Exploratory modeling: Extracting causality from complexity

On 22 May 2011 a massive tornado tore through Joplin, Mo., killing 158 people. With winds blowing faster than 200 miles per hour, the tornado was the most deadly in the United States since modern record keeping began in the 1950s. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Distributions of nuclear fuel-reprocessing tracers in the Arctic Ocean: Indications of Russian river influence

Radionuclide sampling in 1986 and 1993 in the Canada Basin, and in 1993 in the Amundsen Basin and on the adjacent Laptev shelf, provides new insights into the origin, timing, pathways, and mechanisms for dispersal of non-fallout radioactive tracers in the Arctic Ocean. First, samples from the Beaufort Sea shelf, slope, and adjacent basin show a four-fold increase in 129I concentrations from 1986 to 1993. Second, anthropogenic non-fallout radionuclide concentrations in the Beaufort Sea increase with proximity to slope boundary currents. Third, there is evidence for riverine contributions of anthropogenic radionuclides to surface waters of the Amundsen Basin and the Laptev continental shelf. This evidence includes high surface water burdens of 237Np and 129I, with the maximum in anthropogenic 129I found in the least saline and most 18O-depleted waters, consistent with an origin in high-latitude runoff. Additionally, the 237Np/129I atom ratios in the Laptev Sea and Amundsen Basin in 1993 were significantly lower than observed elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean and can be reasonably explained by 129I added during transit of the Russian shelves. The 240Pu/239Pu ratios in the water column were mostly near 0.18, consistent both with stratospheric bomb fallout and with the discharged-weighted mean Sellafield ratio during 1966-1985. In the least saline water samples collected at the most shallow Laptev shelf station, however, the Pu ratios were lower, consistent with a non-European nuclear fuel reprocessing source. There are clear secondary maxima in 237Np and 129I near 1000 m in the Amundsen Basin, likely associated with the Barents Sea branch of Atlantic water. Finally, the 129I/salinity and 129I/δ18O relationships in the Amundsen and Canada Basins at middepths are indistinguishable, suggesting effective horizontal dispersion

Pathogenesis of lassa fever in cynomolgus macaques

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lassa virus (LASV) infection causes an acute and sometimes fatal hemorrhagic disease in humans and nonhuman primates; however, little is known about the development of Lassa fever. Here, we performed a pilot study to begin to understand the progression of LASV infection in nonhuman primates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Six cynomolgus monkeys were experimentally infected with LASV. Tissues from three animals were examined at an early- to mid-stage of disease and compared with tissues from three animals collected at terminal stages of disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Dendritic cells were identified as a prominent target of LASV infection in a variety of tissues in all animals at day 7 while Kupffer cells, hepatocytes, adrenal cortical cells, and endothelial cells were more frequently infected with LASV in tissues of terminal animals (days 13.5-17). Meningoencephalitis and neuronal necrosis were noteworthy findings in terminal animals. Evidence of coagulopathy was noted; however, the degree of fibrin deposition in tissues was less prominent than has been reported in other viral hemorrhagic fevers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The sequence of pathogenic events identified in this study begins to shed light on the development of disease processes during Lassa fever and also may provide new targets for rational prophylactic and chemotherapeutic interventions.</p

Hubble Space Telescope imaging of a peculiar stellar complex in NGC 6946

The stellar populations in a stellar complex in NGC 6946 are analyzed on images taken with the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 on board the Hubble Space Telescope. The complex is peculiar by its very high density of stars and clusters and semicircular shape. Its physical dimensions are about the same as for the local Gould Belt, but the stellar density is 1 - 2 orders of magnitude higher. In addition to an extremely luminous, 15 Myr old cluster discussed in an earlier paper, accounting for about 17% of the integrated V-band light, we identify 18 stellar clusters within the complex with luminosities similar to the brightest open clusters in the Milky Way. The color-magnitude diagram of individual stars in the complex shows a paucity of red supergiants compared to model predictions in the 10-20 Myr age range for a uniform star formation rate. We thus find tentative evidence for a gap in the dispersed star formation history, with a concentration of star formation into a young globular cluster during this gap. Confirmation of this result must, however, await a better understanding of the late evolution of stars in the corresponding mass range (> 12 Msun). A reddening map based on individual reddenings for 373 early-type stars is presented, showing significant variations in the absorption across the complex. These may be responsible for some of the arc-like structures previously identified on ground-based images. We finally discuss various formation scenarios for the complex and the star clusters within it.Comment: 51 pages, including 19 figures and 4 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

Development of a New Vaccine for the Prevention of Lassa Fever

BACKGROUND: Recent importation of Lassa fever into Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States by travelers on commercial airlines from Africa underscores the public health challenge of emerging viruses. Currently, there are no licensed vaccines for Lassa fever, and no experimental vaccine has completely protected nonhuman primates against a lethal challenge. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a replication-competent vaccine against Lassa virus based on attenuated recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vectors expressing the Lassa viral glycoprotein. A single intramuscular vaccination of the Lassa vaccine elicited a protective immune response in nonhuman primates against a lethal Lassa virus challenge. Vaccine shedding was not detected in the monkeys, and none of the animals developed fever or other symptoms of illness associated with vaccination. The Lassa vaccine induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses in the four vaccinated and challenged monkeys. Despite a transient Lassa viremia in vaccinated animals 7 d after challenge, the vaccinated animals showed no evidence of clinical disease. In contrast, the two control animals developed severe symptoms including rashes, facial edema, and elevated liver enzymes, and ultimately succumbed to the Lassa infection. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the Lassa vaccine candidate based on recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus is safe and highly efficacious in a relevant animal model that faithfully reproduces human disease

Cold gas accretion in galaxies

Evidence for the accretion of cold gas in galaxies has been rapidly accumulating in the past years. HI observations of galaxies and their environment have brought to light new facts and phenomena which are evidence of ongoing or recent accretion: 1) A large number of galaxies are accompanied by gas-rich dwarfs or are surrounded by HI cloud complexes, tails and filaments. It may be regarded as direct evidence of cold gas accretion in the local universe. It is probably the same kind of phenomenon of material infall as the stellar streams observed in the halos of our galaxy and M31. 2) Considerable amounts of extra-planar HI have been found in nearby spiral galaxies. While a large fraction of this gas is produced by galactic fountains, it is likely that a part of it is of extragalactic origin. 3) Spirals are known to have extended and warped outer layers of HI. It is not clear how these have formed, and how and for how long the warps can be sustained. Gas infall has been proposed as the origin. 4) The majority of galactic disks are lopsided in their morphology as well as in their kinematics. Also here recent accretion has been advocated as a possible cause. In our view, accretion takes place both through the arrival and merging of gas-rich satellites and through gas infall from the intergalactic medium (IGM). The infall may have observable effects on the disk such as bursts of star formation and lopsidedness. We infer a mean ``visible'' accretion rate of cold gas in galaxies of at least 0.2 Msol/yr. In order to reach the accretion rates needed to sustain the observed star formation (~1 Msol/yr), additional infall of large amounts of gas from the IGM seems to be required.Comment: To appear in Astronomy & Astrophysics Reviews. 34 pages. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astron.nl/~oosterlo/accretionRevie

Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) mitogenomics: A cautionary tale of defining sub-species from mitochondrial sequence monophyly

The advent of massive parallel sequencing technologies has resulted in an increase of studies based upon complete mitochondrial genome DNA sequences that revisit the taxonomic status within and among species. Spatially distinct monophyly in such mitogenomic genealogies, i.e., the sharing of a recent common ancestor among con-specific samples collected in the same region has been viewed as evidence for subspecies. Several recent studies in cetaceans have employed this criterion to suggest subsequent intraspecific taxonomic revisions. We reason that employing intra-specific, spatially distinct monophyly at non-recombining, clonally inherited genomes is an unsatisfactory criterion for defining subspecies based upon theoretical (genetic drift) and practical (sampling effort) arguments. This point was illustrated by a re-analysis of a global mitogenomic assessment of fin whales, Balaenoptera physalus spp., published by Archer et al. (2013), which proposed to further subdivide the Northern Hemisphere fin whale subspecies, B. p. physalus. The proposed revision was based upon the detection of spatially distinct monophyly among North Atlantic and North Pacific fin whales in a genealogy based upon complete mitochondrial genome DNA sequences. The extended analysis conducted in this study (1676 mitochondrial control region, 162 complete mitochondrial genome DNA sequences and 20 microsatellite loci genotyped in 380 samples) revealed that the apparent monophyly among North Atlantic fin whales reported by Archer et al. (2013) to be due to low sample sizes. In conclusion, defining sub-species from monophyly (i.e., the absence of para- or polyphyly) can lead to erroneous conclusions due to relatively 'trivial' aspects, such as sampling. Basic population genetic processes (i.e., genetic drift and migration) also affect the time to the most recent common ancestor and hence the probability that individuals in a sample are monophyletic

Emotional Dynamics in the Development of Early Adolescent Psychopathology: A One-Year Longitudinal Study

This study examined the role of the level and variability of happiness, anger, anxiety, and sadness in the development of adolescent-reported anxiety disorder symptoms, depressive symptoms, and aggressive behavior in 452 adolescents (250 male) followed from age 13 to 14. Level and between-day variability of emotions were assessed through adolescent report at 3-month intervals across a 1 year period. Level and variability of the four emotions contributed to changes in anxiety disorder and depressive symptoms more consistently than to changes in aggressive behavior. All four emotions were predictive of changes in internalizing problems, while anger played the most prominent role in the development of aggressive behavior. Variability of emotions contributed to changes in anxiety disorder symptoms, while heightened levels of negative emotions and diminished happiness contributed to changes in depression. Results suggested somewhat stronger effects of negative affect on aggressive behavior for females than for males. Results underscore the role of emotion dysregulation in the development of psychopathology

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London