Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD

Background Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk strati fi cation to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. Methods The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identi fi ed by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV 1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. Conclusions DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0 – 1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3 – 6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. Trial registration number UKCRN ID 14214

The development of metaphorical language comprehension in typical development and in Williams syndrome

The domain of figurative language comprehension was used to probe the developmental relation between language and cognition in typically developing individuals and individuals with Williams syndrome. Extending the work of Vosniadou and Ortony, the emergence of nonliteral similarity and category knowledge was investigated in 117 typically developing children between 4 and 12 years of age, 19 typically developing adults, 15 children with Williams syndrome between 5 and 12 years of age, and 8 adults with Williams syndrome. Participants were required to complete similarity and categorization statements by selecting one of two words (e.g., either “The sun is like ___” or “The sun is the same kind of thing as ___”) with word pairs formed from items that were literally, perceptually, or functionally similar to the target word or else anomalous (e.g., moon, orange, oven, or chair, respectively). Results indicated that individuals with Williams syndrome may access different, less abstract knowledge in figurative language comparisons despite the relatively strong verbal abilities found in this disorder

Virus shapes and buckling transitions in spherical shells

We show that the icosahedral packings of protein capsomeres proposed by Caspar and Klug for spherical viruses become unstable to faceting for sufficiently large virus size, in analogy with the buckling instability of disclinations in two-dimensional crystals. Our model, based on the nonlinear physics of thin elastic shells, produces excellent one parameter fits in real space to the full three-dimensional shape of large spherical viruses. The faceted shape depends only on the dimensionless Foppl-von Karman number \gamma=YR^2/\kappa, where Y is the two-dimensional Young's modulus of the protein shell, \kappa is its bending rigidity and R is the mean virus radius. The shape can be parameterized more quantitatively in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion. We also investigate elastic shell theory for extremely large \gamma, 10^3 < \gamma < 10^8, and find results applicable to icosahedral shapes of large vesicles studied with freeze fracture and electron microscopy.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figure

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescale

A Spatially Resolved Study of Cold Dust, Molecular Gas, H ii Regions, and Stars in the z = 2.12 Submillimeter Galaxy ALESS67.1

We present detailed studies of a z = 2.12 submillimeter galaxy, ALESS67.1, using sub-arcsecond resolution ALMA, adaptive optics-aided VLT/SINFONI, and Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/CANDELS data to investigate the kinematics and spatial distributions of dust emission (870 μm continuum), 12CO(J = 3–2), strong optical emission lines, and visible stars. Dynamical modeling of the optical emission lines suggests that ALESS67.1 is not a pure rotating disk but a merger, consistent with the apparent tidal features revealed in the HST imaging. Our sub-arcsecond resolution data set allows us to measure half-light radii for all the tracers, and we find a factor of 4–6 smaller sizes in dust continuum compared to all the other tracers, including 12CO; also, ultraviolet (UV) and Hα emission are significantly offset from the dust continuum. The spatial mismatch between the UV continuum and the cold dust and gas reservoir supports the explanation that geometrical effects are responsible for the offset of the dusty galaxy on the IRX–β diagram. Using a dynamical method we derive an ${\alpha }_{\mathrm{CO}}=1.8\pm 1.0$, consistent with other submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) that also have resolved CO and dust measurements. Assuming a single ${\alpha }_{\mathrm{CO}}$ value we also derive resolved gas and star formation rate surface densities, and find that the core region of the galaxy ($\lesssim 5$ kpc) follows the trend of mergers on the Schmidt–Kennicutt relationship, whereas the outskirts ($\gtrsim 5$ kpc) lie on the locus of normal star-forming galaxies, suggesting different star formation efficiencies within one galaxy. Our results caution against using single size or morphology for different tracers of the star formation activity and gas content of galaxies, and therefore argue the need to use spatially resolved, multi-wavelength observations to interpret the properties of SMGs, and perhaps even for $z\gt 1$ galaxies in general

Measurement of the Bs0→J/ψKS0B_s^0\to J/\psi K_S^0 branching fraction

The $B_s^0\to J/\psi K_S^0$ branching fraction is measured in a data sample corresponding to 0.41$fb^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected with the LHCb detector at the LHC. This channel is sensitive to the penguin contributions affecting the sin2$\beta$ measurement from $B^0\to J/\psi K_S^0$ The time-integrated branching fraction is measured to be $BF(B_s^0\to J/\psi K_S^0)=(1.83\pm0.28)\times10^{-5}$. This is the most precise measurement to date

