A Synthesis of Global Urbanization Projections

This chapter reviews recent literature on global projections of future urbanization, covering the population, economic and physical extent perspectives. We report on several recent findings based on studies and reports on global patterns of urbanization. Specifically, we review new literature that makes projections about the spatial pattern, rate, and magnitude of urbanization change in the next 30–50 years. While projections should be viewed and utilized with caution, the chapter synthesis reports on several major findings that will have significant socioeconomic and environmental impacts including the following: By 2030, world urban population is expected to increase from the current 3.4 billion to almost 5 billion; Urban areas dominate the global economy – urban economies currently generate more than 90 % of global Gross Value Added; From 2000 to 2030, the percent increase in global urban land cover will be over 200 % whereas the global urban population will only grow by a little over 70 %. Our synthesis of recent projections suggest that between 50%–60% of the total urban land in existence in 2030 will be built in the first three decades of the 21st century. Challenges and limitations of urban dynamic projections are discussed, as well as possible innovative applications and potential pathways towards sustainable urban futures

Enhanced hyporheic exchange flow around woody debris does not increase nitrate reduction in a sandy streambed

Anthropogenic nitrogen pollution is a critical problem in freshwaters. Although riverbeds are known to attenuate nitrate, it is not known if large woody debris (LWD) can increase this ecosystem service through enhanced hyporheic exchange and streambed residence time. Over a year, we monitored the surface water and pore water chemistry at 200 points along a ~50m reach of a lowland sandy stream with three natural LWD structures. We directly injected 15N-nitrate at 108 locations within the top 1.5m of the streambed to quantify in situ denitrification, anammox and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonia, which, on average, contributed 85%, 10% and 5% of total nitrate reduction, respectively. Total nitrate reducing activity ranged from 0-16µM h-1 and was highest in the top 30cm of the stream bed. Depth, ambient nitrate and water residence time explained 44% of the observed variation in nitrate reduction; fastest rates were associated with slow flow and shallow depths. In autumn, when the river was in spate, nitrate reduction (in situ and laboratory measures) was enhanced around the LWD compared with non-woody areas, but this was not seen in the spring and summer. Overall, there was no significant effect of LWD on nitrate reduction rates in surrounding streambed sediments, but higher pore water nitrate concentrations and shorter residence times, close to LWD, indicated enhanced delivery of surface water into the streambed under high flow. When hyporheic exchange is too strong, overall nitrate reduction is inhibited due to short flow-paths and associated high oxygen concentrations

Nitrate Reduction Functional Genes and Nitrate Reduction Potentials Persist in Deeper Estuarine Sediments. Why?

Denitrification and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) are processes occurring simultaneously under oxygen-limited or anaerobic conditions, where both compete for nitrate and organic carbon. Despite their ecological importance, there has been little investigation of how denitrification and DNRA potentials and related functional genes vary vertically with sediment depth. Nitrate reduction potentials measured in sediment depth profiles along the Colne estuary were in the upper range of nitrate reduction rates reported from other sediments and showed the existence of strong decreasing trends both with increasing depth and along the estuary. Denitrification potential decreased along the estuary, decreasing more rapidly with depth towards the estuary mouth. In contrast, DNRA potential increased along the estuary. Significant decreases in copy numbers of 16S rRNA and nitrate reducing genes were observed along the estuary and from surface to deeper sediments. Both metabolic potentials and functional genes persisted at sediment depths where porewater nitrate was absent. Transport of nitrate by bioturbation, based on macrofauna distributions, could only account for the upper 10 cm depth of sediment. A several fold higher combined freeze-lysable KCl-extractable nitrate pool compared to porewater nitrate was detected. We hypothesised that his could be attributed to intracellular nitrate pools from nitrate accumulating microorganisms like Thioploca or Beggiatoa. However, pyrosequencing analysis did not detect any such organisms, leaving other bacteria, microbenthic algae, or foraminiferans which have also been shown to accumulate nitrate, as possible candidates. The importance and bioavailability of a KCl-extractable nitrate sediment pool remains to be tested. The significant variation in the vertical pattern and abundance of the various nitrate reducing genes phylotypes reasonably suggests differences in their activity throughout the sediment column. This raises interesting questions as to what the alternative metabolic roles for the various nitrate reductases could be, analogous to the alternative metabolic roles found for nitrite reductases

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean

A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr-1 since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (~0.4 Pg C yr-1) or sequestered in sediments (~0.5 Pg C yr-1) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of ~0.1 Pg C yr-1 to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store ~0.9 Pg C yr-1 at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr-1 previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land–ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.Peer reviewe

The regional and global significance of nitrogen removal in lakes and reservoirs

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Biogeochemistry 93 (2009): 143-157, doi:10.1007/s10533-008-9272-x.Human activities have greatly increased the transport of biologically available N through watersheds to potentially sensitive coastal ecosystems. Lentic water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) have the potential to act as important sinks for this reactive N as it is transported across the landscape because they offer ideal conditions for N burial in sediments or permanent loss via denitrification. However, the patterns and controls on lentic N removal have not been explored in great detail at large regional to global scales. In this paper we describe, evaluate, and apply a new, spatially explicit, annual-scale, global model of lentic N removal called NiRReLa (Nitrogen Retention in Reservoirs and Lakes). The NiRReLa model incorporates small lakes and reservoirs than have been included in previous global analyses, and also allows for separate treatment and analysis of reservoirs and natural lakes. Model runs for the mid-1990s indicate that lentic systems are indeed important sinks for N and are conservatively estimated to remove 19.7 Tg N yr-1 from watersheds globally. Small lakes (< 50 km2) were critical in the analysis, retaining almost half (9.3 Tg N yr-1) of the global total. In model runs, capacity of lakes and reservoirs to remove watershed N varied substantially (0-100%) both as a function of climate and the density of lentic systems. Although reservoirs occupy just 6% of the global lentic surface area, we estimate they retain approximately 33% of the total N removed by lentic systems, due to a combination of higher drainage ratios (catchment surface area : lake or reservoir surface area), higher apparent settling velocities for N, and greater N loading rates in reservoirs than in lakes. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of NiRReLa suggests that, on-average, N removal within lentic systems will respond more strongly to changes in land use and N loading than to changes in climate at the global scale.The NSF26 Research Coordination Network on denitrification for support for collaboration (award number DEB0443439 to S.P. Seitzinger and E.A. Davidson). This project was also supported by grants to J.A. Harrison from California Sea Grant (award number RSF8) and from the U.S. Geological Survey 104b program and R. Maranger (FQRNT Strategic Professor)

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm. Here we overview the existing prime components of atmospheric and oceanic observing systems, with the acquisition of ocean–atmosphere observables either from in situ or from satellites, the rich hierarchy of models to test our knowledge of Earth System functioning, and the tremendous efforts accomplished over the last decade within the COST Action 735 and SOLAS Integration project frameworks to understand, as best we can, the current physical and biogeochemical state of the atmosphere and ocean commons. A few SOLAS integrative studies illustrate the full meaning of interactions, paving the way for even tighter connections between thematic fields. Ultimately, SOLAS research will also develop with an enhanced consideration of societal demand while preserving fundamental research coherency. The exchange of energy, gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by a variety of biological, chemical and physical processes that operate across broad spatial and temporal scales. These processes influence the composition, biogeochemical and chemical properties of both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers and ultimately shape the Earth system response to climate and environmental change, as detailed in the previous four chapters. In this cross-cutting chapter we present some of the SOLAS achievements over the last decade in terms of integration, upscaling observational information from process-oriented studies and expeditionary research with key tools such as remote sensing and modelling. Here we do not pretend to encompass the entire legacy of SOLAS efforts but rather offer a selective view of some of the major integrative SOLAS studies that combined available pieces of the immense jigsaw puzzle. These include, for instance, COST efforts to build up global climatologies of SOLAS relevant parameters such as dimethyl sulphide, interconnection between volcanic ash and ecosystem response in the eastern subarctic North Pacific, optimal strategy to derive basin-scale CO2 uptake with good precision, or significant reduction of the uncertainties in sea-salt aerosol source functions. Predicting the future trajectory of Earth’s climate and habitability is the main task ahead. Some possible routes for the SOLAS scientific community to reach this overarching goal conclude the chapter

Sustainable Urban Systems: Co-design and Framing for Transformation

Rapid urbanisation generates risks and opportunities for sustainable development. Urban policy and decision makers are challenged by the complexity of cities as social–ecological–technical systems. Consequently there is an increasing need for collaborative knowledge development that supports a whole-of-system view, and transformational change at multiple scales. Such holistic urban approaches are rare in practice. A co-design process involving researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, has progressed such an approach in the Australian context, aiming to also contribute to international knowledge development and sharing. This process has generated three outputs: (1) a shared framework to support more systematic knowledge development and use, (2) identification of barriers that create a gap between stated urban goals and actual practice, and (3) identification of strategic focal areas to address this gap. Developing integrated strategies at broader urban scales is seen as the most pressing need. The knowledge framework adopts a systems perspective that incorporates the many urban trade-offs and synergies revealed by a systems view. Broader implications are drawn for policy and decision makers, for researchers and for a shared forward agenda

Processes and patterns of oceanic nutrient limitation

Microbial activity is a fundamental component of oceanic nutrient cycles. Photosynthetic microbes, collectively termed phytoplankton, are responsible for the vast majority of primary production in marine waters. The availability of nutrients in the upper ocean frequently limits the activity and abundance of these organisms. Experimental data have revealed two broad regimes of phytoplankton nutrient limitation in the modern upper ocean. Nitrogen availability tends to limit productivity throughout much of the surface low-latitude ocean, where the supply of nutrients from the subsurface is relatively slow. In contrast, iron often limits productivity where subsurface nutrient supply is enhanced, including within the main oceanic upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific. Phosphorus, vitamins and micronutrients other than iron may also (co-)limit marine phytoplankton. The spatial patterns and importance of co-limitation, however, remain unclear. Variability in the stoichiometries of nutrient supply and biological demand are key determinants of oceanic nutrient limitation. Deciphering the mechanisms that underpin this variability, and the consequences for marine microbes, will be a challenge. But such knowledge will be crucial for accurately predicting the consequences of ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to oceanic nutrient biogeochemistry. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved