Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yIn decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to performa PPP and stakeholders' involvement in a decisionmaking process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.Llopis Albert, C.; Palacios Marqués, D.; Merigó -Lindahl, JM. (2016). Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(19):1-11. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yS1117519Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:W01420. doi: 10.1029/2007WR005862Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. 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Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC and McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW- 2000, The US geological survey modular groundwater model-user guide to modularization concepts and the groundwater flow process. US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep 00–92, 12Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of Gaussian related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Jagelke J, Barthel R (2005) Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model. Adv Geosci 5:105–111Llopis-Albert C (2008) Stochastic inverse modeling conditional to flow, mass transport and secondary information. Universitat Politècnica de València, València. ISBN 978-84-691-9796-7Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–55. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Application to the macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.016Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic simulation of non-gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000214Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.028Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2014) Discussion about the validity of sharp-interface models to deal with seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 28(10):3642–3654Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2015) Using MODFLOW code to approach transient hydraulic head with a sharp-interface solution. Hydrol Process 29(8):2052–2064. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10354Llopis-Albert C, Palacios-Marqués D, Merigó JM (2014) A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 511:10–16. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.021Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Palacios-Marqués D (2015) Structure adaptation in stochastic inverse methods for integrating information. Water Resour Manage 29(1):95–107. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0829-2Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Xu Y (2016) A coupled stochastic inverse/sharp interface seawater intrusion approach for coastal aquifers under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 540:774–783. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.065McDonald MG and Harbaugh AW (1988) A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. 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EuReCa ONE—27 Nations, ONE Europe, ONE Registry A prospective one month analysis of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes in 27 countries in Europe

AbstractIntroductionThe aim of the EuReCa ONE study was to determine the incidence, process, and outcome for out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) throughout Europe.MethodsThis was an international, prospective, multi-centre one-month study. Patients who suffered an OHCA during October 2014 who were attended and/or treated by an Emergency Medical Service (EMS) were eligible for inclusion in the study. Data were extracted from national, regional or local registries.ResultsData on 10,682 confirmed OHCAs from 248 regions in 27 countries, covering an estimated population of 174 million. In 7146 (66%) cases, CPR was started by a bystander or by the EMS. The incidence of CPR attempts ranged from 19.0 to 104.0 per 100,000 population per year. 1735 had ROSC on arrival at hospital (25.2%), Overall, 662/6414 (10.3%) in all cases with CPR attempted survived for at least 30 days or to hospital discharge.ConclusionThe results of EuReCa ONE highlight that OHCA is still a major public health problem accounting for a substantial number of deaths in Europe.EuReCa ONE very clearly demonstrates marked differences in the processes for data collection and reported outcomes following OHCA all over Europe. Using these data and analyses, different countries, regions, systems, and concepts can benchmark themselves and may learn from each other to further improve survival following one of our major health care events

Continence technologies whitepaper: Informing new engineering science research

Advances in healthcare technology for continence have historically been limited compared to other areas of medicine, reflecting the complexities of the condition and social stigma which act as a barrier to participation. This whitepaper has been developed to inspire and direct the engineering science community towards research opportunities that exist for continence technologies that address unmet needs in diagnosis, treatment and long-term management. Our aim is to pinpoint key challenges and highlight related research opportunities for novel technological advances. To do so, we draw on experience and expertise from academics, clinicians, patients and patient groups linked to continence healthcare. This is presented in four areas of consideration: the clinical pathway, patient perspective, research challenges and effective innovation. In each we introduce seminal research, background information and demonstrative case-studies, before discussing their relevance to engineering science researchers who are interested in approaching this overlooked but vital area of healthcare

Transmembrane Signaling of Chemotaxis Receptor Tar: Insights from Molecular Dynamics Simulation Studies

Transmembrane signaling of chemotaxis receptors has long been studied, but how the conformational change induced by ligand binding is transmitted across the bilayer membrane is still elusive at the molecular level. To tackle this problem, we carried out a total of 600-ns comparative molecular dynamics simulations (including model-building simulations) of the chemotaxis aspartate receptor Tar (a part of the periplasmic domain/transmembrane domain/HAMP domain) in explicit lipid bilayers. These simulations reveal valuable insights into the mechanistic picture of Tar transmembrane signaling. The piston-like movement of a transmembrane helix induced by ligand binding on the periplasmic side is transformed into a combination of both longitudinal and transversal movements of the helix on the cytoplasmic side as a result of different protein-lipid interactions in the ligand-off and ligand-on states of the receptor. This conformational change alters the dynamics and conformation of the HAMP domain, which is presumably a mechanism to deliver the signal from the transmembrane domain to the cytoplasmic domain. The current results are consistent with the previously suggested dynamic bundle model in which the HAMP dynamics change is a key to the signaling. The simulations provide further insights into the conformational changes relevant to the HAMP dynamics changes in atomic detail

tagO is involved in the synthesis of all anionic cell-wall polymers in Bacillus subtilis 168.

Sequence homologies suggest that the Bacillus subtilis 168 tagO gene encodes UDP-N-acetylglucosamine:undecaprenyl-P N-acetylglucosaminyl 1-P transferase, the enzyme responsible for catalysing the first step in the synthesis of the teichoic acid linkage unit, i.e. the formation of undecaprenyl-PP-N-acetylglucosamine. Inhibition of tagO expression mediated by an IPTG-inducible P(spac) promoter led to the development of a coccoid cell morphology, a feature characteristic of mutants blocked in teichoic acid synthesis. Indeed, analyses of the cell-wall phosphate content, as well as the incorporation of radioactively labelled precursors, revealed that the synthesis of poly(glycerol phosphate) and poly(glucosyl N-acetylgalactosamine 1-phosphate), the two strain 168 teichoic acids known to share the same linkage unit, was affected. Surprisingly, under phosphate limitation, deficiency of TagO precludes the synthesis of teichuronic acid, which is normally induced under these conditions. The regulatory region of tagO, containing two partly overlapping sigma(A)-controlled promoters, is similar to that of sigA, the gene encoding the major sigma factor responsible for growth. Here, the authors discuss the possibility that TagO may represent a pivotal element in the multi-enzyme complexes responsible for the synthesis of anionic cell-wall polymers, and that it may play one of the key roles in balanced cell growth

Characteristic trajectories of ecosystem services in mountains In a nutshell

International audienceIntensification of land use and management over recent decades has resulted in trade-offs between food or timber production and other ecosystem services (ES). Despite an increase in scholarly publications on ES, the temporal aspects of ES trade-offs have largely been neglected to date. Here we explore how past and future land-use trajectories (pathways of change) influence ES over time, using mountain landscapes as a model. Based on a synthesis of 51 cases of temporal changes in ES within mountain landscapes, we analyze how changes in land-use intensity influence the supply of ten key services and we describe six typical examples (archetypes) of ES change. Our analysis reveals that land-use intensity is an important factor shaping these archetypes. Land-use intensification often degrades ES (eg recreation and water regulation), with the exception of services targeted by intensification (food or timber) and with differences between forest and agricultural intensification. Service degradation following intensification is not always reversed by reductions in land-use intensity (termed “extensification”)