Absolute luminosity measurements with the LHCb detector at the LHC

Absolute luminosity measurements are of general interest for colliding-beam experiments at storage rings. These measurements are necessary to determine the absolute cross-sections of reaction processes and are valuable to quantify the performance of the accelerator. Using data taken in 2010, LHCb has applied two methods to determine the absolute scale of its luminosity measurements for proton-proton collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. In addition to the classic "van der Meer scan" method a novel technique has been developed which makes use of direct imaging of the individual beams using beam-gas and beam-beam interactions. This beam imaging method is made possible by the high resolution of the LHCb vertex detector and the close proximity of the detector to the beams, and allows beam parameters such as positions, angles and widths to be determined. The results of the two methods have comparable precision and are in good agreement. Combining the two methods, an overall precision of 3.5% in the absolute luminosity determination is reached. The techniques used to transport the absolute luminosity calibration to the full 2010 data-taking period are presented.Comment: 48 pages, 19 figures. Results unchanged, improved clarity of Table 6, 9 and 10 and corresponding explanation in the tex

Measurement of the ratio of branching fractions BR(B0 -> K*0 gamma)/BR(Bs0 -> phi gamma) and the direct CP asymmetry in B0 -> K*0 gamma

The ratio of branching fractions of the radiative B decays B0 -> K*0 gamma and Bs0 phi gamma has been measured using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb-1 of pp collision data collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s)=7 TeV. The value obtained is BR(B0 -> K*0 gamma)/BR(Bs0 -> phi gamma) = 1.23 +/- 0.06(stat.) +/- 0.04(syst.) +/- 0.10(fs/fd), where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second is the experimental systematic uncertainty and the third is associated with the ratio of fragmentation fractions fs/fd. Using the world average value for BR(B0 -> K*0 gamma), the branching fraction BR(Bs0 -> phi gamma) is measured to be (3.5 +/- 0.4) x 10^{-5}. The direct CP asymmetry in B0 -> K*0 gamma decays has also been measured with the same data and found to be A(CP)(B0 -> K*0 gamma) = (0.8 +/- 1.7(stat.) +/- 0.9(syst.))%. Both measurements are the most precise to date and are in agreement with the previous experimental results and theoretical expectations.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figues, 4 table

Absolute luminosity measurements with the LHCb detector at the LHC

Absolute luminosity measurements are of general interest for colliding-beam experiments at storage rings. These measurements are necessary to determine the absolute cross-sections of reaction processes and are valuable to quantify the performance of the accelerator. Using data taken in 2010, LHCb has applied two methods to determine the absolute scale of its luminosity measurements for proton-proton collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. In addition to the classic "van der Meer scan" method a novel technique has been developed which makes use of direct imaging of the individual beams using beam-gas and beam-beam interactions. This beam imaging method is made possible by the high resolution of the LHCb vertex detector and the close proximity of the detector to the beams, and allows beam parameters such as positions, angles and widths to be determined. The results of the two methods have comparable precision and are in good agreement. Combining the two methods, an overall precision of 3.5% in the absolute luminosity determination is reached. The techniques used to transport the absolute luminosity calibration to the full 2010 data-taking period are presented.Comment: 48 pages, 19 figures. Results unchanged, improved clarity of Table 6, 9 and 10 and corresponding explanation in the tex

Absolute luminosity measurements with the LHCb detector at the LHC

Absolute luminosity measurements are of general interest for colliding-beam experiments at storage rings. These measurements are necessary to determine the absolute cross-sections of reaction processes and are valuable to quantify the performance of the accelerator. Using data taken in 2010, LHCb has applied two methods to determine the absolute scale of its luminosity measurements for proton-proton collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. In addition to the classic "van der Meer scan" method a novel technique has been developed which makes use of direct imaging of the individual beams using beam-gas and beam-beam interactions. This beam imaging method is made possible by the high resolution of the LHCb vertex detector and the close proximity of the detector to the beams, and allows beam parameters such as positions, angles and widths to be determined. The results of the two methods have comparable precision and are in good agreement. Combining the two methods, an overall precision of 3.5% in the absolute luminosity determination is reached. The techniques used to transport the absolute luminosity calibration to the full 2010 data-taking period are presented.Comment: 48 pages, 19 figures. Results unchanged, improved clarity of Table 6, 9 and 10 and corresponding explanation in the tex