First report of bioaccumulation and bioconcentration of aliphatic hydrocarbons (AHs) and persistent organic pollutants (PAHs, PCBs and PCNs) and their effects on alcyonacea and scleractinian corals and their endosymbiotic algae from the Persian Gulf, Iran

The coral reefs of the Persian Gulf are the most diverse systems of life in the marine environment of the Middle East. Unfortunately, they are highly threatened by local and global stressors, particularly oil pollutants. This is the first quantitative and qualitative study aimed at assessing the concentration and sources of n-alkanes and POPs (PAHs, PCBs and PCNs) in coral tissues, symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae), reef sediments and seawaters in coral reefs of Lark and Kharg in the Persian Gulf, Iran. This work was conducted on eight species of six genera and three families of hard corals and one family of soft coral. A significant variation in the concentration of Σ30n-alkanes and POPs (Σ40PAHs, Σ22PCBs and 20PCNs) was found in the decreasing order: zooxanthellae > coral tissue > skeleton > reef sediment > seawater. The bioaccumulation of these compounds was 2-times higher in ahermatypic than in hermatypic corals, among which significant variations were observed in both sites. In Kharg, Porites lutea had the highest mean concentration of Σ30n-alkanes and Σ40PAHs in soft tissue, whereas the lowest values were in Platygyra daedalea. A contrasting trend was documented for Σ22PCBs and 20PCNs, with the highest level reported in soft tissue of P. daedalea and the lowest in P. lutea at Kharg. Compositional pattern of AHs and PAHs demonstrated the predominance of LMW-PAHs and n-alkanes. In skeleton and reef sediments, tetra, penta and tri-CBs were the most abundant PCBs congeners followed by di-CB > hexa-CB > hepta-CB > octa-CB,whiletri-CB > di-CB > tetra-CB > penta-CB > hexa-CB > hepta-CB > octa-CB was observed for soft tissue, zooxanthellae and seawater. The results of RAD test indicated significantly negative correlation between total concentration of these compounds with zooxanthellae density, the chlorophyll-a and C2 in corals at both reefs. This is the first report on levels, health assessment and source apportionments of POPs in zooxanthellae and a first step in the implementation of specific coral reef management measures

Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios

Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at global/regional scales, together with the wide range of GCMs available, selecting appropriate models is of great importance. In this study, six synoptic weather stations were selected as representative of different climatic zones over Iran. Utilizing monthly data for 20 years (1981–2000), the outputs of 25 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were evaluated for the historical period. The root-mean-square error and skill score were chosen to evaluate the performance of GCMs in capturing observed seasonal climate. Finally, the outputs of selected GCMs for the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCPs), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were downscaled using the change factor method for each station for the period 2046–2065. Results indicate that SAT in all months is likely to increase for each region, while for precipitation, large uncertainties emerge, despite the selection of climate models that best capture the observed seasonal cycle. These results highlight the importance of selecting a representative ensemble of GCMs for assessing future hydro-climatic changes for Iran

River basin-scale flood hazard assessment using a modified multi-criteria decision analysis approach: A case study

Flood is a major natural hazard with extremely large impact on social-ecological systems. Therefore, developing reliable and efficient tools to identify areas vulnerable to potential flooding is vital for water managers, engineers and decision makers. Moreover, being able to accurately classify the level of hazard is a step forward towards more efficient flood hazard mapping. This study presents a multi-criteria index approach to classify potential flood hazards at the river basin scale. The presented methodology was implemented in the Mashhad Plain basin in North-east Iran, where flood has been a major issue in the last few decades. In the present study, seven factors, selected based on their greater influence towards flooding, were identified and extracted from the basic thematic layers to be used to generate a five-class Flood Hazard Index (FHI) map. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a runoff coefficient map, which was found to be the most influential factor. A sensitivity analysis was performed and the results incorporated to generate a modified Flood Hazard Index (mFHI) map. The accuracy of the proposed method was evaluated against the well-documented flood records in the last 42 years at the study area. The results showed that, for both FHI and mFHI maps, more than 97% of historical flood events have occurred in moderate to very high flood hazard areas. This demonstrates that incorporating hydrological model (such as SWAT) and multi-criteria analysis introduces a robust methodology to generate comprehensive potential flood hazard maps. Moreover, the proposed modified methodology can be used to identify high potential flood hazard zones and work towards more efficient flood management and mitigation strategies

Non-Stationary Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Resilient Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate: A Case Study in Sydney

The intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve is a commonly utilized tool for estimating extreme rainfall events that are used for many purposes including flood analysis. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense under the changing climate, and there is a need to account for non-stationarity IDF curves to mitigate an underestimation of the risks associated with extreme rainfall events. Sydney, Australia, has recently started experiencing flooding under climate change and more intense rainfall events. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on altering the precipitation frequency estimates (PFs) used in generating IDF curves at Sydney Airport. Seven general circulation models (GCMs) were obtained, and the best models in terms of providing the extreme series were selected. The ensemble of the best models was used for comparing the projected 24 h PFs in 2031–2060 with historical values provided by Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR). The historical PFs consistently underestimate the projected 24 h PFs for all return periods. The projected 24 h 100 yr rainfall events are increased by 9% to 41% for the least and worst-case scenario compared to ARR historical PFs. These findings highlight the need for incorporating the impact of climate change on PFs and IDF curves in Sydney toward building a more prepared and resilient community. The findings of this study can also aid other communities in adapting the same framework for developing more robust and adaptive approaches to reducing extreme rainfall events’ repercussions under changing climates

First report of bioaccumulation and bioconcentration of aliphatic hydrocarbons (AHs) and persistent organic pollutants (PAHs, PCBs and PCNs) and their effects on alcyonacea and scleractinian corals and their endosymbiotic algae from the Persian Gulf, Iran: Inter and intra-species differences

The coral reefs of the Persian Gulf are the most diverse systems of life in the marine environment of the Middle East. Unfortunately, they are highly threatened by local and global stressors, particularly oil pollutants. This is the first quantitative and qualitative study aimed at assessing the concentration and sources of n-alkanes and POPs (PAHs, PCBs and PCNs) in coral tissues, symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae), reef sediments and seawaters in coral reefs of Lark and Kharg in the Persian Gulf, Iran. This work was conducted on eight species of six genera and three families of hard corals and one family of soft coral. A significant variation in the concentration of Σ30n-alkanes and POPs (Σ40PAHs, Σ22PCBs and 20PCNs) was found in the decreasing order: zooxanthellae > coral tissue > skeleton > reef sediment > seawater. The bioaccumulation of these compounds was 2-times higher in ahermatypic than in hermatypic corals, among which significant variations were observed in both sites. In Kharg, Porites lutea had the highest mean concentration of Σ30n-alkanes and Σ40PAHs in soft tissue, whereas the lowest values were in Platygyra daedalea. A contrasting trend was documented for Σ22PCBs and 20PCNs, with the highest level reported in soft tissue of P. daedalea and the lowest in P. lutea at Kharg. Compositional pattern of AHs and PAHs demonstrated the predominance of LMW-PAHs and n-alkanes. In skeleton and reef sediments, tetra, penta and tri-CBs were the most abundant PCBs congeners followed by di-CB > hexa-CB > hepta-CB > octa-CB,whiletri-CB > di-CB > tetra-CB > penta-CB > hexa-CB > hepta-CB > octa-CB was observed for soft tissue, zooxanthellae and seawater. The results of RAD test indicated significantly negative correlation between total concentration of these compounds with zooxanthellae density, the chlorophyll-a and C2 in corals at both reefs. This is the first report on levels, health assessment and source apportionments of POPs in zooxanthellae and a first step in the implementation of specific coral reef management measures