The impact of satellite sensor viewing geometry on time-series analysis of volcanic emissions

Time-series analysis techniques are being increasingly used to process satellite observations of volcanic gas emissions and heat flux, with the aim of identifying cyclic behaviour that could inform hazard assessment or elucidate volcanic processes. However, it can be difficult to distinguish cyclic variations due to geophysical processes from those that are artefacts of the observation technique. Here, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into the origin of cyclicity in volcanic observations by analysing daily, global satellite measurements of volcanic SO2 loading by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and thermal infrared anomalies detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We use a fast Fourier Transform (FFT) multi-taper method (MTM) to analyse multiple phases of activity at 32 target volcanoes, utilising measurements obtained from three NASA satellite instruments (Aura – OMI, Aqua – MODIS and Terra – MODIS), and identify a common cycle (period of ~ 2.3 days), which is not considered to be of volcanic origin. Based on the presence of this cycle in multiple satellite datasets, we attribute it to variations in viewing angle during the 16-day orbit repeat cycle of sun-synchronous satellites maintained in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). A 5-point averaging correction procedure is tested on satellite observations from Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, and is found to reduce the impact of higher frequency cycles and reveal the presence of longer-period geophysical signals. In addition to the identification of a signal common to different measurement techniques, an underlying cyclical pattern was found in the OMI SO2 observations (periods of ~ 7.9 and 3.2 days) generated by the OMI Row Anomaly (ORA). We conclude that identification of the presence and magnitude of non-geophysical cyclic behaviour, which can suppress natural cycles in time-series data, and implementation of appropriate corrections, is crucial for accurate interpretation of satellite observations. The use of data averaging to suppress non-geophysical cycles imposes limits on the length of natural cycles that can be confidently identified in moderate resolution satellite observations from polar-orbiting spacecraft

Enhancing the experience of carers in the chemotherapy outpatient setting: an exploratory randomised controlled trial to test impact, acceptability and feasibility of a complex intervention co-designed by carers and staff

PurposeSupporting someone through chemotherapy can be emotionally and physically demanding. However, research has yet to establish the type of support carers require or the best way to provide this. This study tested the feasibility and acceptability of a complex intervention for carers that was co-designed by staff and carers of patients starting chemotherapy.MethodsForty-seven carers were recruited, randomised between the intervention (n?=?24) and control (n?=?23) groups. A questionnaire was completed pre- and post-intervention measuring knowledge of chemotherapy and its side effects, experience of care, satisfaction with outpatient services, coping and emotional wellbeing. The intervention process was evaluated by carers and healthcare professionals (HCPs) in focus groups.ResultsRecruitment to the study was unproblematic and attrition from it was low, suggesting the intervention and study processes were acceptable to patients and carers. Carers in receipt of the ‘Take Care’ intervention reported statistically significantly better understanding of symptoms and side effects and their information needs being more frequently met than carers in the control. Confidence in coping improved between baseline and follow-up for the intervention group and declined for the control although differences were insufficient to achieve statistical significance. There was no significant difference between the two groups’ emotional wellbeing. HCP and carer focus groups confirmed the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention.ConclusionsThe ‘Take Care’ intervention proved acceptable to carers and HCPs and demonstrates considerable promise and utility in practice. Study findings support the conduct of a fully powered RCT to determine the intervention’s effectiveness and cost-effectiveness

Neurodegeneration and Epilepsy in a Zebrafish Model of CLN3 Disease (Batten Disease)

The neuronal ceroid lipofuscinoses are a group of lysosomal storage disorders that comprise the most common, genetically heterogeneous, fatal neurodegenerative disorders of children. They are characterised by childhood onset, visual failure, epileptic seizures, psychomotor retardation and dementia. CLN3 disease, also known as Batten disease, is caused by autosomal recessive mutations in the CLN3 gene, 80–85% of which are a ~1 kb deletion. Currently no treatments exist, and after much suffering, the disease inevitably results in premature death. The aim of this study was to generate a zebrafish model of CLN3 disease using antisense morpholino injection, and characterise the pathological and functional consequences of Cln3 deficiency, thereby providing a tool for future drug discovery. The model was shown to faithfully recapitulate the pathological signs of CLN3 disease, including reduced survival, neuronal loss, retinopathy, axonopathy, loss of motor function, lysosomal storage of subunit c of mitochondrial ATP synthase, and epileptic seizures, albeit with an earlier onset and faster progression than the human disease. Our study provides proof of principle that the advantages of the zebrafish over other model systems can be utilised to further our understanding of the pathogenesis of CLN3 disease and accelerate drug discovery

Sudden cardiac death due to deficiency of the mitochondrial inorganic pyrophosphatase PPA2

We have used whole exome sequencing to identify biallelic missense mutations in the nuclearencoded mitochondrial inorganic pyrophosphatase (PPA2) in ten individuals from four unrelated pedigrees that are associated with mitochondrial disease. These individuals show a range of severity, indicating that PPA2 mutations may cause a spectrum of mitochondrial disease phenotypes. Severe symptoms include seizures, lactic acidosis and cardiac arrhythmia and death within days of birth. In the index family, presentation was milder and manifested as cardiac fibrosis and an exquisite sensitivity to alcohol, leading to sudden arrhythmic cardiac death in the second decade of life. Comparison of normal and mutated PPA2 containing mitochondria from fibroblasts showed the activity of inorganic pyrophosphatase significantly reduced in affected individuals. Recombinant PPA2 enzymes modeling hypomorphic missense mutations had decreased activity that correlated with disease severity. These findings confirm the pathogenicity of PPA2 mutations, and suggest that PPA2 is a new cardiomyopathy-associated protein, which has a greater physiological importance in mitochondrial function than previously recognized

DNAAF1 links heart laterality with the AAA+ ATPase RUVBL1 and ciliary intraflagellar transport

DNAAF1 (LRRC50) is a cytoplasmic protein required for dynein heavy chain assembly and cilia motility, and DNAAF1 mutations cause primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD; MIM 613193). We describe four families with DNAAF1 mutations and complex congenital heart disease (CHD). In three families, all affected individuals have typical PCD phenotypes. However, an additional family demonstrates isolated CHD (heterotaxy) in two affected siblings, but no clinical evidence of PCD. We identified a homozygous DNAAF1 missense mutation, p.Leu191Phe, as causative for heterotaxy in this family. Genetic complementation in dnaaf1-null zebrafish embryos demonstrated the rescue of normal heart looping with wild-type human DNAAF1, but not the p.Leu191Phe variant, supporting the conserved pathogenicity of this DNAAF1 missense mutation. This observation points to a phenotypic continuum between CHD and PCD, providing new insights into the pathogenesis of isolated CHD. In further investigations of the function of DNAAF1 in dynein arm assembly, we identified interactions with members of a putative dynein arm assembly complex. These include the ciliary intraflagellar transport protein IFT88 and the AAA+ (ATPases Associated with various cellular Activities) family proteins RUVBL1 (Pontin) and RUVBL2 (Reptin). Co-localization studies support these findings, with the loss of RUVBL1 perturbing the co-localization of DNAAF1 with IFT88. We show that RUVBL1 orthologues have an asymmetric left-sided distribution at both the mouse embryonic node and the Kupffer’s vesicle in zebrafish embryos, with the latter asymmetry dependent on DNAAF1. These results suggest that DNAAF1-RUVBL1 biochemical and genetic interactions have a novel functional role in symmetry breaking and cardiac development

Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling.

Background: The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is a key statistic for estimating the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been continuously debated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The age-specific IFR can be quantified using antibody surveys to estimate total infections, but requires consideration of delay-distributions from time from infection to seroconversion, time to death, and time to seroreversion (i.e. antibody waning) alongside serologic test sensitivity and specificity. Previous IFR estimates have not fully propagated uncertainty or accounted for these potential biases, particularly seroreversion. Methods: We built a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates these factors and applied this model to simulated data and 10 serologic studies from different countries. Results: We demonstrate that seroreversion becomes a crucial factor as time accrues but is less important during first-wave, short-term dynamics. We additionally show that disaggregating surveys by regions with higher versus lower disease burden can inform serologic test specificity estimates. The overall IFR in each setting was estimated at 0.49-2.53%. Conclusion: We developed a robust statistical framework to account for full uncertainties in the parameters determining IFR. We provide code for others to apply these methods to further datasets and future epidemics

Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rt eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission

Accommodating Dynamic Oceanographic Processes and Pelagic Biodiversity in Marine Conservation Planning

Pelagic ecosystems support a significant and vital component of the ocean's productivity and biodiversity. They are also heavily exploited and, as a result, are the focus of numerous spatial planning initiatives. Over the past decade, there has been increasing enthusiasm for protected areas as a tool for pelagic conservation, however, few have been implemented. Here we demonstrate an approach to plan protected areas that address the physical and biological dynamics typical of the pelagic realm. Specifically, we provide an example of an approach to planning protected areas that integrates pelagic and benthic conservation in the southern Benguela and Agulhas Bank ecosystems off South Africa. Our aim was to represent species of importance to fisheries and species of conservation concern within protected areas. In addition to representation, we ensured that protected areas were designed to consider pelagic dynamics, characterized from time-series data on key oceanographic processes, together with data on the abundance of small pelagic fishes. We found that, to have the highest likelihood of reaching conservation targets, protected area selection should be based on time-specific data rather than data averaged across time. More generally, we argue that innovative methods are needed to conserve ephemeral and dynamic pelagic biodiversity

M1 muscarinic allosteric modulators slow prion neurodegeneration and restore memory loss.

The current frontline symptomatic treatment for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is whole-body upregulation of cholinergic transmission via inhibition of acetylcholinesterase. This approach leads to profound dose-related adverse effects. An alternative strategy is to selectively target muscarinic acetylcholine receptors, particularly the M1 muscarinic acetylcholine receptor (M1 mAChR), which was previously shown to have procognitive activity. However, developing M1 mAChR-selective orthosteric ligands has proven challenging. Here, we have shown that mouse prion disease shows many of the hallmarks of human AD, including progressive terminal neurodegeneration and memory deficits due to a disruption of hippocampal cholinergic innervation. The fact that we also show that muscarinic signaling is maintained in both AD and mouse prion disease points to the latter as an excellent model for testing the efficacy of muscarinic pharmacological entities. The memory deficits we observed in mouse prion disease were completely restored by treatment with benzyl quinolone carboxylic acid (BQCA) and benzoquinazoline-12 (BQZ-12), two highly selective positive allosteric modulators (PAMs) of M1 mAChRs. Furthermore, prolonged exposure to BQCA markedly extended the lifespan of diseased mice. Thus, enhancing hippocampal muscarinic signaling using M1 mAChR PAMs restored memory loss and slowed the progression of mouse prion disease, indicating that this ligand type may have clinical benefit in diseases showing defective cholinergic transmission, such as AD

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant