Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades

Outreach initiatives operated by universities for increasing interest in science and technology

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in European Journal of Engineering Edutaion on 2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/03043797.2015.1121468Since the 1990s, the low number of students choosing to study science and technology in higher education has been on the societal agenda and many initiatives have been launched to promote awareness regarding career options. The initiatives particularly focus on increasing enrolment in the engineering programmes. This article describes and compares eight European initiatives that have been established and operated by universities (and in some cases through collaboration with other actors in society). Each initiative is summarised in a short essay that discusses motivation, organisation, pedagogical approach, and activities. The initiatives are characterised by comparing the driving forces behind their creation, how the initiative activities relate to the activities at the university, size based on the number of participants and cost per participant and pedagogical framework. There seem to be two main tracks for building outreach activities, one where outreach activities are based on the university’s normal activities, and one where outreach activities are designed specifically for the visiting students.Gumaelius, L.; Almqvistb, M.; Arnadottir, A.; Axelsson, A.; Conejero, JA.; García Sabater, JP.; Klitgaard, L.... (2016). Outreach initiatives operated by universities for increasing interest in science and technology. European Journal of Engineering Education. 41(6):589-622. https://doi.org/10.1080/03043797.2015.1121468S58962241

The mode and tempo of hepatitis C virus evolution within and among hosts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a rapidly-evolving RNA virus that establishes chronic infections in humans. Despite the virus' public health importance and a wealth of sequence data, basic aspects of HCV molecular evolution remain poorly understood. Here we investigate three sets of whole HCV genomes in order to directly compare the evolution of whole HCV genomes at different biological levels: within- and among-hosts. We use a powerful Bayesian inference framework that incorporates both among-lineage rate heterogeneity and phylogenetic uncertainty into estimates of evolutionary parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most of the HCV genome evolves at ~0.001 substitutions/site/year, a rate typical of RNA viruses. The antigenically-important <it>E1/E2 </it>genome region evolves particularly quickly, with correspondingly high rates of positive selection, as inferred using two related measures. Crucially, in this region an exceptionally higher rate was observed for within-host evolution compared to among-host evolution. Conversely, higher rates of evolution were seen among-hosts for functionally relevant parts of the <it>NS5A </it>gene. There was also evidence for slightly higher evolutionary rate for HCV subtype 1a compared to subtype 1b.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using new statistical methods and comparable whole genome datasets we have quantified, for the first time, the variation in HCV evolutionary dynamics at different scales of organisation. This confirms that differences in molecular evolution between biological scales are not restricted to HIV and may represent a common feature of chronic RNA viral infection. We conclude that the elevated rate observed in the <it>E1/E2 </it>region during within-host evolution more likely results from the reversion of host-specific adaptations (resulting in slower long-term among-host evolution) than from the preferential transmission of slowly-evolving lineages.</p

The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models : A longitudinal insight

Acknowledgements 2019nCoV-302 Study Group Members: The NVX-CoV2373-2019nCoV-302 clinical trial was a collective group effort across multiple institutions and locations. Below is a list of sites and staff that significantly contributed to the implementation and conduct of the NVX-CoV2373-2019nCoV-302 clinical trial.Peer reviewe

Safety and efficacy of the NVX-CoV2373 coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine at completion of the placebo-controlled phase of a randomized controlled trial

Background: The recombinant protein-based vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, demonstrated 89.7% efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial in the United Kingdom. The protocol was amended to include a blinded crossover. Data to the end of the placebo-controlled phase are reported. Methods: Adults aged 18–84 years received 2 doses of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo (1:1) and were monitored for virologically confirmed mild, moderate, or severe COVID-19 (onset from 7 days after second vaccination). Participants who developed immunoglobulin G (IgG) against nucleocapsid protein but did not show symptomatic COVID-19 were considered asymptomatic. Secondary outcomes included anti-spike (S) IgG responses, wild-type virus neutralization, and T-cell responses. Results: Of 15 185 participants, 13 989 remained in the per-protocol efficacy population (6989 NVX-CoV2373, 7000 placebo). At a maximum of 7.5 months (median, 4.5) postvaccination, there were 24 cases of COVID-19 among NVX-CoV2373 recipients and 134 cases among placebo recipients, a vaccine efficacy of 82.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 73.3%–88.8%). Vaccine efficacy was 100% (95% CI, 17.9%–100.0%) against severe disease and 76.3% (95% CI, 57.4%–86.8%) against asymptomatic disease. High anti-S and neutralization responses to vaccination were evident, together with S-protein–specific induction of interferon-γ secretion in peripheral blood T cells. Incidence of serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest were similar between groups. Conclusions: A 2-dose regimen of NVX-CoV2373 conferred a high level of ongoing protection against asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe COVID-19 through >6 months postvaccination. A gradual decrease of protection suggests that a booster may be indicated. Clinical Trials Registration: EudraCT, 2020-004123-16

Safety and Efficacy of the NVX-CoV2373 Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine at Completion of the Placebo-Controlled Phase of a Randomized Controlled Trial

Acknowledgements The study and article were funded by Novavax. We would like to thank all the study participants for their commitment to this study. We also acknowledge the investigators and their study teams for their hard work and dedication. In addition, we would like to thank the National Institute for Health Research, representatives from the Department of Health and Social Care laboratories and NHS Digital and the members of the UK Vaccine Task Force. Editorial support was provided by Kelly Cameron of Ashfield MedComms, an Inizio company Funding This work was funded by Novavax, and the sponsor had primary responsibility for study design, study vaccines, protocol development, study monitoring, data management, and statistical analyses. All authors reviewed and approved the manuscript before submission. LF reports a position as a prior full-time employee, now contractor to Novavax re-imbursed hourly for work performed on this study and in analyses and drafting this report. IC reports providing medical writing support for this work as an employee of NovavaxPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Within-Host Dynamics of the Hepatitis C Virus Quasispecies Population in HIV-1/HCV Coinfected Patients

HIV/HCV coinfected individuals under highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) represent an interesting model for the investigation of the role played by the immune system in driving the evolution of the HCV quasispecies. We prospectively studied the intra-host evolution of the HCV heterogeneity in 8 coinfected subjects, selected from a cohort of 32 patients initiating HAART: 5 immunological responders (group A) and 3 immunological non-responders (group B), and in two HCV singly infected controls not assuming drugs (group C). For all these subjects at least two serial samples obtained at the first observation (before HAART) and more than 1 year later, underwent clonal sequence analysis of partial E1/E2 sequences, encompassing the whole HVR1. Evolutionary rates, dated phylogenies and population dynamics were co-estimated by using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, and site specific selection pressures were estimated by maximum likelihood-based methods. The intra-host evolutionary rates of HCV quasispecies was 10 times higher in subjects treated with HAART than in controls without immunodeficiency (1.9 and 2.3×10−3 sub/site/month in group A and B and 0.29×10−3 sub/site/month in group C individuals). The within-host Bayesian Skyline plot analysis showed an exponential growth of the quasispecies populations in immunological responders, coinciding with a peak in CD4 cell counts. On the contrary, quasispecies population remained constant in group B and in group C controls. A significant positive selection pressure was detected in a half of the patients under HAART and in none of the group C controls. Several sites under significant positive selection were described, mainly included in the HVR1. Our data indicate that different forces, in addition to the selection pressure, drive an exceptionally fast evolution of HCV during HAART immune restoration. We hypothesize that an important role is played by the enlargement of the viral replicative space

Sequential Bottlenecks Drive Viral Evolution in Early Acute Hepatitis C Virus Infection

Hepatitis C is a pandemic human RNA virus, which commonly causes chronic infection and liver disease. The characterization of viral populations that successfully initiate infection, and also those that drive progression to chronicity is instrumental for understanding pathogenesis and vaccine design. A comprehensive and longitudinal analysis of the viral population was conducted in four subjects followed from very early acute infection to resolution of disease outcome. By means of next generation sequencing (NGS) and standard cloning/Sanger sequencing, genetic diversity and viral variants were quantified over the course of the infection at frequencies as low as 0.1%. Phylogenetic analysis of reassembled viral variants revealed acute infection was dominated by two sequential bottleneck events, irrespective of subsequent chronicity or clearance. The first bottleneck was associated with transmission, with one to two viral variants successfully establishing infection. The second occurred approximately 100 days post-infection, and was characterized by a decline in viral diversity. In the two subjects who developed chronic infection, this second bottleneck was followed by the emergence of a new viral population, which evolved from the founder variants via a selective sweep with fixation in a small number of mutated sites. The diversity at sites with non-synonymous mutation was higher in predicted cytotoxic T cell epitopes, suggesting immune-driven evolution. These results provide the first detailed analysis of early within-host evolution of HCV, indicating strong selective forces limit viral evolution in the acute phase of infection

Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. To assess the impact of this flexibility on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results, the same dataset was independently analyzed by 70 teams, testing nine ex-ante hypotheses. The flexibility of analytic approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyze the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in hypothesis test results, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of their analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Importantly, meta-analytic approaches that aggregated information across teams yielded significant consensus in activated regions across teams. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset. Our findings show that analytic flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and demonstrate factors related to variability in fMRI. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed

Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. To assess the impact of this flexibility on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results, the same dataset was independently analyzed by 70 teams, testing nine ex-ante hypotheses. The flexibility of analytic approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyze the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in hypothesis test results, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of their analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Importantly, meta-analytic approaches that aggregated information across teams yielded significant consensus in activated regions across teams. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset. Our findings show that analytic flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and demonstrate factors related to variability in fMRI. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed