Sensitivity of global warming to carbon emissions: effects of heat and carbon uptake in a suite of Earth system models

Climate projections reveal global-mean surface warming increasing nearly linearly with cumulative carbon emissions. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing from CO2, and the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions. Mechanistically each term varies, respectively, with climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, radiative forcing contributions, and ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake. The sensitivity of surface warming to fossil-fuel carbon emissions is examined using an ensemble of Earth system models, forced either by an annual increase in atmospheric CO2 or by RCPs until year 2100. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is controlled by a temporal decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions, which is partly offset by a temporal increase in the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing. The decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 is due to a decline in the ratio of the global ocean carbon undersaturation to carbon emissions, while the increase in the dependence of surface warming is due to a decline in the ratio of ocean heat uptake to radiative forcing. At the present time, there are large intermodel differences in the sensitivity in surface warming to carbon emissions, which are mainly due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. These uncertainties undermine the ability to predict how much carbon may be emitted before reaching a warming target

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding ?0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth >500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding ?0.2 (?0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation

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The expansion of OMZs (Oxygen Minimum Zones) due to climate change and their possible evolution and impacts on the ecosystems and the atmosphere are still debated, mostly because of the unability of global climate models to adequatly reproduce the processes governing OMZs. In this study, we examine the factors controlling the oxygen budget, i.e. the equilibrium between oxygen sources and sinks in the northern Arabian Sea OMZ using an eddy-resolving biophysical model. Our model confirms that the biological consumption of oxygen is most intense below the region of highest productivity in the western Arabian Sea. The oxygen drawdown in this region is counterbalanced by the large supply of oxygenated waters originated from the south and advected horizontally by the western boundary current. Although the biological sink and the dynamical sources of oxygen compensate on annual average, we find that the seasonality of the dynamical transport of oxygen is 3 to 5 times larger than the seasonality of the biological sink. In agreement with previous findings, the resulting seasonality of oxygen concentration in the OMZ is relatively weak, with a variability of the order of 15% of the annual mean oxygen concentration in the oxycline and 5% elsewhere. This seasonality primarily arises from the vertical displacement of the OMZ forced by the monsoonal reversal of Ekman pumping across the basin. In coastal areas, the oxygen concentration is also modulated seasonally by lateral advection. Along the western coast of the Arabian Sea, the Somali Current transports oxygen-rich waters originated from the south during summer and oxygen-poor waters from the northeast during winter. Along the eastern coast of the Arabian Sea, we find that the main contributor to lateral advection in the OMZ is the Indian coastal undercurrent that advects southern oxygenated waters during summer and northern low-oxygen waters during winter. In this region, our model indicates that oxygen concentrations are modulated seasonally by coastal Kelvin waves and westward-propagating Rossby waves. Whereas on seasonal time scales the sources and sinks of oxygen are dominated by the mean vertical and lateral advection (Ekman pumping and monsoonal currents), on annual time scales we find that the biological sink is counterbalanced by the supply of oxygen sustained by mesoscale structures (eddies and filaments). Eddy-driven advection hence promotes the vertical supply of oxygen along the western coast of the Arabian Sea and the lateral transport of ventilated waters offshore the coast of Oman and southwest India

Decadal changes of the Western Arabian sea ecosystem

Historical data from oceanographic expeditions and remotely sensed data on outgoing longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed and ocean color in the western Arabian Sea (1950–2010) were used to investigate decadal trends in the physical and biochemical properties of the upper 300 m. 72 % of the 29,043 vertical profiles retrieved originated from USA and UK expeditions. Increasing outgoing longwave radiation, surface air temperatures and sea surface temperature were identified on decadal timescales. These were well correlated with decreasing wind speeds associated with a reduced Siberian High atmospheric anomaly. Shoaling of the oxycline and nitracline was observed as well as acidification of the upper 300 m. These physical and chemical changes were accompanied by declining chlorophyll-a concentrations, vertical macrofaunal habitat compression, declining sardine landings and an increase of fish kill incidents along the Omani coast

A statistical gap-filling method to interpolate global monthly surface ocean carbon dioxide data

We have developed a statistical gap-filling method adapted to the specific coverage and prop-erties of observed fugacity of surface ocean CO2(fCO2). We have used this method to interpolate the Sur-face Ocean CO2Atlas (SOCAT) v2 database on a 2.5832.58 global grid (south of 708N) for 1985–2011 atmonthly resolution. The method combines a spatial interpolation based on a ‘‘radius of influence’’ to deter-mine nearby similar fCO2values with temporal harmonic and cubic spline curve-fitting, and also fits long-term trends and seasonal cycles. Interannual variability is established using deviations of observations fromthe fitted trends and seasonal cycles. An uncertainty is computed for all interpolated values based on thespatial and temporal range of the interpolation. Tests of the method using model data show that it performsas well as or better than previous regional interpolation methods, but in addition it provides a near-globaland interannual coverage

Hydrological cycle amplification imposes spatial patterns on the climate change response of ocean pH and carbonate chemistry

​​​​​​​Ocean CO2 uptake and acidification in response to human activities are driven primarily by the rise in atmospheric CO2 but are also modulated by climate change. Existing work suggests that this “climate effect” influences the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon and acidification via the global increase in ocean temperature, although some regional responses have been attributed to changes in circulation or biological activity. Here, we investigate spatial patterns in the climate effect on surface ocean acidification (and the closely related carbonate chemistry) in an Earth system model under a rapid CO2-increase scenario and identify a different driving process. We show that the amplification of the hydrological cycle, a robustly simulated feature of climate change, is largely responsible for the spatial patterns in this climate effect at the sea surface. This “hydrological effect” can be understood as a subset of the total climate effect, which includes warming, hydrological cycle amplification, circulation, and biological changes. We demonstrate that it acts through two primary mechanisms: (i) directly diluting or concentrating dissolved ions by adding or removing freshwater and (ii) altering the sea surface temperature, which influences the solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and acidity of seawater. The hydrological effect opposes acidification in salinifying regions, most notably the subtropical Atlantic, and enhances acidification in freshening regions such as the western Pacific. Its single strongest effect is to dilute the negative ions that buffer the dissolution of CO2, quantified as alkalinity. The local changes in alkalinity, DIC, and pH linked to the pattern of hydrological cycle amplification are as strong as the (largely uniform) changes due to warming, explaining the weak increase in pH and DIC seen in the climate effect in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean

In situ measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 reveal an unexpected O2 signal over the tropical Atlantic Ocean

We present the first meridional transects of atmospheric O2 and CO2 over the Atlantic Ocean. We combine these measurements into the tracer atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), which is a measure of the oceanic contribution to atmospheric O2 variations. Our new in situ measurement system, deployed on board a commercial container ship during 2015, performs as well as or better than existing similar measurement systems. The data show small short-term variability (hours to days), a step-change corresponding to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and seasonal cycles that vary with latitude. In contrast to data from the Pacific Ocean and to previous modeling studies, our Atlantic Ocean APO data show no significant bulge in the tropics. This difference cannot be accounted for by interannual variability in the position of the ITCZ or the Atlantic Meridional Mode Index and appears to be a persistent feature of the Atlantic Ocean system. Modeled APO using the TM3 atmospheric transport model does exhibit a significant bulge over the Atlantic and overestimates the interhemispheric gradient in APO over the Atlantic Ocean. These results indicate that either there are inaccuracies in the oceanic flux data products in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean region, or that there are atmospheric transport inaccuracies in the model, or a combination of both. Our shipboard O2 and CO2 measurements are ongoing and will reveal the long-term nature of equatorial APO outgassing over the Atlantic as more data become available

Hydrological cycle amplification imposes spatial patterns on the climate change response of ocean pH and carbonate chemistry

​​​​​​​Ocean CO2 uptake and acidification in response to human activities are driven primarily by the rise in atmospheric CO2 but are also modulated by climate change. Existing work suggests that this “climate effect” influences the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon and acidification via the global increase in ocean temperature, although some regional responses have been attributed to changes in circulation or biological activity. Here, we investigate spatial patterns in the climate effect on surface ocean acidification (and the closely related carbonate chemistry) in an Earth system model under a rapid CO2-increase scenario and identify a different driving process. We show that the amplification of the hydrological cycle, a robustly simulated feature of climate change, is largely responsible for the spatial patterns in this climate effect at the sea surface. This “hydrological effect” can be understood as a subset of the total climate effect, which includes warming, hydrological cycle amplification, circulation, and biological changes. We demonstrate that it acts through two primary mechanisms: (i) directly diluting or concentrating dissolved ions by adding or removing freshwater and (ii) altering the sea surface temperature, which influences the solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and acidity of seawater. The hydrological effect opposes acidification in salinifying regions, most notably the subtropical Atlantic, and enhances acidification in freshening regions such as the western Pacific. Its single strongest effect is to dilute the negative ions that buffer the dissolution of CO2, quantified as alkalinity. The local changes in alkalinity, DIC, and pH linked to the pattern of hydrological cycle amplification are as strong as the (largely uniform) changes due to warming, explaining the weak increase in pH and DIC seen in the climate effect in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.</p

Ecosystem impacts of marine heat waves in the northeast Pacific

Marine heat waves (MHWs) are a recurrent phenomenon in the northeast Pacific that impact regional ecosystems and are expected to intensify in the future. Prior work showed that these events, including the 2014–2015 “warm blob”, are associated with widespread surface nutrient declines in the subpolar Alaska Gyre (AG) and the North Pacific Transition Zone (NPTZ) but reduced chlorophyll concentrations in the NPTZ only. Here we explain the contrast between these two regions using a global ocean biogeochemical model (MOM6-COBALT) with Argo float and ship-based observations to investigate how MHWs influence marine productivity. We find that phytoplankton and zooplankton production respond relatively modestly to MHWs in both regions. However, differences in the response to seasonal iron and nitrogen limitation between large (&gt;10 µm) and small (&lt;10 µm) phytoplankton size classes explain the differences in ecosystem response to MHWs across the two biomes. During MHWs, reduced nutrient supply limits large phytoplankton production in the NPTZ (−13 % annually) but has a limited impact on the already iron-limited large phytoplankton population in the AG (−2 %). In contrast, MHWs yield a springtime increase in small phytoplankton in both regions due to shallower mixed layers and weaker light limitation. These modest changes are in apparent contradiction with prior estimates suggesting a collapse in net community production during the warm blob. We show, however, that 70 % of the decline in net community production previously calculated from nitrate Argo data can be attributed to artifacts in the method and that only 30 % can be attributed to interannual variability, in line with our model-based results. Although modest, the primary production anomalies associated with MHWs modify the phytoplankton size distribution, resulting in a significant shift towards small phytoplankton production (i.e., lower large-to-small-phytoplankton ratio) and reduced secondary and export production, especially in the NPTZ