Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite data: a synthetic inter-comparison of measurement techniques and their performance as a function of space and time

Currently two polar orbiting satellite instruments measure CO₂ concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere, while other missions are planned for the coming years. In the future such instruments might become powerful tools for monitoring changes in the atmospheric CO₂ abundance and to improve our quantitative understanding of the leading processes controlling this. At the moment, however, we are still in an exploratory phase where first experiences are collected and promising new space-based measurement concepts are investigated. This study assesses the potential of some of these concepts to improve CO₂ source and sink estimates obtained from inverse modelling. For this purpose the performance of existing and planned satellite instruments is quantified by synthetic simulations of their ability to reduce the uncertainty of the current source and sink estimates in comparison with the existing ground-based network of sampling sites. Our high resolution inversion of sources and sinks (at 8°x10°) allows us to investigate the variation of instrument performance in space and time and at various temporal and spatial scales. The results of our synthetic tests clearly indicate that the satellite performance increases with increasing sensitivity of the instrument to CO₂ near the Earth's surface, favoring the near infra-red technique. Thermal infrared instruments, on the contrary, reach a better global coverage, because the performance in the near infrared is reduced over the oceans owing to a low surface albedo. Near infra-red sounders can compensate for this by measuring in sun-glint, which will allow accurate measurements over the oceans, at the cost, however, of a lower measurement density. Overall, the sun-glint pointing near infrared instrument is the most promising concept of those tested. We show that the ability of satellite instruments to resolve fluxes at smaller temporal and spatial scales is also related to surface sensitivity. All the satellite instruments performed relatively well over the continents resulting mainly from the larger prior flux uncertainties over land than over the oceans. In addition, the surface networks are rather sparse over land increasing the additional benefit of satellite measurements there. Globally, challenging satellite instrument precisions are needed to compete with the current surface network (about 1ppm for weekly and 8°x10° averaged SCIAMACHY columns). Regionally, however, these requirements relax considerably, increasing to 5ppm for SCIAMACHY over tropical continents. This points not only to an interesting research area using SCIAMACHY data, but also to the fact that satellite requirements should not be quantified by only a single number. The applicability of our synthetic results to real satellite instruments is limited by rather crude representations of instrument and data retrieval related uncertainties. This should receive high priority in future work

Validation and analysis of MOPITT CO observations of the Amazon Basin

We analyze satellite retrievals of carbon monoxide from the MOPITT (Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere) instrument over the Amazon Basin, focusing on the MOPITT Version 6 "multispectral" retrieval product (exploiting both thermal-infrared and near-infrared channels). Validation results based on in situ vertical profiles measured between 2010 and 2013 are presented for four sites in the Amazon Basin. Results indicate a significant negative bias in retrieved lower-tropospheric CO concentrations. The possible influence of smoke aerosol as a source of retrieval bias is investigated using collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements at two sites but does not appear to be significant. Finally, we exploit the MOPITT record to analyze both the mean annual cycle and the interannual variability of CO over the Amazon Basin since 2002

Vertical profiles of CO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e above eastern Amazonia suggest a net carbon flux to the atmosphere and balanced biosphere between 2000 and 2009

From 2000 until January 2010 vertical profiles were collected above eastern Amazonia to help determine regional-scale (∼105–106 km2) fluxes of carbon cycle-related greenhouse gases. Samples were collected aboard light aircraft between the surface and 4.3 km and a column integration technique was used to determine the CO2 flux. Measured CO2 profiles were differenced from the CO2 background determined from measurements in the tropical Atlantic. The observed annual flux between the coast and measurement sites was 0.40 ± 0.27 gC m−2 d−1 (90% confidence interval using a bootstrap analysis). The wet season (January–June) mean flux was 0.44 ± 0.38 gC m−2 d−1 (positive fluxes defined as a source to the atmosphere) and the dry season mean flux was 0.35 ± 0.17 gC m−2 d−1 (July–December). The observed flux variability is high, principally in the wet season. The influence of biomass burning has been removed using co-measured CO, and revealed the presence of a significant dry season sink. The annual mean vegetation flux, after the biomass burning correction, was 0.02 ± 0.27 gC m−2 d−1, and a clear sink was observed between August and November of −0.70 ± 0.21 gC m−2 d−1 where for all of the dry season it was −0.24 ± 0.17 gC m−2 d−1

An agent-based approach to assess drivers’ interaction with pre-trip information systems.

