Bayesian inversion of synthetic AVO data to assess fluid and shale content in sand-shale media

Reservoir characterization of sand-shale sequences has always challenged geoscientists due to the presence of anisotropy in the form of shale lenses or shale layers. Water saturation and volume of shale are among the fundamental reservoir properties of interest for sand-shale intervals, and relate to the amount of fluid content and accumulating potentials of such media. This paper suggests an integrated workflow using synthetic data for the characterization of shaley-sand media based on anisotropic rock physics (T-matrix approximation) and seismic reflectivity modelling. A Bayesian inversion scheme for estimating reservoir parameters from amplitude vs. offset (AVO) data was used to obtain the information about uncertainties as well as their most likely values. The results from our workflow give reliable estimates of water saturation from AVO data at small uncertainties, provided background sand porosity values and isotropic overburden properties are known. For volume of shale, the proposed workflow provides reasonable estimates even when larger uncertainties are present in AVO data

Reservoir stress path and induced seismic anisotropy: Results from linking coupled fluid-flow/geomechanical simulation with seismic modelling

We present a workflow linking coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical simulation with seismic modelling to predict seismic anisotropy induced by nonhydrostatic stress changes. We generate seismic models from coupled simulations to examine the relationship between reservoir geometry, stress path and seismic anisotropy. The results indicate that geometry influences the evolution of stress, which leads to stress-induced seismic anisotropy. Although stress anisotropy is high for the small reservoir, the effect of stress arching and the ability of the side-burden to support the excess load limit the overall change in effective stress and hence seismic anisotropy. For the extensive reservoir, stress anisotropy and induced seismic anisotropy are high. The extensive and elongate reservoirs experience significant compaction, where the inefficiency of the developed stress arching in the side-burden cannot support the excess load. The elongate reservoir displays significant stress asymmetry, with seismic anisotropy developing predominantly along the long-edge of the reservoir. We show that the link between stress path parameters and seismic anisotropy is complex, where the anisotropic symmetry is controlled not only by model geometry but also the nonlinear rock physics model used. Nevertheless, a workflow has been developed to model seismic anisotropy induced by non-hydrostatic stress changes, allowing field observations of anisotropy to be linked with geomechanical models

All-sky search for gravitational-wave bursts in the second joint LIGO-Virgo run

We present results from a search for gravitational-wave bursts in the data collected by the LIGO and Virgo detectors between July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010: data are analyzed when at least two of the three LIGO-Virgo detectors are in coincident operation, with a total observation time of 207 days. The analysis searches for transients of duration < 1 s over the frequency band 64-5000 Hz, without other assumptions on the signal waveform, polarization, direction or occurrence time. All identified events are consistent with the expected accidental background. We set frequentist upper limits on the rate of gravitational-wave bursts by combining this search with the previous LIGO-Virgo search on the data collected between November 2005 and October 2007. The upper limit on the rate of strong gravitational-wave bursts at the Earth is 1.3 events per year at 90% confidence. We also present upper limits on source rate density per year and Mpc^3 for sample populations of standard-candle sources. As in the previous joint run, typical sensitivities of the search in terms of the root-sum-squared strain amplitude for these waveforms lie in the range 5 10^-22 Hz^-1/2 to 1 10^-20 Hz^-1/2. The combination of the two joint runs entails the most sensitive all-sky search for generic gravitational-wave bursts and synthesizes the results achieved by the initial generation of interferometric detectors.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures: data for plots and archived public version at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=70814&version=19, see also the public announcement at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S6BurstAllSky

Learning, evolvability and exploratory behaviour: extending the evolutionary reach of learning

Traditional accounts of the role of learning in evolution have concentrated upon its capacity as a source of fitness to individuals. In this paper I use a case study from invasive species biology—the role of conditioned taste aversion in mitigating the impact of cane toads on the native species of Northern Australia—to highlight a role for learning beyond this—as a source of evolvability to populations. This has two benefits. First, it highlights an otherwise under-appreciated role for learning in evolution that does not rely on social learning as an inheritance channel nor “special” evolutionary processes such as genetic accommodation (both of which many are skeptical about). Second, and more significantly, it makes clear important and interesting parallels between learning and exploratory behaviour in development. These parallels motivate the applicability of results from existing research into learning and learning evolution to our understanding the evolution of evolvability more generally.23 page(s

Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory simultaneously observed a transient gravitational-wave signal. The signal sweeps upwards in frequency from 35 to 250 Hz with a peak gravitational-wave strain of 1.0 × 10−21. It matches the waveform predicted by general relativity for the inspiral and merger of a pair of black holes and the ringdown of the resulting single black hole. The signal was observed with a matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203 000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1σ. The source lies at a luminosity distance of 410þ160 −180 Mpc corresponding to a redshift z ¼ 0.09þ0.03 −0.04 . In the source frame, the initial black hole masses are 36þ5 −4M⊙ and 29þ4 −4M⊙, and the final black hole mass is 62þ4 −4M⊙, with 3.0þ0.5 −0.5M⊙c2 radiated in gravitational waves. All uncertainties define 90% credible intervals. These observations demonstrate the existence of binary stellar-mass black hole systems. This is the first direct detection of gravitational waves and the first observation of a binary black hole merger

UpenWin - a new software for the inversion of multiexponential decay data.

UpenWin is a 32 bit application for Windows (currently tested under windows 98, XP and Vista), developed in C++ and MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) by means Visual Studio 2005, that implements an interface to facilitate the use of UPEN (Uniform PENalty) and its related input files. It is composed by a simple SDI (Single Document Interface) window with many dialog boxes. By means of the dialogs the user can pre-process the data file using the appropriate program filter, sets the value for the parameters, both for UPEN and programs filter, and runs a computation session. Parameters can be set also in the initial parameter file, by clicking the \u201cpar\u201d menu button and proceeding to the desired parameter file (such as Upenpar.par), making any needed changes, and saving or not saving as desired. UPEN is an executable (binary format) for Windows platform, developed in True Basic, that implements a new robust algorithm for the inversion of multiexponential decay data. The name refers to the application of negative feedback to a smoothing \u201cpenalty\u201d function to prevent excessive detail in distributions of relaxation times. This allows appropriate smoothing of both sharp peaks and broad features in the same distribution, allowing the sharp peaks without breaking broad features into multiple peaks not required by the data. This allows meaningful computation of the rms noise and supports additional UPEN objectives, which include identifying various data features and data problems (such as data not precisely fitting the model of multiexponential decay plus random noise), giving a series of diagnostics and warnings and allowing processing options where needed. There are many adjustable parameters in UPEN, most of which need not and should not be adjusted except in specialized circumstances or in basic investigation of UPEN function. The input data file for UPEN is a binary file produced by any of several preprocessing \u201cFilters\u201d. UPEN is an iterative inversion computation, and the evolving distributions and various computed quantities are shown at each iteration. When computation is complete, two text files are produced. A file with the extension .tst lists a number of computed parameters, including some diagnostic quantities. A file with the extension .dat lists the computed distributions in several forms and also lists the data