Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa : effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool.; The dynamic Plasmodium falciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings.; Selected (best) GLMs explained 94-97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86-97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74-95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5-7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached.; Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control

Sloshing in High Speed Galaxy Interactions

Observations of lopsided spiral galaxies motivated us to explore whether the rapid passage of a companion galaxy could cause them. We examine whether the center of mass of the visible matter becomes displaced from the center of mass of the dark halo during the intruder's passage, thereby causing an asymmetric response and asymmetric structure. Two dimensional $N$-body simulations indicate that this can happen. We also explore some consequences of this offset. These include the center of mass of the visible disk following a decaying orbit around the halo center of mass and the development of transient one-armed spirals that persist for up to six rotation periods. We then study the results of a variety of initial conditions based on such offsets. We report on the results of several runs in which we initially offset a disk from its halo's center of mass by an amount typical of the above interaction. In some runs the halo is free to move, while in others it is held fixed. We used three different mass distributions for the halo in these runs. We find that the disk's center of mass spiraled inward creating a variety of observed or observable phenomena including one-armed spirals, massive clumps of particles, and counter-rotating waves. The systems settle into relatively axisymmetric configurations. Whether or not the end states included a bar depended on a variety of initial conditions.Comment: 20 text pages, 3 tables, 24 figures. A gzipped postscripped version with higher resolution figures can be downloaded from http://butch.umephy.maine.edu/kickers/Research/Sloshing/ . Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Renormalized spin coefficients in the accumulated orbital phase for unequal mass black hole binaries

We analyze galactic black hole mergers and their emitted gravitational waves. Such mergers have typically unequal masses with mass ratio of the order 1/10. The emitted gravitational waves carry the inprint of spins and mass quadrupoles of the binary components. Among these contributions, we consider here the quasi-precessional evolution of the spins. A method of taking into account these third post-Newtonian (3PN) effects by renormalizing (redefining) the 1.5 PN and 2PN accurate spin contributions to the accumulated orbital phase is developed.Comment: 10 pages, to appear in Class. Quantum Grav. GWDAW13 Proceedings Special Issue, v2: no typos conjectur

Gravitating discs around black holes

Fluid discs and tori around black holes are discussed within different approaches and with the emphasis on the role of disc gravity. First reviewed are the prospects of investigating the gravitational field of a black hole--disc system by analytical solutions of stationary, axially symmetric Einstein's equations. Then, more detailed considerations are focused to middle and outer parts of extended disc-like configurations where relativistic effects are small and the Newtonian description is adequate. Within general relativity, only a static case has been analysed in detail. Results are often very inspiring, however, simplifying assumptions must be imposed: ad hoc profiles of the disc density are commonly assumed and the effects of frame-dragging and completely lacking. Astrophysical discs (e.g. accretion discs in active galactic nuclei) typically extend far beyond the relativistic domain and are fairly diluted. However, self-gravity is still essential for their structure and evolution, as well as for their radiation emission and the impact on the environment around. For example, a nuclear star cluster in a galactic centre may bear various imprints of mutual star--disc interactions, which can be recognised in observational properties, such as the relation between the central mass and stellar velocity dispersion.Comment: Accepted for publication in CQG; high-resolution figures will be available from http://www.iop.org/EJ/journal/CQ

Kinematics of Ten Early-Type Galaxies from HST and Ground-Based Spectroscopy

We present stellar kinematics for a sample of 10 early-type galaxies observed using the STIS aboard the Hubble Space Telescope, and the Modular Spectrograph on the MDM Observatory 2.4-m telescope. The spectra are used to derive line-of-sight velocity distributions (LOSVDs) of the stars using a Maximum Penalized Likelihood method. We use Gauss-Hermite polynomials to parameterize the LOSVDs and find predominantly negative h4 values (boxy distributions) in the central regions of our galaxies. One galaxy, NGC 4697, has significantly positive central h4 (high tail weight). The majority of galaxies have a central velocity dispersion excess in the STIS kinematics over ground-based velocity dispersions. The galaxies with the strongest rotational support, as quantified with v_MAX/sigma_STIS, have the smallest dispersion excess at STIS resolution. The best-fitting, general, axisymmetric dynamical models (described in a companion paper) require black holes in all cases, with masses ranging from 10^6.5 to 10^9.3 Msun. We replot these updated masses on the BH/sigma relation, and show that the fit to only these 10 galaxies has a slope consistent with the fits to larger samples. The greatest outlier is NGC 2778, a dwarf elliptical with relatively poorly constrained black hole mass. The two best candidates for pseudobulges, NGC 3384 and 7457, do not deviate significantly from the established relation between black hole and sigma. Neither do the three galaxies which show the most evidence of a recent merger, NGC 3608, 4473, and 4697.Comment: 43 pages, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, high resolution version found at http://hoku.as.utexas.edu/~gebhardt/pinkney.p

Highlights from the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is the world's largest cosmic ray observatory. Our current exposure reaches nearly 40,000 km$^2$ str and provides us with an unprecedented quality data set. The performance and stability of the detectors and their enhancements are described. Data analyses have led to a number of major breakthroughs. Among these we discuss the energy spectrum and the searches for large-scale anisotropies. We present analyses of our X$_{max}$ data and show how it can be interpreted in terms of mass composition. We also describe some new analyses that extract mass sensitive parameters from the 100% duty cycle SD data. A coherent interpretation of all these recent results opens new directions. The consequences regarding the cosmic ray composition and the properties of UHECR sources are briefly discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 12 figures, talk given at the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Rio de Janeiro 201

The Eighth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Data from SDSS-III

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) started a new phase in August 2008, with new instrumentation and new surveys focused on Galactic structure and chemical evolution, measurements of the baryon oscillation feature in the clustering of galaxies and the quasar Ly alpha forest, and a radial velocity search for planets around ~8000 stars. This paper describes the first data release of SDSS-III (and the eighth counting from the beginning of the SDSS). The release includes five-band imaging of roughly 5200 deg^2 in the Southern Galactic Cap, bringing the total footprint of the SDSS imaging to 14,555 deg^2, or over a third of the Celestial Sphere. All the imaging data have been reprocessed with an improved sky-subtraction algorithm and a final, self-consistent photometric recalibration and flat-field determination. This release also includes all data from the second phase of the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Evolution (SEGUE-2), consisting of spectroscopy of approximately 118,000 stars at both high and low Galactic latitudes. All the more than half a million stellar spectra obtained with the SDSS spectrograph have been reprocessed through an improved stellar parameters pipeline, which has better determination of metallicity for high metallicity stars.Comment: Astrophysical Journal Supplements, in press (minor updates from submitted version

The Seventh Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

This paper describes the Seventh Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), marking the completion of the original goals of the SDSS and the end of the phase known as SDSS-II. It includes 11663 deg^2 of imaging data, with most of the roughly 2000 deg^2 increment over the previous data release lying in regions of low Galactic latitude. The catalog contains five-band photometry for 357 million distinct objects. The survey also includes repeat photometry over 250 deg^2 along the Celestial Equator in the Southern Galactic Cap. A coaddition of these data goes roughly two magnitudes fainter than the main survey. The spectroscopy is now complete over a contiguous area of 7500 deg^2 in the Northern Galactic Cap, closing the gap that was present in previous data releases. There are over 1.6 million spectra in total, including 930,000 galaxies, 120,000 quasars, and 460,000 stars. The data release includes improved stellar photometry at low Galactic latitude. The astrometry has all been recalibrated with the second version of the USNO CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC-2), reducing the rms statistical errors at the bright end to 45 milli-arcseconds per coordinate. A systematic error in bright galaxy photometr is less severe than previously reported for the majority of galaxies. Finally, we describe a series of improvements to the spectroscopic reductions, including better flat-fielding and improved wavelength calibration at the blue end, better processing of objects with extremely strong narrow emission lines, and an improved determination of stellar metallicities. (Abridged)Comment: 20 pages, 10 embedded figures. Accepted to ApJS after minor correction

Host galaxies, clustering, Eddington ratios, and evolution of radio, X-ray, and infrared-selected AGNs

We explore the connection between different classes of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the evolution of their host galaxies, by deriving host galaxy properties, clustering, and Eddington ratios of AGNs selected in the radio, X-ray, and infrared. We study a sample of 585 AGNs at 0.25 < z < 0.8 using redshifts from the AGN and Galaxy Evolution Survey (AGES) and data in the radio (WSRT 1.4 GHz), X-rays (Chandra XBootes), and mid-IR (IRAC Shallow Survey). The radio, X-ray, and IR AGN samples show modest overlap, indicating that to the flux limits of the survey, they represent largely distinct classes of AGNs. We derive host galaxy colors and luminosities, as well as Eddington ratios (lambda), for obscured or optically faint AGNs. We also measure the two-point cross-correlation between AGNs and galaxies on scales of 0.3-10 h^-1 Mpc, and derive typical dark matter halo masses. We find that: (1) radio AGNs are mainly found in luminous red galaxies, are strongly clustered (with M_halo ~ 3x10^13 h^-1 M_sun), and have very low lambda <~ 10^-3; (2) X-ray-selected AGNs are preferentially found in galaxies in the "green valley" of color-magnitude space and are clustered similarly to typical AGES galaxies (M_halo ~ 10^13 h^-1 M_sun), with 10^-3 <~ lambda <~ 1; (3) IR AGNs reside in slightly bluer, less luminous galaxies than X-ray AGNs, are weakly clustered (M_halo <~ 10^12 h^-1 M_sun), and have lambda > 10^-2. We interpret these results in terms of a simple model of AGN and galaxy evolution, whereby a "quasar" phase and the growth of the stellar bulge occurs when a galaxy's dark matter halo reaches a critical mass between ~10^12 and 10^13 M_sun. Subsequently, star formation ceases and AGN accretion shifts from radiatively efficient (optical- and IR- bright) to radiatively inefficient (optically-faint, radio-bright) modes.Comment: 30 emulateapj pages, 21 figures, 3 tables, v2: minor changes match version to appear in Ap