Genetic diversity among pandemic 2009 influenza viruses isolated from a transmission chain

BACKGROUND: Influenza viruses such as swine-origin influenza A(H1N1) virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) generate genetic diversity due to the high error rate of their RNA polymerase, often resulting in mixed genotype populations (intra-host variants) within a single infection. This variation helps influenza to rapidly respond to selection pressures, such as those imposed by the immunological host response and antiviral therapy. We have applied deep sequencing to characterize influenza intra-host variation in a transmission chain consisting of three cases due to oseltamivir-sensitive viruses, and one derived oseltamivir-resistant case. METHODS: Following detection of the A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, we deep-sequenced the complete NA gene from two of the oseltamivir-sensitive virus-infected cases, and all eight gene segments of the viruses causing the remaining two cases. RESULTS: No evidence for the resistance-causing mutation (resulting in NA H275Y substitution) was observed in the oseltamivir-sensitive cases. Furthermore, deep sequencing revealed a subpopulation of oseltamivir-sensitive viruses in the case carrying resistant viruses. We detected higher levels of intra-host variation in the case carrying oseltamivir-resistant viruses than in those infected with oseltamivir-sensitive viruses. CONCLUSIONS: Oseltamivir-resistance was only detected after prophylaxis with oseltamivir, suggesting that the mutation was selected for as a result of antiviral intervention. The persisting oseltamivir-sensitive virus population in the case carrying resistant viruses suggests either that a small proportion survive the treatment, or that the oseltamivir-sensitive virus rapidly re-establishes itself in the virus population after the bottleneck. Moreover, the increased intra-host variation in the oseltamivir-resistant case is consistent with the hypothesis that the population diversity of a RNA virus can increase rapidly following a population bottleneck

1918 Influenza Pandemic and Highly Conserved Viruses with Two Receptor-Binding Variants

The “Spanish influenza pandemic swept the globe in the autumn and winter of 1918–19, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 40 million people. Clinically, epidemiologically, and pathologically, the disease was remarkably uniform, which suggests that similar viruses were causing disease around the world. To assess the homogeneity of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, partial hemagglutinin gene sequences have been determined for five cases, including two newly identified samples from London, United Kingdom. The strains show 98.9% to 99.8% nucleotide sequence identity. One of the few differences between the strains maps to the receptor-binding site of hemagglutinin, suggesting that two receptor-binding configurations were co-circulating during the pandemic. The results suggest that in the early stages of an influenza A pandemic, mutations that occur during replication do not become fixed so that a uniform “consensus” strain circulates for some time

Fatal Cases of Influenza A(H3N2) in Children: Insights from Whole Genome Sequence Analysis

During the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2003–2004 the emergence of a novel influenza antigenic variant, A/Fujian/411/2002-like(H3N2), was associated with an unusually high number of fatalities in children. Seventeen fatal cases in the UK were laboratory confirmed for Fujian/411-like viruses. To look for phylogenetic patterns and genetic markers that might be associated with increased virulence, sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the whole genomes of 63 viruses isolated from fatal cases and non fatal “control” cases was undertaken. The analysis revealed the circulation of two main genetic groups, I and II, both of which contained viruses from fatal cases. No associated amino acid substitutions could be linked with an exclusive or higher occurrence in fatal cases. The Fujian/411-like viruses in genetic groups I and II completely displaced other A(H3N2) viruses, but they disappeared after 2004. This study shows that two A(H3N2) virus genotypes circulated exclusively during the winter of 2003–2004 in the UK and caused an unusually high number of deaths in children. Host factors related to immune state and differences in genetic background between patients may also play important roles in determining the outcome of an influenza infection

Global update on the susceptibility of human influenza viruses to neuraminidase inhibitors, 2015-2016.

Four World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza and one WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Control of Influenza (WHO CCs) assessed antiviral susceptibility of 14,330 influenza A and B viruses collected by WHO-recognized National Influenza Centres (NICs) between May 2015 and May 2016. Neuraminidase (NA) inhibition assay was used to determine 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) data for NA inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir, zanamivir, peramivir and laninamivir. Furthermore, NA sequences from 13,484 influenza viruses were retrieved from public sequence databases and screened for amino acid substitutions (AAS) associated with reduced inhibition (RI) or highly reduced inhibition (HRI) by NAIs. Of the viruses tested by WHO CCs 93% were from three WHO regions: Western Pacific, the Americas and Europe. Approximately 0.8% (n = 113) exhibited either RI or HRI by at least one of four NAIs. As in previous seasons, the most common NA AAS was H275Y in A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, which confers HRI by oseltamivir and peramivir. Two A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses carried a rare NA AAS, S247R, shown in this study to confer RI/HRI by the four NAIs. The overall frequency of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses containing NA AAS associated with RI/HRI was approximately 1.8% (125/6915), which is slightly higher than in the previous 2014-15 season (0.5%). Three B/Victoria-lineage viruses contained a new AAS, NA H134N, which conferred HRI by zanamivir and laninamivir, and borderline HRI by peramivir. A single B/Victoria-lineage virus harboured NA G104E, which was associated with HRI by all four NAIs. The overall frequency of RI/HRI phenotype among type B viruses was approximately 0.6% (43/7677), which is lower than that in the previous season. Overall, the vast majority (>99%) of the viruses tested by WHO CCs were susceptible to all four NAIs, showing normal inhibition (NI). Hence, NAIs remain the recommended antivirals for treatment of influenza virus infections. Nevertheless, our data indicate that it is prudent to continue drug susceptibility monitoring using both NAI assay and sequence analysis

Human Tumor Cell Proliferation Evaluated Using Manganese-Enhanced MRI

Tumor cell proliferation can depend on calcium entry across the cell membrane. As a first step toward the development of a non-invasive test of the extent of tumor cell proliferation in vivo, we tested the hypothesis that tumor cell uptake of a calcium surrogate, Mn(2+) [measured with manganese-enhanced MRI (MEMRI)], is linked to proliferation rate in vitro.Proliferation rates were determined in vitro in three different human tumor cell lines: C918 and OCM-1 human uveal melanomas and PC-3 prostate carcinoma. Cells growing at different average proliferation rates were exposed to 1 mM MnCl(2) for one hour and then thoroughly washed. MEMRI R(1) values (longitudinal relaxation rates), which have a positive linear relationship with Mn(2+) concentration, were then determined from cell pellets. Cell cycle distributions were determined using propidium iodide staining and flow cytometry. All three lines showed Mn(2+)-induced increases in R(1) compared to cells not exposed to Mn(2+). C918 and PC-3 cells each showed a significant, positive correlation between MEMRI R(1) values and proliferation rate (p≤0.005), while OCM-1 cells showed no significant correlation. Preliminary, general modeling of these positive relationships suggested that pellet R(1) for the PC-3 cells, but not for the C918 cells, could be adequately described by simply accounting for changes in the distribution of the cell cycle-dependent subpopulations in the pellet.These data clearly demonstrate the tumor-cell dependent nature of the relationship between proliferation and calcium influx, and underscore the usefulness of MEMRI as a non-invasive method for investigating this link. MEMRI is applicable to study tumors in vivo, and the present results raise the possibility of evaluating proliferation parameters of some tumor types in vivo using MEMRI

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone