Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention

Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on ‘expert’- and ‘literature-based’ analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate

The emergence of circular economy: a new framing around prolonging resource productivity

In this article we use Hirsch and Levin’s (1999) notion of ‘umbrella concepts’ as an analytical lens, in order to articulate the valuable catalytic function the circular economy concept could perform in the waste and resource management debate. We realize this goal by anchoring the circular economy concept in this broader debate through a narrative approach. This leads to the insight that while the various resource strategies grouped under circular economy’s banner are not new individually, the concept offers a new framing of these strategies by drawing attention to their capacity of prolonging resource use as well as to the relationship between these strategies. As such, circular economy offers a new perspective on waste and resource management and provides a new cognitive unit and discursive space for debate. We conclude by discussing research opportunities for the IE community relating to the concept’s theoretical development and its implementation. Specifically, we pose that reinvigorating and growing the social science aspects of IE is required for both. After all, it is the wide adoption and collective implementation of an idea that shapes our material future

Scenario Planning and Nanotechnological Futures

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision-making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios

Water quality and its interlinkages with the Sustainable Development Goals

Interlinkages among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) lead to important trade-offs and synergies among the goals and their underlying targets. The aim of this paper is to review the role of water quality as an agent of interlinkages among the SDGs. It was found that there are a small number of explicit interconnections, but many more inferred interlinkages between water quality and various targets. A review of case studies showed that interlinkages operate from the municipal to near global scales, that their importance is likely to increase in developing countries, and that new SDG indicators are needed to monitor them. The analysis identifies many different SDG target areas where a combined effort between the water quality community and other sectors would bring mutual benefits in achieving the water quality and other targets

A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission

Three uncertainty assessments associated with the global total of carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuel use and cement production are presented. Each assessment has its own strengths and weaknesses and none give a full uncertainty assessment of the emission estimates. This approach grew out of the lack of independent measurements at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Issues of dependent and independent data are considered as well as the temporal and spatial relationships of the data. The result is a multifaceted examination of the uncertainty associated with fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission estimates. The three assessments collectively give a range that spans from 1.0 to 13% (2 σ). Greatly simplifying the assessments give a global fossil fuel carbon dioxide uncertainty value of 8.4% (2 σ). In the largest context presented, the determination of fossil fuel emission uncertainty is important for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and its implications for the physical, economic and political world

Planetary Boundaries and Sustainability Indicators. A Survey of Corporate Reporting Boundaries

The aim of this research is two fold: (a) to inquire into the methodological foundations of boundary setting for improved sustainability reporting and (b) to explore current corporate practice in this area, with a particular emphasis on environmental indicators. The paper contends that the boundaries of significant sustainability indicators should encompass all entities over which there is sustainability control, together with indirect impacts arising from activities across the supply chain, and not merely direct impacts caused by entities within boundaries based on financial control. The paper explores, through an empirical study of the sustainability reports disclosed by some of the top FT500 companies, how corporations are setting environmental boundaries in practice. Results show a lack of ambition in the practice of setting organizational and operational boundaries. Most reporting entities define organizational boundaries restricted to financial control, and most of the indirect environmental impacts sought remain undisclose