Desertification of high latitude ecosystems: conceptual models, time-series analyses and experiments

Ecosystem degradation in Iceland has been severe since man arrived 1100 years ago. Birch woodlands cover has declined from 25% of the land area, to only 1%. The deforestation is considered to be the initial stage in the land degradation process, followed by surface destabilization, and later erosion. The objective of this study was to quantify and evaluate factors that contribute to the early stages of land degradation in Icelandic ecosystems. Specific objectives were to improve our understanding of how livestock grazing might initiate early degradation stages, elucidate field-based landscape metrics useful for characterizing degradation stages, and to determine if landscape metrics obtained from remote sensing data can be used to detect landscape structure changes and identify degraded and at risk rangelands in real time over extensive and remote areas. A State-and-Transition conceptual model was constructed for the experimental area to identify potential key processes in the degradation sequence, and to formalize research questions. Experimental plots were established in five plant community types representing a space-for-time degradation sequence. Birch seedling (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) growth and survival was reduced with repeated clipping treatment applied to simulate browsing, but the amount of decline varied with plant community type. This suggests that continuous grazing may contribute to deforestation, as regeneration will be reduced over time. Intense grazing treatments, simulating both grazing and trampling, increased surface instability and soil loss compared to grazing only or control, suggesting that intense grazing may contribute to surface destabilization and therefore to land degradation. Erosion appeared to be active in the most intense treatments, also within the woodlands. The data indicate that the woodlands may have lower resilience than the other plant communities as treatment effects appeared quicker there. The woodlands may thus be particularly vulnerable to intense grazing. The landscape metrics used to quantify changes in landscape surface properties over a 51 year period yielded inconclusive results, either because of data limitations or because of non-detectable erosion activity. The results do generally support the proposed S&T model for the experimental area. It is concluded that grazing may contribute to woodland decline, and intensify degradation processes

Assessing impacts of soil management measures on ecosystem services

Only a few studies have quantified and measured ecosystem services (ES) specifically related to soil. To address this gap, we have developed and applied a methodology to assess changes in ecosystem services, based on measured or estimated soil property changes that were stimulated by soil management measures (e.g., mulching, terracing, no-till). We applied the ES assessment methodology in 16 case study sites across Europe representing a high diversity of soil threats and land use systems. Various prevention and remediation measures were trialled, and the changes in manageable soil and other natural capital properties were measured and quantified. An Excel tool facilitated data collection, calculation of changes in ecosystem services, and visualization of measured short-term changes and estimated long-term changes at plot level and for the wider area. With this methodology, we were able to successfully collect and compare data on the impact of land management on 15 different ecosystem services from 26 different measures. Overall, the results are positive in terms of the impacts of the trialled measures on ecosystem services, with 18 out of 26 measures having no decrease in any service at the plot level. Although methodological challenges remain, the ES assessment was shown to be a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of the trialled measures, and also served as an input to a stakeholder valuation of ecosystem services at local and sub-national level

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million personyears of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eG FR values 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2), compared with those with eG FR between 60 and 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2). Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2). Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin Alc, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Screening for diabetic retinopathy

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldA screening program for diabetic eye disease was established in Iceland in 1980. Diabetics involved in the screening program have a low prevalence of blindness, 1% in type 1 and 1.6% in type 2. We examined ways to make the screening program more efficient by identifying subgroups at low risk of developing eye disease that require treatment and therefore need less frequent screening. We studied whether diabetic eye disease screening programs may be trimmed by excluding children and examining diabetics without retinopathy biannually. Our results indicate that diabetic children under the age of 12 years do not need regular screening for eye disease. Biannual examinations seem to suffice in type 1 and 2 diabetic patients without retinopathy. However, in a setting where the eye clinic is located apart from the diabetes clinics, biannual examinations present practical problems which could result in a less effective screening for diabetic eye disease

Icelandic Birch polyploids - the case of a perfect fit in genome size

Two birch species coexist in Iceland, dwarf birch Betula nana and tree birch B. pubescens. Both species are variablemorphologically, which has been shown to be due to introgressive hybridization via interspecific hybrids. The aim of this study was to examine if the introgression could be related to genome size. We characterized 42 plants from Bifröst woodland morphologically and cytogenetically. The population consisted of diploid B. nana (38%), tetraploid B. pubescens (55%), and triploid hybrids (7%). Genome size wasmeasured from 12 plants, using Feulgen DNA image densitometry (FDM) on spring leaf buds and flow cytometry (FCM) with dormant winter twigs. The use of winter twigs for FCM is novel. The average 1C-values for diploid, triploid, and tetraploid plants were 448, 666, and 882 Mbp, respectively. Monoploid genome sizes were found to be statistically constant among ploidy levels. This stability is in contrast to the different taxonomic positions of the di- and tetraploids and also contrasts with the frequent occurrence of genome downsizing in polyploids

Stomping in silence: Conceptualizing trampling effects on soils in polar tundra

Ungulate trampling modifies soils and interlinked ecosystem functions across biomes. Until today, most research has focused on temperate ecosystems and mineral soils while trampling effects on cold and organic matter‐rich tundra soils remain largely unknown. We aimed to develop a general model of trampling effects on soil structure, biota, microclimate and biogeochemical processes, with a particular focus on polar tundra soils. To reach this goal, we reviewed literature about the effects of trampling and physical disturbances on soils across biomes and used this to discuss the knowns and unknowns of trampling effects on tundra soils. We identified the following four pathways through which trampling affects soils: (a) soil compaction; (b) reductions in soil fauna and fungi; (c) rapid losses in vegetation biomass and cover; and (d) longer term shifts in vegetation community composition. We found that, in polar tundra, soil responses to trampling pathways 1 and 3 could be characterized by nonlinear dynamics and tundra‐specific context dependencies that we formulated into testable hypotheses. In conclusion, trampling may affect tundra soil significantly but many direct, interacting and cascading responses remain unknown. We call for research to advance the understanding of trampling effects on soils to support informed efforts to manage and predict the functioning of tundra systems under global changes.</li

Increasing understanding of alien species through citizen science (Alien-CSI)

International audienceThere is no sign of saturation in accumulation of alien species (AS) introductions worldwide, additionally the rate of spread for some species has also been shown to be increasing. However, the challenges of gathering information on AS are recognized. Recent developments in citizen science (CS) provide an opportunity to improve data flow and knowledge on AS while ensuring effective and high quality societal engagement with the issue of IAS (Invasive Alien Species). Advances in technology, particularly on-line recording and smartphone apps, along with the development of social media, have revolutionized CS and increased connectivity while new and innovative analysis techniques are emerging to ensure appropriate management, visualization, interpretation and use and sharing of the data. In early July 2018 we launched a European CO-operation in Science and Technology (COST) Action to address multidisciplinary research questions in relation to developing and implementing CS, advancing scientific understanding of AS dynamics while informing decision-making specifically implementation of technical requirements of relevant legislation such as the EU Regulation 1143/2014 on IAS. It will also support the EU biodiversity goals and embedding science within society. The Action will explore and document approaches to establishing a European-wide CS AS network. It will embrace relevant innovations for data gathering and reporting to support the implementation of monitoring and surveillance measures, while ensuring benefits for society and citizens, through an AS CS European network. The Action will, therefore, increase levels of participation and quality of engagement with current CS initiatives, ensuring and evaluating educational value, and improve the value outcomes for potential users including citizens, scientists, alien species managers, policy-makers, local authorities, industry and other stakeholders

Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain. METHODS: We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1085949 people in 121 prospective studies. RESULTS: For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators. CONCLUSION: Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases