A comprehensive stability indicator for banks

Stability indicators are essential to banks in order to identify instability caused by adverse economic circumstances or increasing risks such as customer defaults. This paper develops a novel comprehensive stability indicator (CSI) that can readily be used by individual banks, or by regulators to benchmark financial health across banks. The CSI incorporates the three key risk factors of Creditworthiness, Conditions and Capital (3Cs), using a traffic light system (green, orange and red) to classify bank risk. The CSI achieves similar outcomes in ranking the risk of 20 US banks to the much more complex US Federal Reserve Dodd–Frank stress tests

Cattle as a consistently resilient agricultural commodity

This study compares a range of agricultural commodities over periods of varying economic circumstances. These commodities are examined over three categories, including returns, risk, and contribution to portfolio optimisation. Consistency in these categories is determined over four equal three-year stages which comprise pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis), GFC, post-GFC and post-post GFC. To demonstrate resilience in the most extreme circumstances, the study uses Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), which measures extreme risk in the tail of a distribution, as the risk measure and risk-return optimiser. The study thus provides a unique and comprehensive extreme-risk based focus which identifies and ranks the consistency of performance of agricultural commodities over a range of criteria and conditions. Cattle commodities consistently demonstrate the strongest overall performance in the categories examined

Do nonparametric measures of extreme equity risk change the parametric ordinal ranking? Evidence from Asia

There has been much discussion in the literature about how central measures of equity risk such as standard deviation fail to account for extreme tail risk of equities. Similarly, parametric measures of value at risk (VaR) may also fail to account for extreme risk as they assume a normal distribution which is often not the case in practice. Nonparametric measures of extreme risk such as nonparametric VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR) have often been found to overcome this problem by measuring actual tail risk without applying any predetermined assumptions. However, this article argues that it is not just the actual risk of equites that is important to investor choices, but also the relative (ordinal) risk of equities compared to each other. Using an applied setting of industry portfolios in a variety of Asian countries (benchmarked to the United States), over crisis and non-crisis periods, this article finds that nonparametric measures of VaR and CVaR may provide only limited new information to investors about relative risk in the portfolios examined as there is a high degree of similarity found in relative industry risk when using nonparametric metrics as compared to central or parametric measures such as standard deviation and parametric VaR

Accounting-based variables as an early warning indicator of financial distress in crisis and non-crisis periods

Financial integration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a key focus of the ASEAN Economic Community. Whereas many studies focus on modelling corporate default, this paper identifies early warning indicators of financial distress before a default, using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) models with a sample of listed and delisted companies in the ASEAN region. The analysis examines 720 companies in 10 different industries across six ASEAN countries from 1997 to 2016. The study constructs individual models for each country as well as an overall model for the entire region, using both in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. This overall model could be useful for an integrated banking system. To ensure robustness, the study also separately examines the predictive performance of the MDA models across different economic crises: the Asian financial crisis (AFC) from 1997 to 2000, the global financial crisis (GFC) from 2007 to 2009 and their pre- and post-crisis periods. We find that profitability ratios are the best indicators of financial distress in the ASEAN region, followed by liquidity and leverage ratios. In addition, our findings reveal common indicators that can be used to predict financial distress across ASEAN countries. The single model performs reasonably well in predicting financial distress 1 year ahead. In addition, the model is extended to incorporate a market-based indicator into the MDA models, the distance to default. However, the inclusion of this indicator does not significantly improve the accuracy of the models in predicting financial distress at listed firms in the ASEAN region

Financial Inclusion and Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging and Frontier Markets

Financial inclusion, being considered as a key enabler to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity in emerging and frontier markets such as Vietnam, is the process in which individuals and small businesses are provided with an access to useful and affordable financial products and services. The extant literature on the empirical evidence regarding the contribution of financial inclusion to macroeconomic stability is mixed. This paper investigates the linkages between financial inclusion and macroeconomic stability, which has not yet been thoroughly examined in the literature, for 22 emerging and frontier economies from 2008 to 2015, with particular focus on a potential optimal level. Using the panel threshold estimation technique, the empirical findings show that financial inclusion, as approximated by the growth rate in the number of bank branches over 100,000 account holders, is found to enhance financial stability under a certain threshold. Financial inclusion is also found to be of benefit to maintaining stable inflation and output growth. Policy implications are also discussed on the basis of the important empirical findings

Features of trastuzumab-related cardiac dysfunction: deformation analysis outside left ventricular global longitudinal strain

BackgroundCancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction due to trastuzumab has been well-known for many years, and echocardiographic surveillance is recommended every 3 months in patients undergoing trastuzumab treatment, irrespective of the baseline cardiotoxicity risk. However, the potential harm and cost of overscreening in low- and moderate-risk patients have become great concerns.ObjectivesThis study aimed to identify the incidence of early cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD) and the behaviours of left and right heart deformations during trastuzumab chemotherapy in low- and moderate-risk patients.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled 110 anthracycline-naïve women with breast cancer and cardiovascular risk factors who were scheduled to receive trastuzumab. The left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS), and right ventricular and left atrial longitudinal strains were evaluated using echocardiography at baseline, before every subsequent cycle and 3 weeks after the final dose of trastuzumab. The baseline risk of CTRCD was graded according to the risk score proposed by the Heart Failure Association (HFA) Cardio-Oncology Working Group and the International Cardio-Oncology Society (ICOS). CTRCD and its severity were defined according to the current European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines.ResultsTwelve (10.9%) patients had asymptomatic CTRCD. All CTRCD occurred sporadically during the first 9 months of the active trastuzumab regimen in both low- and moderate-risk patients. While CTRCD was graded as moderate severity in 41.7% of patients and heart failure therapy was initiated promptly, no irreversible cardiotoxicity or trastuzumab interruption was recorded at the end of follow-up. Among the left and right heart deformation indices, only LV-GLS decreased significantly in the CTRCD group during the trastuzumab regimen.ConclusionsCTRCD is prevalent in patients with non-high-risk breast cancer undergoing trastuzumab chemotherapy. Low- and moderate-risk patients show distinct responses to trastuzumab. The LV-GLS is the only deformation index sensitive to early trastuzumab-related cardiac dysfunction

Evaluation of microscopic observation drug susceptibility assay for diagnosis of multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis in Viet Nam

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) is important for the elimination of TB. We evaluated the microscopic observation drug susceptibility (MODS) assay as a direct rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST) method for MDR-TB screening in sputum samples</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All adult TB suspects, who were newly presenting to Pham Ngoc Thach Hospital from August to November 2008 were enrolled into the study. Processed sputum samples were used for DST by MODS (DST-MODS) (Rifampicin (RIF) 1 μg/ml and Isoniazid (INH) 0.4 μg/ml), MGIT culture (Mycobacterial Growth Indicator Tube) and Lowenstein Jensen (LJ) culture. Cultures positive by either MGIT or LJ were used for proportional DST (DST-LJ) (RIF 40 μg/ml and INH 0.2 μg/ml). DST profiles on MODS and LJ were compared. Discrepant results were resolved by multiplex allele specific PCR (MAS-PCR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seven hundred and nine TB suspects/samples were enrolled into the study, of which 300 samples with DST profiles available from both MODS and DST-LJ were analyzed. Cording in MODS was unable to correctly identify 3 Mycobacteria Other Than Tuberculosis (MOTT) isolates, resulting in 3 false positive TB diagnoses. None of these isolates were identified as MDR-TB by MODS. The sensitivity and specificity of MODS were 72.6% (95%CI: 59.8, 83.1) and 97.9% (95%CI: 95.2, 99.3), respectively for detection of INH resistant isolates, 72.7% (95%CI: 30.9, 93.7) and 99.7% (95%CI: 98.1, 99.9), respectively for detecting RIF resistant isolates and 77.8% (95%CI: 39.9, 97.1) and 99.7% (95%CI: 98.1, 99.9), respectively for detecting MDR isolates. The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of DST-MODS were 87.5% (95%CI: 47.3, 99.6) and 99.3% (95%CI: 97.5, 99.9) for detection of MDR isolates; and the agreement between MODS and DST-LJ was 99.0% (kappa: 0.8, <it>P </it>< 0.001) for MDR diagnosis. The low sensitivity of MODS for drug resistance detection was probably due to low bacterial load samples and the high INH concentration (0.4 μg/ml). The low PPV of DST-MODS may be due to the low MDR-TB rate in the study population (3.8%). The turnaround time of DST-MODS was 9 days and 53 days for DST-LJ.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The DST-MODS technique is rapid with low contamination rates. However, the sensitivity of DST-MODS for detection of INH and RIF resistance in this study was lower than reported from other settings.</p

A Multi-Center Randomized Trial to Assess the Efficacy of Gatifloxacin versus Ciprofloxacin for the Treatment of Shigellosis in Vietnamese Children

The bacterial genus Shigella is the most common cause of dysentery (diarrhea containing blood and/or mucus) and the disease is common in developing countries with limitations in sanitation. Children are most at risk of infection and frequently require hospitalization and antimicrobial therapy. The WHO currently recommends the fluoroquinolone, ciprofloxacin, for the treatment of childhood Shigella infections. In recent years there has been a sharp increase in the number of organisms that exhibit resistance to nalidixic acid (an antimicrobial related to ciprofloxacin), corresponding with reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin. We hypothesized that infections with Shigella strains that demonstrate resistance to nalidixic acid may prevent effective treatment with ciprofloxacin. We performed a randomized controlled trial to compare 3 day ciprofloxacin therapy with 3 days of gatifloxacin, a newer generation fluoroquinolone with greater activity than ciprofloxacin. We measured treatment failure and time to the cessation of individual disease symptoms in 249 children with dysentery treated with gatifloxacin and 245 treated with ciprofloxacin. We could identify no significant differences in treatment failure between the two groups or in time to the cessation of individual symptoms. We conclude that, in Vietnam, ciprofloxacin and gatifloxacin are similarly effective for the treatment of acute dysentery

Search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with tau leptons in √s=13 TeV collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with at least two hadronically decaying tau leptons is presented. The analysis uses a dataset of pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13TeV.Nosignificant deviation from the expected Standard Model background is observed. Limits are derived in scenarios of ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 pair production and of ˜χ±1 ˜χ02 and ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 production in simplified models where the neutralinos and charginos decay solely via intermediate left-handed staus and tau sneutrinos, and the mass of the ˜ τL state is set to be halfway between the masses of the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01. Chargino masses up to 630 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in the scenario of direct production of ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 for a massless ˜χ01. Common ˜χ±1 and ˜χ02 masses up to 760 GeV are excluded in the case of production of ˜χ±1 ˜χ02 and ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 assuming a massless ˜χ01. Exclusion limits for additional benchmark scenarios with large and small mass-splitting between the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01 are also studied by varying the ˜ τL mass between the masses of the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01