Fallstudie Swiss Re : «Case Management in P&C Reinsurance – Wissensarbeit im Fokus»

Die vorliegende Fallstudie von Swiss Re zeigt die komplexen Anforderungen, die Systeme zur Unterstützung von wissens- und dokumentenzentrierten Prozessen in einem kollaborativen Umfeld zu erfüllen haben. Dabei geht es in erster Linie darum, das optimale Mass an Standardisierung und Flexibilisierung zu finden, um Wissensarbeiter von Routinearbeiten zu entlasten und in ihren Entscheidungen zu unterstützen. Auf der herausfordernden Reise zur Lösung näherte sich Swiss Re schrittweise und mit einem klaren Richtungswechsel den Bedürfnissen ihrer Wissensarbeitenden

Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: A global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector. On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public-private partnerships are identified. © The Author(s) 2009

A probabilistic paradigm for the parametric insurance of natural hazards.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses). A more defensible approach is to issue probabilistic predictions of loss occurrence, which then allows uncertainty to be properly quantified, communicated, and evaluated. This study proposes a generic probabilistic framework for parametric trigger modeling based on logistic regression, and idealized modeling of potential damage given knowledge of a hazard variable. We also propose various novel methods for evaluating the quality and utility of such predictions as well as more traditional trigger indices. The methodology is demonstrated by application to flood-related disasters in Jamaica from 1998 to 2016 using gridded precipitation data as the hazard variable. A hydrologically motivated transformation is proposed for calculating potential damage from daily rainfall data. Despite the simplicity of the approach, the model has substantial skill at predicting the probability of occurrence of loss days as demonstrated by traditional goodness-of-fit measures (i.e., pseudo-R2 of 0.55) as well as probabilistic verification diagnostics such as receiver operating characteristics. Using conceptual models of decisionmaker expenses, we also demonstrate that the system can provide considerable utility to involved parties, e.g., insured parties, insurers, and risk managers.Benjamin Youngman’s research was supportedby the Willis Research Network

Synthetic biology in society: learning from past experience?

Drawing an analogy to past debates over biotechnology, some stakeholders fear that synthetic biology (SB) could raise public concerns. Accordingly, ‘lessons from the past’ should be applied to avoid controversies. However, biotechnology in the 1990s is not the only possible comparator. The potential to become contested has been attributed to a number of other novel technologies. Looking at nanotechnology for example, controversies have not materialised to the extent predicted. The article discusses factors relevant for controversies over technologies as well as differences to the situation when modern biotechnology began to proliferate. Certain properties attributed to SB in the discussion so far indeed suggest a potential for controversies of its own, but perceptions may follow those on other aspects of biotechnology subject to local contingencies. Finally, it is questioned whether ELSI research should see its task in applying lessons from the past to ease technology introduction. Today, rather than seeing themselves being embedded in a linear model of technology development, social scientists take an interest in developments ‘upstream’ where technologies take shape

Mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in aten years period

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>to evaluate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rates and related factors in HIV-infected pregnant women from a tertiary hospital between 2000 and 2009.</p> <p>Subjects and method</p> <p>cohort of 452 HIV-infected pregnant women and their newborns. Data was collected from recorded files and undiagnosed children were enrolled for investigation. Statistical analysis: qui-square test, Fisher exact test, Student <it>t </it>test, Mann-Whitney test, ANOVA, risk ratio and confidence intervals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MTCT occurred in 3.74%. The study population displayed a mean age of 27 years; 86.5% were found to have acquired HIV through sexual contact; 55% were aware of the diagnosis prior to the pregnancy; 62% were not using HAART. Mean CD4 cell-count was 474 cells/ml and 70.3% had undetectable viral loads in the third trimester. HAART included nevirapine in 35% of cases and protease inhibitors in 55%; Zidovudine monotherapy was used in 7.3%. Mean gestational age at delivery was 37.2 weeks and in 92% by caesarian section; 97.2% received intravenous zidovudine. Use of AZT to newborn occurred in 100% of them. Factors identified as associated to MTCT were: low CD4 cell counts, elevated viral loads, maternal AIDS, shorter periods receiving HAART, other conditions (anemia, IUGR (intra uterine growth restriction), oligohydramnium), coinfecctions (CMV and toxoplasmosis) and the occurrence of labor. Use of HAART for longer periods, caesarian and oral zidovudine for the newborns were associated with a decreased risk. Poor adhesion to treatment was present in 13 of the 15 cases of transmission; in 7, coinfecctions were diagnosed (CMV and toxoplasmosis).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Use of HAART and caesarian delivery are protective factors for mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Maternal coinfecctions and other conditions were risk factors for MTCT.</p