38 research outputs found

    Feasibility of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from the Indian subcontinent: explorations with a set of deterministic age-structured transmission models

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    textabstractBackground: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2017. In the context of VL, the elimination target is defined as an annual VL incidence of <1 per 10,000 capita at (sub-)district level. Interventions focus on vector control, surveillance and on diagnosing and treating VL cases. Many endemic areas have not yet achieved optimal control due to logistical, biological as well as technical challenges. We used mathematical modelling to quantify VL transmission dynamics and predict the feasibility of achieving the VL elimination target with current control strategies under varying assumptions about the reservoir of infection in humans. Methods: We developed three deterministic age-structured transmission models with different main reservoirs of infection in humans: asymptomatic infections (model 1), reactivation of infection after initial infection (model 2), and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL; model 3). For each model, we defined four sub-variants based on different assumptions about the duration of immunity and age-patterns in exposure to sandflies. All 12 model sub-variants were fitted to data from the KalaNet study in Bihar (India) and Nepal, and the best sub-variant was selected per model. Predictions were made for optimal and sub-optimal indoor residual spraying (IRS) effectiveness for three different levels of VL endemicity. Results: Structurally different models explained the KalaNet data equally well. However, the predicted impact of IRS varied substantially between models, such that a conclusion about reaching the VL elimination targets for the ISC heavily depends on assumptions about the main reservoir of infection in humans: asymptomatic cases, recovered (immune) individuals that reactivate, or PKDL cases. Conclusions: Available data on the impact of IRS so far suggest one model is probably closest to reality (model 1). According to this model, elimination of VL (incidence of <1 per 10,000) by 2017 is only feasible in low and medium endemic settings with optimal IRS. In highly endemic settings and settings with sub-optimal IRS, additional interventions will be required

    Radial fast-neutron fluence gradients during rotating 40Ar/39Ar sample irradiation recorded with metallic fluence monitors and geological age standards

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    Characterizing the neutron-irradiation parameter J is one of the major uncertainties in 40Ar/39Ar dating. The associated uncertainty of the individual J-value for a sample of unknown age depends on the accuracy of the age of the geological standards, the fast-neutron fluence distribution in the reactor, and the distances between standards and samples during irradiation. While it is generally assumed that rotating irradiation evens out radial neutron fluence gradients, we observed axial and radial variations of the J-values in sample irradiations in the rotating channels of two reactors. To quantify them, we included three-dimensionally distributed metallic fast- (Ni) and thermal- (Co) neutron fluence monitors in three irradiations and geological age standards in three more. Two irradiations were carried out under Cd shielding in the FRG1 reactor in Geesthacht, Germany, and four without Cd shielding in the LVR-15 reactor in Rez, Czech Republic. The 58Ni(nf,p)58Co activation reaction and gamma-spectrometry of the 811 keV peak associated with the subsequent decay of 58Co to 58Fe allow one to calculate the fast-neutron fluence. The fast-neutron fluences at known positions in the irradiation container correlate with the J-values determined by mass spectrometric 40Ar/39Ar measurements of the geological age standards. Radial neutron fluence gradients are up to 1.8 %/cm in FRG1 and up to 2.2 %/cm in LVR-15; the corresponding axial gradients are up to 5.9 and 2.1 %/cm. We conclude that sample rotation might not always suffice to meet the needs of high precision dating and gradient monitoring can be crucial

    Alichur Dome, South Pamir, Western India-Asia Collisional Zone: Detailing the Neogene Shakhdara-Alichur Syn-collisional Gneiss-Dome Complex and Connection to Lithospheric Processes

