Autonomous decision-making against induced seismicity in deep fluid injections

The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, conference (International Symposium on Energy Geotechnics, 26-28 September 2018, Lausanne, Switzerland

Depression and alcohol use among the Dutch residential home elderly: Is there a shared vulnerability?

The purpose of this article is to investigate whether data from an older population sample would support the co-occurrence between depression and (problematic) alcohol use found in the general population and in clinical samples. Additionally, important predictors concerning these phenomena are identified in this population, by interviewing 156 inhabitants of five residential homes (mean age 84 years), using several questionnaires. The results showed that there is no link present between depression and alcohol use in this very old, mostly female population. Our results found a relation between the personality traits extraversion and openness to experience with both depression as well as alcohol use. Neuroticism was only related to depressive symptoms. Chronic diseases was related to non-alcohol use and parental problem drinking was found to be a risk factor for late life problem drinking. Future studies should aim at developing screening instruments for alcohol use in this population and, because of the importance of the personality traits, aim at developing or adapting of psychotherapeutic interventions fit for this population. Keywords: Depression, alcohol use, older adults, residential homes, personalit

A nocturnal atmospheric loss of CH2I2 in the remote marine boundary layer.

Ocean emissions of inorganic and organic iodine compounds drive the biogeochemical cycle of iodine and produce reactive ozone-destroying iodine radicals that influence the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. Di-iodomethane (CH2I2) and chloro-iodomethane (CH2ICl) are the two most important organic iodine precursors in the marine boundary layer. Ship-borne measurements made during the TORERO (Tropical Ocean tRoposphere Exchange of Reactive halogens and Oxygenated VOC) field campaign in the east tropical Pacific Ocean in January/February 2012 revealed strong diurnal cycles of CH2I2 and CH2ICl in air and of CH2I2 in seawater. Both compounds are known to undergo rapid photolysis during the day, but models assume no night-time atmospheric losses. Surprisingly, the diurnal cycle of CH2I2 was lower in amplitude than that of CH2ICl, despite its faster photolysis rate. We speculate that night-time loss of CH2I2 occurs due to reaction with NO3 radicals. Indirect results from a laboratory study under ambient atmospheric boundary layer conditions indicate a k CH2I2+NO3 of ≤4 × 10-13 cm3 molecule-1 s-1; a previous kinetic study carried out at ≤100 Torr found k CH2I2+NO3 of 4 × 10-13 cm3 molecule-1 s-1. Using the 1-dimensional atmospheric THAMO model driven by sea-air fluxes calculated from the seawater and air measurements (averaging 1.8 +/- 0.8 nmol m-2 d-1 for CH2I2 and 3.7 +/- 0.8 nmol m-2 d-1 for CH2ICl), we show that the model overestimates night-time CH2I2 by >60 % but reaches good agreement with the measurements when the CH2I2 + NO3 reaction is included at 2-4 × 10-13 cm3 molecule-1 s-1. We conclude that the reaction has a significant effect on CH2I2 and helps reconcile observed and modeled concentrations. We recommend further direct measurements of this reaction under atmospheric conditions, including of product branching ratios.LJC acknowledges NERC (NE/J00619X/1) and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) for funding. The laboratory work was supported by the NERC React-SCI (NE/K005448/1) and RONOCO (NE/F005466/1) grants.This is the final version of the article. It was first available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10874-015-9320-

Variation in hepatitis B immunization coverage rates associated with provider practices after the temporary suspension of the birth dose

BACKGROUND: In 1999, the American Academy of Pediatrics and U.S. Public Health Service recommended suspending the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine due to concerns about potential mercury exposure. A previous report found that overall national hepatitis B vaccination coverage rates decreased in association with the suspension. It is unknown whether this underimmunization occurred uniformly or was associated with how providers changed their practices for the timing of hepatitis B vaccine doses. We evaluate the impact of the birth dose suspension on underimmunization for the hepatitis B vaccine series among 24-month-olds in five large provider groups and describe provider practices potentially associated with underimmunization following the suspension. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of children enrolled in five large provider groups in the United States (A-E). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between the birth dose suspension and a child's probability of being underimmunized at 24 months for the hepatitis B vaccine series. RESULTS: Prior to July 1999, the percent of children who received a hepatitis B vaccination at birth varied widely (3% to 90%) across the five provider groups. After the national recommendation to suspend the hepatitis B birth dose, the percent of children who received a hepatitis B vaccination at birth decreased in all provider groups, and this trend persisted after the policy was reversed. The most substantial decreases were observed in the two provider groups that shifted the first hepatitis B dose from birth to 5–6 months of age. Accounting for temporal trend, children in these two provider groups were significantly more likely to be underimmunized for the hepatitis B series at 24 months of age if they were in the birth dose suspension cohort compared with baseline (Group D OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 – 4.4; Group E OR 3.1, 95% CI 2.3 – 4.2). This represented 6% more children in Group D and 9% more children in Group E who were underimmunized in the suspension cohort compared with baseline. Children in the reversal cohort in these groups remained significantly more likely to be underimmunized compared with baseline. In contrast, in a third provider group where the typical timing of the third dose was unchanged and in two other provider groups whose hepatitis B vaccination schedules were unaffected by the birth dose suspension, hepatitis B vaccination coverage either was maintained or improved. CONCLUSION: When the hepatitis B birth dose was suspended, provider groups that moved the first dose of vaccination to 5–6 months of age or later had decreases in hepatitis B vaccine coverage at 24 months. These findings suggest that as vaccine policy changes occur, providers could attempt to minimize underimmunization by adopting vaccination schedules that minimize delays in the recommended timing of vaccine doses

The Relationship Between Alcohol Symptoms and Consumption Among Older Drinkers

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66310/1/j.1530-0277.1996.tb01104.x.pd

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on immunization coverage among infants

Background The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) to the U.S. recommended childhood immunization schedule in the year 2000 added three injections to the number of vaccinations a child is expected to receive during the first year of life. Surveys have suggested that the addition of PCV has led some immunization providers to move other routine childhood vaccinations to later ages, which could increase the possibility of missing these vaccines. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether introduction of PCV affected immunization coverage for recommended childhood vaccinations among 13-month olds in four large provider groups. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed computerized data on vaccinations for 33,319 children in four large provider groups before and after the introduction of PCV. The primary outcome was whether the child was up to date for all non-PCV recommended vaccinations at 13 months of age. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between PCV introduction and the primary outcome. The secondary outcome was the number of days spent underimmunized by 13 months. The association between PCV introduction and the secondary outcome was evaluated using a two-part modelling approach using logistic and negative binomial regression. Results Overall, 93% of children were up-to-date at 13 months, and 70% received all non-PCV vaccinations without any delay. Among the entire study population, immunization coverage was maintained or slightly increased from the pre-PCV to post-PCV periods. After multivariate adjustment, children born after PCV entered routine use were less likely to be up-to-date at 13 months in one provider group (Group C: OR = 0.5; 95% CI: 0.3 – 0.8) and were less likely to have received all vaccine doses without any delay in two Groups (Group B: OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3 – 0.6; Group C: OR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.4 – 0.7). This represented 3% fewer children in Group C who were up-to-date and 14% (Group C) to 16% (Group B) fewer children who spent no time underimmunized at 13 months after PCV entered routine use compared to the pre-PCV baseline. Some disruptions in immunization delivery were also observed concurrent with temporary recommendations to suspend the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine, preceding the introduction of PCV. Conclusion These findings suggest that the introduction of PCV did not harm overall immunization coverage rates in populations with good access to primary care. However, we did observe some disruptions in the timely delivery of other vaccines coincident with the introduction of PCV and the suspension of the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine. This study highlights the need for continued vigilance in coming years as the U.S. introduces new childhood vaccines and policies that may change the timing of existing vaccines

