Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model

This paper presents a two period overlapping generations model with endogenous growth in the presence of a public sector with objectives of convergence for public debt and primary balance to GDP ratios. In order to ensure the existence of converging paths towards the target values of fiscal variables, we introduce a simple fiscal policy rule. According to this rule, the primary balance ratio is adjusted in function of the distance between the current and the target levels of the public debt and the primary surplus to GDP ratios. It is shown that the fiscal rule displaying time invariant parameters may produce non linear dynamic processes of adjustment of the fiscal ratios as well as endogenous fluctuations in the rate of growth of the economy. In addition the transitional process towards fiscal targets critically depends on the adjustment tool chosen by the fiscal authorities to implement the rule. JEL Classification: H63, H62, O41endogenous growth, Fiscal Policy, sustainability of public finances

Inflation shocks and interest rate rules

Recent empirical evidence by Fair (2002, 2005) and Giordani (2003) shows that a positive inflation shock with the nominal interest rate held constant has contractionary effects. These results cannot be reconciled with the standard ‘New Synthesis' literature. This paper reconsiders the effects of inflation shocks in a simple New Keynesian framework extended to include wealth effects. It is shown that, following an inflation shock, the decline of output coupled with passive interest rate rules is not puzzling.Inflation Shocks

Productivity growth and volatility: How important are wage and price rigidities?

We study the implications of having different sources of nominal rigidities on the relationship between productivity growth and shocks volatility in a model with procyclical R&D and imperfect competition in goods and labour markets. We show that the effects of uncertainty on long-term growth not only depends on the source of fluctuations, as recent literature shows, but also, and crucially, on whether prices and/or wages are rigid.productivity, growth, volatility

Improved dynamical particle swarm optimization method for structural dynamics

A methodology to the multiobjective structural design of buildings based on an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is presented, which has proved to be very efficient and robust in nonlinear problems and when the optimization objectives are in conflict. In particular, the behaviour of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) classical algorithm is improved by dynamically adding autoadaptive mechanisms that enhance the exploration/exploitation trade-off and diversity of the proposed algorithm, avoiding getting trapped in local minima. A novel integrated optimization system was developed, called DI-PSO, to solve this problem which is able to control and even improve the structural behaviour under seismic excitations. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the methodology is tested against some benchmark problems. Then a 3-story-building model is optimized under different objective cases, concluding that the improved multiobjective optimization methodology using DI-PSO is more efficient as compared with those designs obtained using single optimization.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

National Oligopolies and Economic Geography

We replace monopolistic competition with national oligopolies in a model of "new economic geography". There are many possible bifurcation diagrams but, unlike in monopolistic competition, the symmetric equilibrium is always stable for low trade costs. The antitrust policy, though identical in both countries, affects the geographical distribution of firms. In turn, migration attenuates the effectiveness of the antitrust policy in eliminating collusive behavior. For high trade costs a toughening of the antitrust policy is likely to result in more agglomeration and may reduce world welfare. The antitrust policy is more likely to be welfare improving when market integration progresses.Spatial Oligopoly, Antitrust Policy, Welfare

Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, capital accumulation and finite lifetimes. The framework exhibits intergenerational wealth effects and is intended to investigate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, which is specified by either a debt-based tax rule or a balanced-budget rule allowing for temporary deficits. When calibrated to euro area quarterly data, the model predicts that fiscal expansions generate a tradeoff in output dynamics between short-term gains and medium-term losses. It is also shown that the effects of fiscal shocks crucially depend upon the conduct of monetary policy. Simulation analysis suggests that balanced-budget requirements enhance the determinacy properties of feedback interest rate rules by guaranteeing inflation stabilization. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63Capital Accumulation, Finite Lifetime, Fiscal Policy, monetary policy, nominal rigidities, Simulations

Volatility, Growth and Labour Elasticity

We study the relationship between growth and variability in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and growth driven by learning-by-doing. We show that this relationship may be positive or negative depending on the impulse source of fluctuations A key role is also played by the Frisch elasticity of labour supply and by institutional features of the labour market. Our general findings are that monetary shocks volatility will generally have a negative effect on growth, while the opposite tends to be true for fiscal and productivity shocks. These findings are somehow consistent with the existing empirical evidence: data show, in fact, a somewhat ambiguous relationship between output growth and real variability, but a generally negative relationship between output growth and nominal variability.Growth; Volatility; Monetary and Real Shocks; Labour Supply Elasticity; Second-Order Approximation Methods

Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, capital accumulation and finite horizons. Our New Keynesian framework exhibits intergenerational wealth effects and is intended to investigate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, which is specified by either a debt-based tax rule or a balanced-budget rule allowing for temporary deficits. When calibrated to euro area quarterly data, the model predicts that fiscal expansions generate a trade-off in output dynamics between short-term gains and medium-term losses. It is shown that the effects of fiscal shocks crucially depend upon the conduct of monetary policy. Simulation analysis suggests that balanced-budget requirements enhance the determinacy properties of feedback interest rate rules by guaranteeing inflation stabilization.Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Nominal Rigidities; Capital Accumulation; Finite Lifetime; Simulations