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    Neogene, syn‐collisional extensional exhumation of Asian lower–middle crust produced the Shakhdara–Alichur gneiss‐dome complex in the South Pamir. The <1 km‐thick, mylonitic–brittle, top‐NNE, normal‐sense Alichur shear zone (ASZ) bounds the 125 × 25 km Alichur dome to the north. The Shakhdara dome is bounded by the <4 km‐thick, mylonitic–brittle, top‐SSE South Pamir normal‐sense shear zone (SPSZ) to the south, and the dextral Gunt wrench zone to its north. The Alichur dome comprises Cretaceous granitoids/gneisses cut by early Miocene leucogranites; its hanging wall contains non/weakly metamorphosed rocks. The 22–17 Ma Alichur‐dome‐injection‐complex leucogranites transition from foliation‐parallel, centimeter‐ to meter‐thick sheets within the ASZ into discordant intrusions that may comprise half the volume of the dome core. Secondary fluid inclusions in mylonites and mylonitization‐temperature constraints suggest Alichur‐dome exhumation from 10–15 km depth. Thermochronologic dates bracket footwall cooling between ~410–130 °C from ~16–4 Ma; tectonic cooling/exhumation rates (~42 °C/Myr, ~1.1 km/Myr) contrast with erosion‐dominated rates in the hanging wall (~2 °C/Myr, <0.1 km/Myr). Dome‐scale boudinage, oblique divergence of the ASZ and SPSZ hanging walls, and dextral wrenching reflect minor approximately E–W material flow out of the orogen. We attribute broadly southward younging extensional exhumation across the central South Pamir between ~20–4 Ma to: (i) Mostly northward, foreland‐directed flow of hot crust into a cold foreland during the growth of the Pamir orocline; and (ii) Contrasting effects of basal shear related to underthrusting Indian lithosphere, enhancing extension in the underthrust South Pamir and inhibiting extension in the non‐underthrust Central Pamir

    Design, construction, and characterization of a compact DD neutron generator designed for 40Ar/39Ar geochronology

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    A next-generation, high-flux DD neutron generator has been designed, commissioned, and characterized, and is now operational in a new facility at the University of California Berkeley. The generator, originally designed for 40Ar/39Ar dating of geological materials, has since served numerous additional applications, including medical isotope production studies, with others planned for the near future. In this work, we present an overview of the High Flux Neutron Generator (HFNG) which includes a variety of simulations, analytical models, and experimental validation of results. Extensive analysis was performed in order to characterize the neutron yield, flux, and energy distribution at specific locations where samples may be loaded for irradiation. A notable design feature of the HFNG is the possibility for sample irradiation internal to the cathode, just 8 mm away from the neutron production site, thus maximizing the neutron flux (n/cm2/s). The generator's maximum neutron flux at this irradiation position is 2.58e7 n/cm2/s +/- 5% (approximately 3e8 n/s total yield) as measured via activation of small natural indium foils. However, future development is aimed at achieving an order of magnitude increase in flux. Additionally, the deuterium ion beam optics were optimized by simulations for various extraction configurations in order to achieve a uniform neutron flux distribution and an acceptable heat load. Finally, experiments were performed in order to benchmark the modeling and characterization of the HFNG.Comment: 31 pages, 20 figure

    Taking the pulse of Earth's tropical forests using networks of highly distributed plots

