Global surface-ocean pCO2 and sea–air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme

A temporally and spatially resolved estimate of the global surface-ocean CO₂ partial pressure field and the sea–air CO₂ flux is presented, obtained by fitting a simple data-driven diagnostic model of ocean mixed-layer biogeochemistry to surface-ocean CO₂ partial pressure data from the SOCAT v1.5 database. Results include seasonal, interannual, and short-term (daily) variations. In most regions, estimated seasonality is well constrained from the data, and compares well to the widely used monthly climatology by Takahashi et al. (2009). Comparison to independent data tentatively supports the slightly higher seasonal variations in our estimates in some areas. We also fitted the diagnostic model to atmospheric CO₂ data. The results of this are less robust, but in those areas where atmospheric signals are not strongly influenced by land flux variability, their seasonality is nevertheless consistent with the results based on surface-ocean data. From a comparison with an independent seasonal climatology of surface-ocean nutrient concentration, the diagnostic model is shown to capture relevant surface-ocean biogeochemical processes reasonably well. Estimated interannual variations will be presented and discussed in a companion paper

Translucent zirconia in the ceramic scenario for monolithic restorations: A flexural strength and translucency comparison test

Objective: To compare three different compositions of Yttria-Tetragonal Zirconia Polycrystal (Y-TZP) ceramic and a lithium disilicate ceramic in terms of flexural strength and translucency. Methods: Three zirconia materials of different composition and translucency, Aadva ST [ST], Aadva EI [EI] and Aadva NT [NT](GC Tech, Leuven, Belgium) were cut with a slow speed diamond saw into beams and tabs in order to obtain, after sintering, dimensions of 1.2 × 4.0 × 15.0 mm and 15.0 × 15.0 × 1.0 mm respectively. Blocks of IPS e.max CAD LT were cut and crystallized in the same shapes and dimensions and used as a reference group [LD]. Beams (n = 15) were tested in a universal testing machine for three-point bending strength. Critical fracture load was recorded in N, flexural strength (σ in MPa), Weibull modulus (m) and Weibull characteristic strength (σ0 in MPa) were then calculated. Tabs (n = 10) were measured with a spectrophotometer equipped with an integrating sphere. Contrast Ratios were calculated as CR = Yb/Yw. SEM of thermally etched samples coupled with lineal line analysis (n = 6) was used to measure the tested zirconia grain size. Data were statistically analyzed. Results: Differences in translucency, flexural strength and grain size were found to be statistically significant. CR increased and flexural strength decreased in the following order ST(σ 1215 ± 190 MPa, CR 0.74 ± 0.01) > EI(σ 983 ± 182 MPa, CR 0.69 ± 0.01) > NT(σ 539 ± 66 MPa, CR 0.65 ± 0.01) > LD (σ 377 ± 39 Mpa, CR 0.56 ± 0.02). The average grain size was different for the three zirconia samples with NT(558 ± 38 nm) > ST(445 ± 34 nm) > EI(284 ± 11 nm). Conclusions: The zirconia composition heavily influenced both the flexural strength and the translucency. Different percentages of Yittria and Alumina result in new materials with intermediate properties in between the conventional zirconia and lithium disilicate. Clinical indications for Zirconia Aadva NT should be limited up to three-unit span bridges

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Expansion of oxygen minimum zones may reduce available habitat for tropical pelagic fishes

Climate model predictions1, 2 and observations3, 4 reveal regional declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen, which are probably influenced by global warming5. Studies indicate ongoing dissolved oxygen depletion and vertical expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the tropical northeast Atlantic Ocean6, 7. OMZ shoaling may restrict the usable habitat of billfishes and tunas to a narrow surface layer8, 9. We report a decrease in the upper ocean layer exceeding 3.5 ml l−1 dissolved oxygen at a rate of ≤1 m yr−1 in the tropical northeast Atlantic (0–25° N, 12–30° W), amounting to an annual habitat loss of ~5.95×1013 m3, or 15% for the period 1960–2010. Habitat compression and associated potential habitat loss was validated using electronic tagging data from 47 blue marlin. This phenomenon increases vulnerability to surface fishing gear for billfishes and tunas8, 9, and may be associated with a 10–50% worldwide decline of pelagic predator diversity10. Further expansion of the Atlantic OMZ along with overfishing may threaten the sustainability of these valuable pelagic fisheries and marine ecosystems

