstrate that under certain environmental condition, gs can increase in response to elevated CO2. Methods: When using (i) an extensive, up-to-date, synthesis of gs responses in FACE experiments, (ii) in situ measurements across four biomes showing dynamic gs responses to a CO2 rise of ~50ppm (characterising the change in this greenhouse gas over the past three decades) and (iii) a photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model, it is demonstrated that gs can in some cases increase in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. Key Results: Field observations are corroborated by an extensive synthesis of gs responses in FACE experiments showing that 11.8% of gs responses under experimentally elevated CO2 are positive. They are further supported by a strong data-model fit (r2=0.607) using a stomatal optimization model applied to the field gs dataset. A parameter space identified in the Farquhar-Ball-Berry photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model confirms field observations of increasing gs under elevated CO2 in hot dry conditions. It was shown that contrary to the general assumption, positive gs responses to elevated CO2, although relatively rare, are a feature of woody taxa adapted to warm, low-humidity conditions, and that this response is also demonstrated in global simulations using the Community Land Model (CLM4). Conclusions: The results contradict the over-simplistic notion that global vegetation always responds with decreasing gs to elevated CO2, a finding that has important implications for predicting future vegetation feedbacks on the hydrological cycle at the regional level.Irish Research CouncilScience Foundation Irelan