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    Tropical forests are the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth. While better understanding of these forests is critical for our collective future, until quite recently efforts to measure and monitor them have been largely disconnected. Networking is essential to discover the answers to questions that transcend borders and the horizons of funding agencies. Here we show how a global community is responding to the challenges of tropical ecosystem research with diverse teams measuring forests tree-by-tree in thousands of long-term plots. We review the major scientific discoveries of this work and show how this process is changing tropical forest science. Our core approach involves linking long-term grassroots initiatives with standardized protocols and data management to generate robust scaled-up results. By connecting tropical researchers and elevating their status, our Social Research Network model recognises the key role of the data originator in scientific discovery. Conceived in 1999 with RAINFOR (South America), our permanent plot networks have been adapted to Africa (AfriTRON) and Southeast Asia (T-FORCES) and widely emulated worldwide. Now these multiple initiatives are integrated via ForestPlots.net cyber-infrastructure, linking colleagues from 54 countries across 24 plot networks. Collectively these are transforming understanding of tropical forests and their biospheric role. Together we have discovered how, where and why forest carbon and biodiversity are responding to climate change, and how they feedback on it. This long-term pan-tropical collaboration has revealed a large long-term carbon sink and its trends, as well as making clear which drivers are most important, which forest processes are affected, where they are changing, what the lags are, and the likely future responses of tropical forests as the climate continues to change. By leveraging a remarkably old technology, plot networks are sparking a very modern revolution in tropical forest science. In the future, humanity can benefit greatly by nurturing the grassroots communities now collectively capable of generating unique, long-term understanding of Earth's most precious forests. Resumen Los bosques tropicales son los ecosistemas más diversos y productivos del mundo y entender su funcionamiento es crítico para nuestro futuro colectivo. Sin embargo, hasta hace muy poco, los esfuerzos para medirlos y monitorearlos han estado muy desconectados. El trabajo en redes es esencial para descubrir las respuestas a preguntas que trascienden las fronteras y los plazos de las agencias de financiamiento. Aquí mostramos cómo una comunidad global está respondiendo a los desafíos de la investigación en ecosistemas tropicales a través de diversos equipos realizando mediciones árbol por árbol en miles de parcelas permanentes de largo plazo. Revisamos los descubrimientos más importantes de este trabajo y discutimos cómo este proceso está cambiando la ciencia relacionada a los bosques tropicales. El enfoque central de nuestro esfuerzo implica la conexión de iniciativas locales de largo plazo con protocolos estandarizados y manejo de datos para producir resultados que se puedan trasladar a múltiples escalas. Conectando investigadores tropicales, elevando su posición y estatus, nuestro modelo de Red Social de Investigación reconoce el rol fundamental que tienen, para el descubrimiento científico, quienes generan o producen los datos. Concebida en 1999 con RAINFOR (Suramérica), nuestras redes de parcelas permanentes han sido adaptadas en África (AfriTRON) y el sureste asiático (T-FORCES) y ampliamente replicadas en el mundo. Actualmente todas estas iniciativas están integradas a través de la ciber-infraestructura de ForestPlots.net, conectando colegas de 54 países en 24 redes diferentes de parcelas. Colectivamente, estas redes están transformando nuestro conocimiento sobre los bosques tropicales y el rol de éstos en la biósfera. Juntos hemos descubierto cómo, dónde y porqué el carbono y la biodiversidad de los bosques tropicales está respondiendo al cambio climático y cómo se retroalimentan. Esta colaboración pan-tropical de largo plazo ha expuesto un gran sumidero de carbono y sus tendencias, mostrando claramente cuáles son los factores más importantes, qué procesos se ven afectados, dónde ocurren los cambios, los tiempos de reacción y las probables respuestas futuras mientras el clima continúa cambiando. Apalancando lo que realmente es una tecnología antigua, las redes de parcelas están generando una verdadera y moderna revolución en la ciencia tropical. En el futuro, la humanidad puede beneficiarse enormemente si se nutren y cultivan comunidades de investigadores de base, actualmente con la capacidad de generar información única y de largo plazo para entender los que probablemente son los bosques más preciados de la tierra. Resumo Florestas tropicais são os ecossistemas mais diversos e produtivos da Terra. Embora uma boa compreensão destas florestas seja crucial para o nosso futuro coletivo, até muito recentemente os esforços de medições e monitoramento foram amplamente desconexos. É essencial formarmos redes para obtermos respostas que transcendem fronteiras e horizontes de agências financiadoras. Neste estudo nós mostramos como uma comunidade global está respondendo aos desafios da pesquisa de ecossistemas tropicais, com equipes diversas medindo florestas, árvore por árvore, em milhares de parcelas monitoradas à longo prazo. Nós revisamos as maiores descobertas científicas deste trabalho, e mostramos também como este processo está mudando a ciência de florestas tropicais. Nossa abordagem principal envolve unir iniciativas de base a protocolos padronizados e gerenciamento de dados a fim de gerar resultados robustos em escalas ampliadas. Ao conectar pesquisadores tropicais e elevar seus status, nosso modelo de Rede de Pesquisa Social reconhece o papel-chave do produtor dos dados na descoberta científica. Concebida em 1999 com o RAINFOR (América do Sul), nossa rede de parcelas permanentes foi adaptada para África (AfriTRON) e Sudeste asiático (T-FORCES), e tem sido extensamente reproduzida em todo o mundo. Agora estas múltiplas iniciativas estão integradas através de uma infraestrutura cibernética do ForestPlots.net, conectando colegas de 54 países de 24 redes de parcelas. Estas iniciativas estão transformando coletivamente o entendimento das florestas tropicais e seus papéis na biosfera. Juntos nós descobrimos como, onde e por que o carbono e a biodiversidade da floresta estão respondendo às mudanças climáticas, e seus efeitos de retroalimentação. Esta duradoura colaboração pantropical revelou um grande sumidouro de carbono persistente e suas tendências, assim como tem evidenciado quais direcionadores são mais importantes, quais processos florestais são mais afetados, onde eles estão mudando, seus atrasos no tempo de resposta, e as prováveis respostas das florestas tropicais conforme o clima continua a mudar. Dessa forma, aproveitando uma notável tecnologia antiga, redes de parcelas acendem faíscas de uma moderna revolução na ciência das florestas tropicais. No futuro a humanidade pode se beneficiar incentivando estas comunidades basais que agora são coletivamente capazes de gerar conhecimentos únicos e duradouros sobre as florestas mais preciosas da Terra. Résume Les forêts tropicales sont les écosystèmes les plus diversifiés et les plus productifs de la planète. Si une meilleure compréhension de ces forêts est essentielle pour notre avenir collectif, jusqu'à tout récemment, les efforts déployés pour les mesurer et les surveiller ont été largement déconnectés. La mise en réseau est essentielle pour découvrir les réponses à des questions qui dépassent les frontières et les horizons des organismes de financement. Nous montrons ici comment une communauté mondiale relève les défis de la recherche sur les écosystèmes tropicaux avec diverses équipes qui mesurent les forêts arbre après arbre dans de milliers de parcelles permanentes. Nous passons en revue les principales découvertes scientifiques de ces travaux et montrons comment ce processus modifie la science des forêts tropicales. Notre approche principale consiste à relier les initiatives de base à long terme à des protocoles standardisés et une gestion de données afin de générer des résultats solides à grande échelle. En reliant les chercheurs tropicaux et en élevant leur statut, notre modèle de réseau de recherche sociale reconnaît le rôle clé de l'auteur des données dans la découverte scientifique. Conçus en 1999 avec RAINFOR (Amérique du Sud), nos réseaux de parcelles permanentes ont été adaptés à l'Afrique (AfriTRON) et à l'Asie du Sud-Est (T-FORCES) et largement imités dans le monde entier. Ces multiples initiatives sont désormais intégrées via l'infrastructure ForestPlots.net, qui relie des collègues de 54 pays à travers 24 réseaux de parcelles. Ensemble, elles transforment la compréhension des forêts tropicales et de leur rôle biosphérique. Ensemble, nous avons découvert comment, où et pourquoi le carbone forestier et la biodiversité réagissent au changement climatique, et comment ils y réagissent. Cette collaboration pan-tropicale à long terme a révélé un important puits de carbone à long terme et ses tendances, tout en mettant en évidence les facteurs les plus importants, les processus forestiers qui sont affectés, les endroits où ils changent, les décalages et les réactions futures probables des forêts tropicales à mesure que le climat continue de changer. En tirant parti d'une technologie remarquablement ancienne, les réseaux de parcelles déclenchent une révolution très moderne dans la science des forêts tropicales. À l'avenir, l'humanité pourra grandement bénéficier du soutien des communautés de base qui sont maintenant collectivement capables de générer une compréhension unique et à long terme des forêts les plus précieuses de la Terre. Abstrak Hutan tropika adalah di antara ekosistem yang paling produktif dan mempunyai kepelbagaian biodiversiti yang tinggi di seluruh dunia. Walaupun pemahaman mengenai hutan tropika amat penting untuk masa depan kita, usaha-usaha untuk mengkaji dan mengawas hutah-hutan tersebut baru sekarang menjadi lebih diperhubungkan. Perangkaian adalah sangat penting untuk mencari jawapan kepada soalan-soalan yang menjangkaui sempadan dan batasan agensi pendanaan. Di sini kami menunjukkan bagaimana sebuah komuniti global bertindak balas terhadap cabaran penyelidikan ekosistem tropika melalui penglibatan pelbagai kumpulan yang mengukur hutan secara pokok demi pokok dalam beribu-ribu plot jangka panjang. Kami meninjau semula penemuan saintifik utama daripada kerja ini dan menunjukkan bagaimana proses ini sedang mengubah bidang sains hutan tropika. Teras pendekatan kami memberi tumpuan terhadap penghubungan inisiatif akar umbi jangka panjang dengan protokol standar serta pengurusan data untuk mendapatkan hasil skala besar yang kukuh. Dengan menghubungkan penyelidik-penyelidik tropika dan meningkatkan status mereka, model Rangkaian Penyelidikan Sosial kami mengiktiraf kepentingan peranan pengasas data dalam penemuan saintifik. Bermula dengan pengasasan RAINFOR (Amerika Selatan) pada tahun 1999, rangkaian-rangkaian plot kekal kami kemudian disesuaikan untuk Afrika (AfriTRON) dan Asia Tenggara (T-FORCES) dan selanjutnya telah banyak dicontohi di seluruh dunia. Kini, inisiatif-inisiatif tersebut disepadukan melalui infrastruktur siber ForestPlots.net yang menghubungkan rakan sekerja dari 54 negara di 24 buah rangkaian plot. Secara kolektif, rangkaian ini sedang mengubah pemahaman tentang hutan tropika dan peranannya dalam biosfera. Kami telah bekerjasama untuk menemukan bagaimana, di mana dan mengapa karbon serta biodiversiti hutan bertindak balas terhadap perubahan iklim dan juga bagaimana mereka saling bermaklum balas. Kolaborasi pan-tropika jangka panjang ini telah mendedahkan sebuah sinki karbon jangka panjang serta arah alirannya dan juga menjelaskan pemandu-pemandu perubahan yang terpenting, di mana dan bagaimana proses hutan terjejas, masa susul yang ada dan kemungkinan tindakbalas hutan tropika pada perubahan iklim secara berterusan di masa depan. Dengan memanfaatkan pendekatan lama, rangkaian plot sedang menyalakan revolusi yang amat moden dalam sains hutan tropika. Pada masa akan datang, manusia sejagat akan banyak mendapat manfaat jika memupuk komuniti-komuniti akar umbi yang kini berkemampuan secara kolektif menghasilkan pemahaman unik dan jangka panjang mengenai hutan-hutan yang paling berharga di dunia