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: Case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models

Evolutionary distinctiveness of fatty acid and polyketide synthesis in eukaryotes

© 2016 International Society for Microbial Ecology All rights reserved. Fatty acids, which are essential cell membrane constituents and fuel storage molecules, are thought to share a common evolutionary origin with polyketide toxins in eukaryotes. While fatty acids are primary metabolic products, polyketide toxins are secondary metabolites that are involved in ecologically relevant processes, such as chemical defence, and produce the adverse effects of harmful algal blooms. Selection pressures on such compounds may be different, resulting in differing evolutionary histories. Surprisingly, some studies of dinoflagellates have suggested that the same enzymes may catalyse these processes. Here we show the presence and evolutionary distinctiveness of genes encoding six key enzymes essential for fatty acid production in 13 eukaryotic lineages for which no previous sequence data were available (alveolates: dinoflagellates, Vitrella, Chromera; stramenopiles: bolidophytes, chrysophytes, pelagophytes, raphidophytes, dictyochophytes, pinguiophytes, xanthophytes; Rhizaria: chlorarachniophytes, haplosporida; euglenids) and 8 other lineages (apicomplexans, bacillariophytes, synurophytes, cryptophytes, haptophytes, chlorophyceans, prasinophytes, trebouxiophytes). The phylogeny of fatty acid synthase genes reflects the evolutionary history of the organism, indicating selection to maintain conserved functionality. In contrast, polyketide synthase gene families are highly expanded in dinoflagellates and haptophytes, suggesting relaxed constraints in their evolutionary history, while completely absent from some protist lineages. This demonstrates a vast potential for the production of bioactive polyketide compounds in some lineages of microbial eukaryotes, indicating that the evolution of these compounds may have played an important role in their ecological success

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm. Here we overview the existing prime components of atmospheric and oceanic observing systems, with the acquisition of ocean–atmosphere observables either from in situ or from satellites, the rich hierarchy of models to test our knowledge of Earth System functioning, and the tremendous efforts accomplished over the last decade within the COST Action 735 and SOLAS Integration project frameworks to understand, as best we can, the current physical and biogeochemical state of the atmosphere and ocean commons. A few SOLAS integrative studies illustrate the full meaning of interactions, paving the way for even tighter connections between thematic fields. Ultimately, SOLAS research will also develop with an enhanced consideration of societal demand while preserving fundamental research coherency. The exchange of energy, gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by a variety of biological, chemical and physical processes that operate across broad spatial and temporal scales. These processes influence the composition, biogeochemical and chemical properties of both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers and ultimately shape the Earth system response to climate and environmental change, as detailed in the previous four chapters. In this cross-cutting chapter we present some of the SOLAS achievements over the last decade in terms of integration, upscaling observational information from process-oriented studies and expeditionary research with key tools such as remote sensing and modelling. Here we do not pretend to encompass the entire legacy of SOLAS efforts but rather offer a selective view of some of the major integrative SOLAS studies that combined available pieces of the immense jigsaw puzzle. These include, for instance, COST efforts to build up global climatologies of SOLAS relevant parameters such as dimethyl sulphide, interconnection between volcanic ash and ecosystem response in the eastern subarctic North Pacific, optimal strategy to derive basin-scale CO2 uptake with good precision, or significant reduction of the uncertainties in sea-salt aerosol source functions. Predicting the future trajectory of Earth’s climate and habitability is the main task ahead. Some possible routes for the SOLAS scientific community to reach this overarching goal conclude the chapter

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system. Ocean heat uptake during recent decades has been quantified using ocean temperature measurements. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainty due to sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here, we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) – levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases – as a whole ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.29 ± 0.79 × 1022 Joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.80 ± 0.49 W watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result – which relies on high-precision O2 atmospheric measurements dating back to 1991 – leverages an integrative Earth system approach and provides much needed independent confirmation of heat uptake estimated from ocean data