This article reports on the practical use of a multi-agent microsimulation framework to address the issue of assessing drivers’ responses to pretrip information systems. The population of drivers is represented as a community of autonomous agents, and travel demand results from the decision-making deliberation performed by each individual of the population as regards route and departure time. A simple simulation scenario was devised, where pretrip information was made available to users on an individual basis so that its effects at the aggregate level could be observed. The simulation results show that the overall performance of the system is very likely affected by exogenous information, and these results are ascribed to demand formation and network topology. The expressiveness offered by cognitive approaches based on predicate logics, such as the one used in this research, appears to be a promising approximation to fostering more complex behavior modelling, allowing us to represent many of the mental aspects involved in the deliberation process

What drives interannual variation in tree ring oxygen isotopes in the Amazon?

Oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ18OTR) from northern Bolivia record local precipitation δ18O and correlate strongly with Amazon basin-wide rainfall. While this is encouraging evidence that δ18OTR can be used for palaeoclimate reconstructions, it remains unclear whether variation in δ18OTR is truly driven by within-basin processes, thus recording Amazon climate directly, or if the isotope signal may already be imprinted on incoming vapour, perhaps reflecting a pan-tropical climate signal. We use atmospheric back-trajectories combined with satellite observations of precipitation, together with water vapour transport analysis to show that δ18OTR in Bolivia are indeed controlled by basin-intrinsic processes, with rainout over the basin the most important factor. Furthermore, interannual variation in basin-wide precipitation and atmospheric circulation are both shown to affect δ18OTR. These findings suggest δ18OTR can be reliably used to reconstruct Amazon precipitation, and have implications for the interpretation of other palaeoproxy records from the Amazon basin

Tree height strongly affects estimates of water-use efficiency responses to climate and CO2 using isotopes

Various studies report substantial increases in intrinsic water-use efficiency (Wi), estimated using carbon isotopes in tree rings, suggesting trees are gaining increasingly more carbon per unit water lost due to increases in atmospheric CO2. Usually, reconstructions do not, however, correct for the effect of intrinsic developmental changes in Wi as trees grow larger. Here we show, by comparingWi across varying tree sizes at one CO2 level, that ignoring such developmental effects can severely affect inferences of trees' Wi. Wi doubled or even tripled over a trees' lifespan in three broadleaf species due to changes in tree height and light availability alone, and there are also weak trends for Pine trees. Developmental trends in broadleaf species are as large as the trends previously assigned to CO2 and climate. Credible future tree ring isotope studies require explicit accounting for species-specific developmental effects before CO2 and climate effects are inferred.Peer reviewe

Fix the Game, Not the Dame: Restoring Equity in Leadership Evaluations

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.Female leaders continue to face bias in the workplace compared to male leaders. When employees are evaluated differently because of who they are rather than how they perform, an ethical dilemma arises for leaders and organizations. Thus, bridging role congruity and social identity leadership theories, we propose that gender biases in leadership evaluations can be overcome by manipulating diversity at the team level. Across two multiple-source, multiple-wave, and randomized field experiments, we test whether team gender composition restores gender equity in leadership evaluations. In Study 1, we find that male leaders are rated as more prototypical in male-dominated groups, an advantage that is eliminated in gender-balanced groups. In Study 2, we replicate and extend this finding by showing that leader gender and team gender composition interact to predict trust in the leader via perceptions of leader prototypicality. The results show causal support for the social identity model of organizational leadership and a boundary condition of role congruity theory. Beyond moral arguments of fairness, our findings also show how, in the case of gender, team diversity can create a more level playing field for leaders. Finally, we outline the implications of our results for leaders, organizations, business ethics, and society