    Metallic Fluence Monitors and J-value standards

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    Utilizing the neutron-irradiation parameter J is one of the major uncertainties in 40Ar/39Ar dating. The associated error of the individual J-value for a sample of unknown age depends on the accuracy of the age of the geological standards, the fast-neutron fluence distribution in the reactor and the distances between standards and samples during irradiation. While it is generally assumed that rotating irradiation evens out radial neutron fluence gradients, we observed axial and radial variations of the J-values in sample irradiations in the rotating channels of two reactors. To quantify them, we included three-dimensionally distributed metallic fast- (Ni) and thermal- (Co) neutron fluence monitors in three irradiations and geological age standards in three more. Two irradiations were carried out under Cd-shielding in the FRG1 reactor in Geesthacht, Germany, and four without Cd-shielding in the LVR-15 reactor in Řež, Czech Republic. The 58Ni(nf,p)58Co activation reaction and γ-spectrometry of the 811 keV peak associated with the subsequent decay of 58Co to 58Fe allow to calculate the fast-neutron fluence. The fast-neutron fluences at known positions in the irradiation container correlate with the J-values determined by mass-spectrometric 40Ar/39Ar measurements of the geological age standards. Ra-dial neutron fluence gradients are up to 1.8 %/cm in FRG1 and up to 2.2 %/cm in LVR-15; the corre-sponding axial gradients are up to 5.9 and 2.1 %/cm. We conclude that sample rotation might not al-ways suffice to meet the needs of high-precision dating and gradient monitoring can be crucial
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