The pancreas in human type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is considered a disorder whose pathogenesis is autoimmune in origin, a notion drawn in large part from studies of human pancreata performed as far back as the 1960s. While studies of the genetics, epidemiology, and peripheral immunity in T1D have been subject to widespread analysis over the ensuing decades, efforts to understand the disorder through analysis of human pancreata have been far more limited. We have reviewed the published literature pertaining to the pathology of the human pancreas throughout all stages in the natural history of T1D. This effort uncovered a series of findings that challenge many dogmas ascribed to T1D and revealed data suggesting the marked heterogeneity in terms of its pathology. An improved understanding and appreciation for pancreatic pathology in T1D could lead to improved disease classification, an understanding of why the disorder occurs, and better therapies for disease prevention and management

Experience developing national evidence-based clinical guidelines for childhood pneumonia in a low-income setting - making the GRADE?

BACKGROUND: The development of evidence-based clinical practice guidelines has gained wide acceptance in high-income countries and reputable international organizations. Whereas this approach may be a desirable standard, challenges remain in low-income settings with limited capacity and resources for evidence synthesis and guideline development. We present our experience using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach for the recent revision of the Kenyan pediatric clinical guidelines focusing on antibiotic treatment of pneumonia. METHODS: A team of health professionals, many with minimal prior experience conducting systematic reviews, carried out evidence synthesis for structured clinical questions. Summaries were compiled and distributed to a panel of clinicians, academicians and policy-makers to generate recommendations based on best available research evidence and locally-relevant contextual factors. RESULTS: We reviewed six eligible articles on non-severe and 13 on severe/very severe pneumonia. Moderate quality evidence suggesting similar clinical outcomes comparing amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole for non-severe pneumonia received a strong recommendation against adopting amoxicillin. The panel voted strongly against amoxicillin for severe pneumonia over benzyl penicillin despite moderate quality evidence suggesting clinical equivalence between the two and additional factors favoring amoxicillin. Very low quality evidence suggesting ceftriaxone was as effective as the standard benzyl penicillin plus gentamicin for very severe pneumonia received a strong recommendation supporting the standard treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Although this exercise may have fallen short of the rigorous requirements recommended by the developers of GRADE, it was arguably an improvement on previous attempts at guideline development in low-income countries and offers valuable lessons for future similar exercises where resources and locally-generated evidence are scarce

Prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of physical activity levels among South African adults in Cape Town and Mount Frere communities in 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: Physical activity has been linked to reduced risk of various cardiometabolic disease, cancer, and premature mortality. We investigated the prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of physical activity among adults in urban and rural communities in South Africa. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey comprising 1733 adults aged ?35 years from the Cape Town (urban) and Mount Frere (rural) sites of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study. Physical activity was assessed using the validated International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to relate physical activity with socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 74% of participants engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. In the adjusted regression models, women were 34% less likely to engage in vigorous physical activity (OR =0.66, 95%-CI = 0.47-0.93). Physical activity decreased with age, varied with marital status, education and occupation, always in differential ways between urban and rural participants (all interactions p ? 0.047). For instance, in urban settings, those with secondary education were more likely to engage in moderate physical activity (OR = 2.06, 95%-CI = 1.08-3.92) than those with tertiary education. Single people were more likely to engage in high physical activity (OR = 2.10, 95%-CI = 1.03-4.28) than divorced. Overall, skilled participants were more likely to engage in vigorous physical activity (OR = 2.07, 95%-CI = 1.41-3.05) driven by significant effect in rural area (OR = 2.70, 95%-CI = 1.51-4.83). Urban participants were more likely to engage in moderate physical activity (OR = 1.67, 95%-CI = 1.31-2.13) than rural participants. CONCLUSIONS: To prevent chronic diseases among South Africans, attention should be paid to specific policies and interventions aimed at promoting PA among young adults in rural and urban setting, and across the social-economic diversity

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT