Project management under uncertainty

Morris' (1986) analysis of the factors affecting project success and failure is considered in relation to the psychology of judgement under uncertainty. A model is proposed whereby project managers may identify the specific circumstances in which human decision-making is prone to systematic error, and hence may apply a number of de-biasing techniques

Development and validation of detailed building, plant and controller modelling to demonstrate interactive behaviour of system components

As plant modelling becomes capable of more complexity and detailed resolution, new opportunities arise for the virtual evaluation of discrete plant components such as flow control and energy conversion devices, and controllers. Such objects are conventionally developed and tested at the prototype stage in a laboratory environment. Designers now seek to use modelling technology to extend their understanding from limited laboratory test results to full building and plant system analysis. This paper describes the development of a modelling system, using ESP-r, for typical United Kingdom domestic house types with hydronic gas or oil fired central heating including radiator and underfloor heating systems, and with a variety of conventional or advanced control types. It demonstrates the ability of detailed building and plant modelling to reveal unexpected insights into how real control systems perform in combination with other plant items and in different building types, including estimation of their influence on annual energy consumption. Comparisons with measurements taken in test rooms confirm that the observed behaviour of controls is realised in practice. The authors conclude that the complex dynamic interactions that take place between the various elements that make up a real building energy system have an important influence on its overall energy performance, revealing causes of variance that cannot be identified by laboratory testing alone, or by simplistic energy assessment tools

Quantifying distortions in two-photon remote focussing microscope images using a volumetric calibration specimen

This Document is Protected by copyright and was first published by Frontiers. All rights reserved. it is reproduced with permission.Remote focussing microscopy allows sharp, in-focus images to be acquired at high speed from outside of the focal plane of an objective lens without any agitation of the specimen. However, without careful optical alignment, the advantages of remote focussing microscopy could be compromised by the introduction of depth-dependent scaling artifacts. To achieve an ideal alignment in a point-scanning remote focussing microscope, the lateral (XY) scan mirror pair must be imaged onto the back focal plane of both the reference and imaging objectives, in a telecentric arrangement. However, for many commercial objective lenses, it can be difficult to accurately locate the position of the back focal plane. This paper investigates the impact of this limitation on the fidelity of three-dimensional data sets of living cardiac tissue, specifically the introduction of distortions. These distortions limit the accuracy of sarcomere measurements taken directly from raw volumetric data. The origin of the distortion is first identified through simulation of a remote focussing microscope. Using a novel three-dimensional calibration specimen it was then possible to quantify experimentally the size of the distortion as a function of objective misalignment. Finally, by first approximating and then compensating the distortion in imaging data from whole heart rodent studies, the variance of sarcomere length (SL) measurements was reduced by almost 50%.Medical Research Council (MRC)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, Oxfor

The chemokine receptor CXCR2 and coronavirus-induced neurologic disease.

Inoculation with the neurotropic JHM strain of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) into the central nervous system (CNS) of susceptible strains of mice results in an acute encephalomyelitis in which virus preferentially replicates within glial cells while excluding neurons. Control of viral replication during acute disease is mediated by infiltrating virus-specific T cells via cytokine secretion and cytolytic activity, however sterile immunity is not achieved and virus persists resulting in chronic neuroinflammation associated with demyelination. CXCR2 is a chemokine receptor that upon binding to specific ligands promotes host defense through recruitment of myeloid cells to the CNS as well as protecting oligodendroglia from cytokine-mediated death in response to MHV infection. These findings highlight growing evidence of the diverse and important role of CXCR2 in regulating neuroinflammatory diseases

Living with an autonomous spatiotemporal home heating system: exploration of the user experiences (UX) through a longitudinal technology intervention-based mixed-methods approach

Rising energy demands place pressure on domestic energy consumption, but savings can be delivered through home automation and engaging users with their heating and energy behaviours. The aim of this paper is to explore user experiences (UX) of living with an automated heating system regarding experiences of control, understanding of the system, emerging thermal behaviours, and interactions with the system as this area is not sufficiently researched in the existing homes setting through extended deployment. We present a longitudinal deployment of a quasi-autonomous spatiotemporal home heating system in three homes. Users were provided with a smartphone control application linked to a self-learning heating algorithm. Rich qualitative and quantitative data presented here enabled a holistic exploration of UX. The paper's contribution focuses on highlighting key aspects of UX living with an automated heating systems including (i) adoption of the control interface into the social context, (ii) how users' vigilance in maintaining preferred conditions prevailed as a better indicator of system over-ride than gross deviation from thermal comfort, (iii) limited but motivated proactivity in system-initiated communications as best strategy for soliciting user feedback when inference fails, and (iv) two main motivations for interacting with the interface – managing irregularities when absent from the house and maintaining immediate comfort, latter compromising of a checking behaviour that can transit to a system state alteration behaviour depending on mismatches. We conclude by highlighting the complex socio-technical context in which thermal decisions are made in a situated action manner, and by calling for a more holistic, UX-focused approach in the design of automated home systems involving user experiences

The Metabolomic-Gut-Clinical Axis of Mankai Plant-Derived Dietary Polyphenols

Background: Polyphenols are secondary metabolites produced by plants to defend themselves from environmental stressors. We explored the effect of Wolffia globosa ‘Mankai’, a novel cultivated strain of a polyphenol-rich aquatic plant, on the metabolomic-gut clinical axis in vitro, in-vivo and in a clinical trial. Methods: We used mass-spectrometry-based metabolomics methods from three laboratories to detect Mankai phenolic metabolites and examined predicted functional pathways in a Mankai artificial-gut bioreactor. Plasma and urine polyphenols were assessed among the 294 DIRECT-PLUS 18-month trial participants, comparing the effect of a polyphenol-rich green-Mediterranean diet (+1240 mg/polyphenols/day, provided by Mankai, green tea and walnuts) to a walnuts-enriched (+440 mg/polyphenols/day) Mediterranean diet and a healthy controlled diet. Results: Approximately 200 different phenolic compounds were specifically detected in the Mankai plant. The Mankai-supplemented bioreactor artificial gut displayed a significantly higher relative-abundance of 16S-rRNA bacterial gene sequences encoding for enzymes involved in phenolic compound degradation. In humans, several Mankai-related plasma and urine polyphenols were differentially elevated in the green Mediterranean group compared with the other groups (p < 0.05) after six and 18 months of intervention (e.g., urine hydroxy-phenyl-acetic-acid and urolithin-A; plasma Naringenin and 2,5-diOH-benzoic-acid). Specific polyphenols, such as urolithin-A and 4-ethylphenol, were directly involved with clinical weight-related changes. Conclusions: The Mankai new plant is rich in various unique potent polyphenols, potentially affecting the metabolomic-gut-clinical axis

Applications of power to gas technologies in emerging electrical systems

Abstract The energy sector is undergoing substantial changes in order to promote better efficiency, increase the use of renewable energy, reduce emissions and effectively deploy technologies to trade off costs and benefits One emerging solution is the application of the Power-to-Gas technology, which can be used for different purposes. In recent years, Power-to-Gas has been studied to understand the role it could play in the electrical system. This paper has the aims of analysing the existing literature about the Power-to-Gas technology in detail, by considering some solutions that have a direct impact on the electrical system (in particular electrolyser and CO2 production) and applications in the different sectors of the electricity value chain (i.e., generation, transmission, distribution and utilisation). This paper sets out the conceptual aspects that are necessary to include Power-to-Gas facilities in a more comprehensive analysis framework of the operation of the electrical system in various sectors. Some perspectives concerning new Power-to-Gas applications are also presented for each sector, and some promising aspects that are expected to play a relevant role in the future technical and economic evolution of electrical systems are discussed

Panorganismal metabolic response modeling of an experimental Echinostoma caproni infection in the mouse.

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Prebiotic potential of a maize-based soluble fibre and impact of dose on the human gut microbiota

Dietary management of the human gut microbiota towards a more beneficial composition is one approach that may improve host health. To date, a large number of human intervention studies have demonstrated that dietary consumption of certain food products can result in significant changes in the composition of the gut microbiota i.e. the prebiotic concept. Thus the prebiotic effect is now established as a dietary approach to increase beneficial gut bacteria and it has been associated with modulation of health biomarkers and modulation of the immune system. Promitor™ Soluble Corn Fibre (SCF) is a well-known maize-derived source of dietary fibre with potential selective fermentation properties. Our aim was to determine the optimum prebiotic dose of tolerance, desired changes to microbiota and fermentation of SCF in healthy adult subjects. A double-blind, randomised, parallel study was completed where volunteers (n = 8/treatment group) consumed 8, 14 or 21 g from SCF (6, 12 and 18 g/fibre delivered respectively) over 14-d. Over the range of doses studied, SCF was well tolerated Numbers of bifidobacteria were significantly higher for the 6 g/fibre/day compared to 12g and 18g/fibre delivered/day (mean 9.25 and 9.73 Log10 cells/g fresh faeces in the pre-treatment and treatment periods respectively). Such a numerical change of 0.5 Log10 bifidobacteria/g fresh faeces is consistent with those changes observed for inulin-type fructans, which are recognised prebiotics. A possible prebiotic effect of SCF was therefore demonstrated by its stimulation of bifidobacteria numbers in the overall gut microbiota during a short-term intervention