Inverse modeling of GOSAT-retrieved ratios of total column CH4 and CO2 for 2009 and 2010

This study investigates the constraint provided by greenhouse gas measurements from space on surface fluxes. Imperfect knowledge of the light path through the atmosphere, arising from scattering by clouds and aerosols, can create biases in column measurements retrieved from space. To minimize the impact of such biases, ratios of total column retrieved CH4 and CO2 (Xratio) have been used. We apply the ratio inversion method described in Pandey et al. (2015) to retrievals from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The ratio inversion method uses the measured Xratio as a weak constraint on CO2 fluxes. In contrast, the more common approach of inverting proxy CH4 retrievals (Frankenberg et al., 2005) prescribes atmospheric CO2 fields and optimizes only CH4 fluxes. The TM5–4DVAR (Tracer Transport Model version 5–variational data assimilation system) inverse modeling system is used to simultaneously optimize the fluxes of CH4 and CO2 for 2009 and 2010. The results are compared to proxy inversions using model-derived CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2model) from CarbonTracker and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis CO2 product. The performance of the inverse models is evaluated using measurements from three aircraft measurement projects. Xratio and XCO2model are compared with TCCON retrievals to quantify the relative importance of errors in these components of the proxy XCH4 retrieval (XCH4proxy). We find that the retrieval errors in Xratio (mean  =  0.61 %) are generally larger than the errors in XCO2model (mean  =  0.24 and 0.01 % for CarbonTracker and MACC, respectively). On the annual timescale, the CH4 fluxes from the different satellite inversions are generally in agreement with each other, suggesting that errors in XCO2model do not limit the overall accuracy of the CH4 flux estimates. On the seasonal timescale, however, larger differences are found due to uncertainties in XCO2model, particularly over Australia and in the tropics. The ratio method stays closer to the a priori CH4 flux in these regions, because it is capable of simultaneously adjusting the CO2 fluxes. Over tropical South America, comparison to independent measurements shows that CO2 fields derived from the ratio method are less realistic than those used in the proxy method. However, the CH4 fluxes are more realistic, because the impact of unaccounted systematic uncertainties is more evenly distributed between CO2 and CH4. The ratio inversion estimates an enhanced CO2 release from tropical South America during the dry season of 2010, which is in accordance with the findings of Gatti et al. (2014) and Van der Laan et al. (2015). The performance of the ratio method is encouraging, because despite the added nonlinearity due to the assimilation of Xratio and the significant increase in the degree of freedom by optimizing CO2 fluxes, still consistent results are obtained with respect to other CH4 inversions

Administration of defined microbiota is protective in a murine Salmonella infection model.

Salmonella typhimurium is a major cause of diarrhea and causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, and perturbations of the gut microbiota are known to increase susceptibility to enteric infections. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a Microbial Ecosystem Therapeutic (MET-1) consisting of 33 bacterial strains, isolated from human stool and previously used to cure patients with recurrent Clostridium difficile infection, could also protect against S. typhimurium disease. C57BL/6 mice were pretreated with streptomycin prior to receiving MET-1 or control, then gavaged with S. typhimurium. Weight loss, serum cytokine levels, and S. typhimurium splenic translocation were measured. NF-κB nuclear staining, neutrophil accumulation, and localization of tight junction proteins (claudin-1, ZO-1) were visualized by immunofluorescence. Infected mice receiving MET-1 lost less weight, had reduced serum cytokines, reduced NF-κB nuclear staining, and decreased neutrophil infiltration in the cecum. MET-1 also preserved cecum tight junction protein expression, and reduced S. typhimurium translocation to the spleen. Notably, MET-1 did not decrease CFUs of Salmonella in the intestine. MET-1 may attenuate systemic infection by preserving tight junctions, thereby inhibiting S. typhimurium from gaining access to the systemic circulation. We conclude that MET-1 may be protective against enteric infections besides C. difficile infection