Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Second Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation as Salvage Therapy for Multiple Myeloma: Impact on Progression-Free and Overall Survival

The role of a second autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) as salvage therapy is unclear, particularly with the availability of novel agents to treat progressive multiple myeloma (MM). We retrospectively reviewed all MM patients who received a second ASCT as salvage therapy at our center from March 1992 to December 2009. Eighty-one MM patients received a second ASCT for relapsed MM. The median time to relapse after first transplant was 39 months (9.83-100). All patients received reinduction therapy before the second ASCT. The high-dose regimen given before the second ASCT consisted of melphalan (MEL) alone in the majority. Complete response, very good partial response, and partial response were seen in 7.7%, 39.7%, and 50%, respectively, at day 100 post-ASCT; the median time to relapse after the second ASCT was 19 months. Early deaths occurred in 2.6%. Median progression-free survival (PFS) based on the time to myeloma relapse after first ASCT was 9.83 months (relapse ≤24 months) and 17.3 months (relapse ≥24 months) (P < .05). Median overall survival (OS) was 28.47 months (relapse ≤24 months) and 71.3 months (relapse >24 months) (P = .006). Second ASCT is a feasible and safe option for salvage therapy in MM. The best outcome was observed in patients whose time to progression was >24 months after first ASCT, as these patients had a subsequent PFS lasting over 1 year and an OS of almost 6 years

Sequential Use of Carfilzomib and Pomalidomide in Relapsed Multiple Myeloma: A Report from the Canadian Myeloma Research Group (CMRG) Database

The treatment of multiple myeloma has dramatically improved due to the availability of novel therapies that are highly effective and are quickly moving into first-line therapy. The Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) recently recommended that patients who receive daratumumab should only be eligible to receive either carfilzomib or pomalidomide but not both, for relapsed MM. In order to assess the efficacy of these two agents in the relapsed setting, we utilized our national myeloma database. A total of 121 patients were reviewed, 49 patients received CAR- before POM-based (CAR-POM), and 73 patients received POM- before CAR-based (POM-CAR) therapy. In the groups selected, the median PFS was 4.93 months (95% CI, 2.76&ndash;7.07) and 5.36 months (95% CI, 3.75&ndash;6.94) for CAR-POM and POM-CAR, respectively. The median OS for patients treated with CAR-POM was 11.01 months (95% CI, 4.50&ndash;19.13), and for patients treated with POM-CAR the median OS was 10.98 months (95% CI, 8.98&ndash;19.17). In this real-world observational study, we demonstrated that both CAR- and POM-based therapies, irrespective of the order in which they were used, were effective treatment options for patients with advanced relapsed MM

Carfilzomib usage patterns and outcomes in patients with relapsed multiple myeloma: A multi‐institutional report from the Canadian Myeloma Research Group (CMRG) Database

Abstract Carfilzomib is an active and commonly used treatment in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). Using the Canadian Myeloma Research Group Database, we performed a retrospective observational study of patients treated with carfilzomib for relapse of MM in a real‐world setting in Canada between years 2007 and 2020. A total of 445 patients were included in this study: the doublet (Kd/p, n = 218) and triplets (KCd, n = 88; KRd, n = 99; KPd/p, n = 40). One hundred and twenty‐two (27%) received carfilzomib‐based treatment in line 2, 133 (30%) in line 3, 90 (20%) in line 4, and 100 (23%) in line 5 or higher. Carfilzomib was dosed weekly in 40% of patients and twice weekly in 60%. The overall response rate of the entire cohort was 57.7%, with 33.6% of patients achieving very good partial response or better. Median progression‐free survival for the overall cohort was 6.3 months with overall survival 19.7 months. This study provides a benchmark for carfilzomib‐based regimens in the real world, demonstrating that these regimens are effective in treating patients with relapsed MM

Redefining attrition in multiple myeloma (MM): a Canadian Myeloma Research Group (CMRG) analysis

Abstract While most patients diagnosed with multiple myeloma (MM) receive initial therapy, reported attrition rates are high. Understanding attrition rates and characteristics of patients not receiving subsequent therapy is useful for MM stakeholders. We performed an analysis of attrition rates in a large disease-specific database of patients with newly diagnosed MM who received at least one line of therapy between Jan 1/10-Dec 31/20. Attrition was defined as failure to receive a subsequent line of therapy despite progression of MM or due to death. A total of 5548 patients were identified, 3111 autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) patients and 2437 non-ASCT. In the ASCT cohort, the attrition rate was 7% after line 1, 12% after line 2, and 23% after line 3. In non-ASCT patients, the attrition rate was 19% after line 1, 26% after line 2, and 40% after line 3. Death was the dominant contributor to attrition across all cohorts, with a minority of patients alive with progressive disease in the absence of further therapy at each line. Multivariable analysis identified older age, shorter time to progression, and inferior response as independent risk factors for attrition. Our data show that attrition rates increase with each line of therapy and are higher in non-ASCT patients but are appreciably lower than previously reported. This study supports a revision of the previous definition of attrition, demonstrating that most patients who do not receive subsequent therapy are either continuing their current therapy and/or are in remission off-treatment rather than being irreversibly lost to attrition