Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change

In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future

African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies

How grazing management can maximize erosion resistance of salt marshes

Combining natural saltmarsh habitats with conventional barriers can provide a sustainable and cost-effective alternative for fully engineered flood protection, provided that a minimal salt marsh width can be guaranteed for a long period. Hence, it is essential to understand both the key factors and management options driving the lateral erodibility/stability of salt marshes.We aimed to determine how salt marsh management (i.e. grazing by large vs. small grazers vs. artificial mowing), marsh elevation and marsh age affect soil stability (i.e. soil collapse) and intrinsic lateral erodibility of salt marshes (i.e. particle-by-particle detachment). Soil cores were collected in high and low marshes (above and below 0.5 m MHWL, respectively) of different ages. At these locations, we compared cores from grazed areas to cores inside grazer exclosures, with and without artificial mowing. All cores were exposed to waves in flumes to test their stability and lateral erodibility.All soil cores were characterized by a stable fine-grained layer deposited on top of readily erodible sand. The thickness of the fine-grained layer was a key parameter in reducing salt marsh instability (cliff collapse). This layer thickness increased with marsh age and at lower elevations, but decreased with cattle grazing due to compaction.The erosion resistance of the fine-grained layer increased with (a) large grazers that compacted the soil by trampling, (b) mowing that excluded soil-bioturbating species, and (c) grazing by small grazers that promoted vegetation types with higher root density.Synthesis and applications. Overall, marshes with thinner cohesive and/or fine-grained top layers are more sensitive to lateral erosion than marshes with deep cohesive soils, independently of the management. Grazing and artificial mowing can reduce the erodibility of fine-grained soils, making salt marshes more resilient to lateral erosion. However, compaction by large grazers simultaneously leads to thinner fine-grained layers and lower elevation, potentially leading to more inundation under sea-level rise. Hence, to effectively manage salt marshes to enhance their contribution to coastal protection, we recommend (a) moderate/rotational livestock grazing, avoiding high intensity grazing in sediment-poor systems sensitive to sea-level rise and (b) investigating measures to preserve small grazers.</p

More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change

Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme precipitation and meteorological tides, that is the superposition of storm surge and waves. This flooding can severely affect densely populated low-lying coastal areas. Here, combining output from climate and ocean models, we analyse the concurrence probability of the meteorological conditions driving compound flooding. We show that, under a high emissions scenario, the concurrence probability would increase globally by more than 25% by 2100 compared to present. In latitudes above 40o north, compound flooding could become more than 2.5 times as frequent, in contrast to parts of the subtropics where it would weaken. Changes in extreme precipitation and meteorological tides account for most (77% and 20%, respectively) of the projected change in concurrence probability. The evolution of the dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide dominates the uncertainty in the projections. Our results indicate that not accounting for these effects in adaptation planning could leave coastal communities insufficiently protected against flooding

Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs

Uncertainty and bias in global to regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risk

This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data

Variability in storm climate along the Gulf of Cadiz: the role of large scale atmospheric forcing and implications to coastal hazards

In the context of increased coastal hazards due to variability in storminess patterns, the danger of coastal damages and/or morphological changes is related to the sum of sea level conditions, storm surge, maximum wave height and run up values. In order to better understand the physical processes that cause the variability of the above parameters a 44 years reanalysis record (HIPOCAS) was used. The HIPOCAS time-series was validated with real wave and sea-level data using linear and vector correlation methods. In the present work changes in the magnitude, duration, frequency and approach direction of the Atlantic storms over the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) were identified by computing various storm characteristics such as maximum wave height, total energy per storm wave direction and storm duration. The obtained time-series were compared with large-scale atmospheric indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic pattern. The results show a good correlation between negative NAO values and increased storminess over the entire Gulf of Cadiz. Furthermore, negative NAO values were correlated with high residual sea level values. Finally, a joint probability analysis of storm and sea level analysis resulted in increased probabilities of the two events happening at the same time indicating higher vulnerability of the coast and increased coastal risks. The above results were compared with coastal inundation events that took place over the last winter seasons in the province of Cadiz.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Late Quaternary sea-level change and early human societies in the central and eastern Mediterranean Basin : an interdisciplinary review

This article reviews key data and debates focused on relative sea-level changes since the Last Interglacial (approximately the last 132,000 years) in the Mediterranean Basin, and their implications for past human populations. Geological and geomorphological landscape studies are critical to archaeology. Coastal regions provide a wide range of resources to the populations that inhabit them. Coastal landscapes are increasingly the focus of scholarly discussions from the earliest exploitation of littoral resources and early hominin cognition, to the inundation of the earliest permanently settled fishing villages and eventually, formative centres of urbanisation. In the Mediterranean, these would become hubs of maritime transportation that gave rise to the roots of modern seaborne trade. As such, this article represents an original review of both the geo-scientific and archaeological data that specifically relate to sea-level changes and resulting impacts on both physical and cultural landscapes from the Palaeolithic until the emergence of the Classical periods. Our review highlights that the interdisciplinary links between coastal archaeology, geomorphology and sea-level changes are important to explain environmental impacts on coastal human societies and human migration. We review geological indicators of sea level and outline how archaeological features are commonly used as proxies for measuring past sea levels, both gradual changes and catastrophic events. We argue that coastal archaeologists should, as a part of their analyses, incorporate important sea-level concepts, such as indicative meaning. The interpretation of the indicative meaning of Roman fishtanks, for example, plays a critical role in reconstructions of late Holocene Mediterranean sea levels. We identify avenues for future work, which include the consideration of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in addition to coastal tectonics to explain vertical movements of coastlines, more research on Palaeolithic island colonisation, broadening of Palaeolithic studies to include materials from the entire coastal landscape and not just coastal resources, a focus on rescue of archaeological sites under threat by coastal change, and expansion of underwater archaeological explorations in combination with submarine geomorphology. This article presents a collaborative synthesis of data, some of which have been collected and analysed by the authors, as the MEDFLOOD (MEDiterranean sea-level change and projection for future FLOODing) community, and highlights key sites, data, concepts and ongoing debates

A Pan-European high resolution storm surge hindcast

This contribution presents the high-resolution Pan-European storm surge (SSL) dataset, ANYEU-SSL, produced with the SCHISM circulation model. The dataset covers 40 years (1979–2018) of SSL data along the European coastline with 3-hour temporal resolution and has been extensively validated for the period spanning from 1979 to 2016, considering the whole time series, as well as for the extreme SSL values. Validation against tidal gauge data shows an average RMSE of 0.10 m, and RMSE below 0.12 m in 75% of the tidal gauges. Comparisons with satellite altimetry data show average RMSE of 0.07 m. SSL trends are estimated as an example of a potential application case of the dataset. The results indicate an overall latitudinal gradient in the trend of the extreme storm surge magnitude for the period 1979–2016. SSLs appear to increase in areas with latitudes &gt;50 °N and to decrease in the lower latitudes. Additionally, a seasonal variation of the extreme SSL, particularly strong in the northern areas, has been observed. The dataset is publicly available and aspires to provide the scientific community with an important data source for the study of storm surge phenomena and consequential impacts, either on large or local scales