Essays on International Economics

University of Minnesota Ph.D. dissertation. August 2014. Major: Economics. Advisor: Timothy J. Kehoe. 1 computer file (PDF);viii, 102 pages, appendices A-C.This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Enoch Hill and I present a general equilibrium model where heterogeneous consumers endogenously choose whether to become workers, consumers or entrepreneurs in order to analyze how limits on the leverage of banks affect real output. In our model tighter limits on the leverage of banks cause an increase in the spread between the interest rate that banks charge for loans and the interest rate that banks pay for deposits. A higher spread results in two types of distortions: First, firms with the same productivity will have different size. Second, productive firms will cease to exist, while nonproductive ones will enter. These distortions result in lower production.In the second essay, Enoch Hill and I develop a general equilibrium model of theft, private security and public law enforcement (PLE) which matches both macro and micro empirical evidence. We find a non-monotonic relation between PLE and aggregate production. In particular, for countries with relatively small amounts of PLE, increasing the level can result in a reduction of aggregate production and welfare primarily due to an increase in the incarceration rate. However, for countries with higher levels of PLE, an increase in the level improves production and welfare. We also find the private security causes a negative externality in economies with low levels of PLE.In the third essay, Enoch Hill, Michael Maio and I propose an original model of firm hierarchy which suggests that firm structure is important for understanding the wage structure. In our model, more productive firms choose to employ more levels of management, which requires a higher average level of skill in workers and consequently a higher average skill premium. This is consistent with what we document in the Chilean data and also agrees with the firm size to skill premium relationship commonly documented in the literature. Additionally, our model predicts that skill premium is increasing in the ratio of workers to managers, a fact we also observe in the Chilean data

Cambios en los incentivos de los bancos como consecuencia de modificaciones en los esquemas de encaje

El uso del encaje como medida de política monetaria cobró relevancia desde 2007 en Colombia. Las modificaciones a los regímenes de encaje que se presentaron desde entonces cambiaron los incentivos de los establecimientos de crédito sobre sus preferencias de captación y sus respuestas de colocación. En este trabajo se plantea un modelo de organización industrial para analizar dichos cambios en los incentivos. Los resultados sugieren que incrementos en el requerimiento de encaje y disminuciones en la remuneración sobre el mismo para un tipo de depósitos generan recomposición hacia los demás, al igual que contracción en la cartera e incrementos en el margen de intermediación. Los resultados cualitativos son robustos ante diferentes parametrizaciones razonables. Este modelo puede ser utilizado como herramienta para medir los efectos de recomposición causados por cambios en los requerimientos de encaje y su estructura de remuneración

Dual purpose cattle production in Mexico

Cattle production is one of the most important livestock activities in the rural areas of Mexico, with most of the national territory dedicated to it, in addition to the use of the most agricultural supplies and forages resources, as well as agricultural and agro-industrial by-products. Mexico is placed among the ten first meat and milk producer countries worldwide, being the Mexican tropical zone one of the main suppliers of such products. One of the main milk sources is the dual purpose cattle, such systems can be described as those that produce milk (daily milking) and meat (calf after weaning), on every productive cycle. They are mainly located in developing regions and characterized by using low-technology and in poor environments, consequently productive levels are considered low. Milk is destined for self-consumption or for sale at local markets and calf after weaning is sold at local feedlots or for export. Regarding to the little information available about the dual purpose systems, the present work is intended to discuss the main characteristics of cattle production in dual purpose systems in Mexico

Pathway and network analysis of more than 2500 whole cancer genomes

The catalog of cancer driver mutations in protein-coding genes has greatly expanded in the past decade. However, non-coding cancer driver mutations are less well-characterized and only a handful of recurrent non-coding mutations, most notably TERT promoter mutations, have been reported. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2658 cancer across 38 tumor types, we perform multi-faceted pathway and network analyses of non-coding mutations across 2583 whole cancer genomes from 27 tumor types compiled by the ICGC/TCGA PCAWG project that was motivated by the success of pathway and network analyses in prioritizing rare mutations in protein-coding genes. While few non-coding genomic elements are recurrently mutated in this cohort, we identify 93 genes harboring non-coding mutations that cluster into several modules of interacting proteins. Among these are promoter mutations associated with reduced mRNA expression in TP53, TLE4, and TCF4. We find that biological processes had variable proportions of coding and non-coding mutations, with chromatin remodeling and proliferation pathways altered primarily by coding mutations, while developmental pathways, including Wnt and Notch, altered by both coding and non-coding mutations. RNA splicing is primarily altered by non-coding mutations in this cohort, and samples containing non-coding mutations in well-known RNA splicing factors exhibit similar gene expression signatures as samples with coding mutations in these genes. These analyses contribute a new repertoire of possible cancer genes and mechanisms that are altered by non-coding mutations and offer insights into additional cancer vulnerabilities that can be investigated for potential therapeutic treatments

Measurements of Transverse Energy Flow in Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Measurements of transverse energy flow are presented for neutral current deep-inelastic scattering events produced in positron-proton collisions at HERA. The kinematic range covers squared momentum transfers Q^2 from 3.2 to 2,200 GeV^2, the Bjorken scaling variable x from 8.10^{-5} to 0.11 and the hadronic mass W from 66 to 233 GeV. The transverse energy flow is measured in the hadronic centre of mass frame and is studied as a function of Q^2, x, W and pseudorapidity. A comparison is made with QCD based models. The behaviour of the mean transverse energy in the central pseudorapidity region and an interval corresponding to the photon fragmentation region are analysed as a function of Q^2 and W.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Eur. Phys.

Measurement of D* Meson Cross Sections at HERA and Determination of the Gluon Density in the Proton using NLO QCD

With the H1 detector at the ep collider HERA, D* meson production cross sections have been measured in deep inelastic scattering with four-momentum transfers Q^2>2 GeV2 and in photoproduction at energies around W(gamma p)~ 88 GeV and 194 GeV. Next-to-Leading Order QCD calculations are found to describe the differential cross sections within theoretical and experimental uncertainties. Using these calculations, the NLO gluon momentum distribution in the proton, x_g g(x_g), has been extracted in the momentum fraction range 7.5x10^{-4}< x_g <4x10^{-2} at average scales mu^2 =25 to 50 GeV2. The gluon momentum fraction x_g has been obtained from the measured kinematics of the scattered electron and the D* meson in the final state. The results compare well with the gluon distribution obtained from the analysis of scaling violations of the proton structure function F_2.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Nucl. Phys.

The 13th Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the SDSS-IV Survey Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory

The fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) began observations in July 2014. It pursues three core programs: APOGEE-2,MaNGA, and eBOSS. In addition, eBOSS contains two major subprograms: TDSS and SPIDERS. This paper describes the first data release from SDSS-IV, Data Release 13 (DR13), which contains new data, reanalysis of existing data sets and, like all SDSS data releases, is inclusive of previously released data. DR13 makes publicly available 1390 spatially resolved integral field unit observations of nearby galaxies from MaNGA,the first data released from this survey. It includes new observations from eBOSS, completing SEQUELS. In addition to targeting galaxies and quasars, SEQUELS also targeted variability-selected objects from TDSS and X-ray selected objects from SPIDERS. DR13 includes new reductions ofthe SDSS-III BOSS data, improving the spectrophotometric calibration and redshift classification. DR13 releases new reductions of the APOGEE-1data from SDSS-III, with abundances of elements not previously included and improved stellar parameters for dwarf stars and cooler stars. For the SDSS imaging data, DR13 provides new, more robust and precise photometric calibrations. Several value-added catalogs are being released in tandem with DR13, in particular target catalogs relevant for eBOSS, TDSS, and SPIDERS, and an updated red-clump catalog for APOGEE.This paper describes the location and format of the data now publicly available, as well as providing references to the important technical papers that describe the targeting, observing, and data reduction. The SDSS website, http://www.sdss.org, provides links to the data, tutorials and examples of data access, and extensive documentation of the reduction and analysis procedures. DR13 is the first of a scheduled set that will contain new data and analyses from the planned ~6-year operations of SDSS-IV.PostprintPeer reviewe

Stress and worry in the 2020 coronavirus pandemic: Relationships to trust and compliance with preventive measures across 48 countries in the COVIDiSTRESS global survey

The COVIDiSTRESS global survey collects data on early human responses to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic from 173 429 respondents in 48 countries. The open science study was co-designed by an international consortium of researchers to investigate how psychological responses differ across countries and cultures, and how this has impacted behaviour, coping and trust in government efforts to slow the spread of the virus. Starting in March 2020, COVIDiSTRESS leveraged the convenience of unpaid online recruitment to generate public data. The objective of the present analysis is to understand relationships between psychological responses in the early months of global coronavirus restrictions and help understand how different government measures succeed or fail in changing public behaviour. There were variations between and within countries. Although Western Europeans registered as more concerned over COVID-19, more stressed, and having slightly more trust in the governments' efforts, there was no clear geographical pattern in compliance with behavioural measures. Detailed plots illustrating between-countries differences are provided. Using both traditional and Bayesian analyses, we found that individuals who worried about getting sick worked harder to protect themselves and others. However, concern about the coronavirus itself did not account for all of the variances in experienced stress during the early months of COVID-19 restrictions. More alarmingly, such stress was associated with less compliance. Further, those most concerned over the coronavirus trusted in government measures primarily where policies were strict. While concern over a disease is a source of mental distress, other factors including strictness of protective measures, social support and personal lockdown conditions must also be taken into consideration to fully appreciate the psychological impact of COVID-19 and to understand why some people fail to follow behavioural guidelines intended to protect themselves and others from infection. The Stage 1 manuscript associated with this submission received in-principle acceptance (IPA) on 18 May 2020. Following IPA, the accepted Stage 1 version of the manuscript was preregistered on the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/g2t3b. This preregistration was performed prior to data analysis

Charmonium Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

The electroproduction of J/psi and psi(2S) mesons is studied in elastic, quasi-elastic and inclusive reactions for four momentum transfers 2 Q^2 80 GeV^2 and photon-proton centre of mass energies 25 W 180 GeV. The data were taken with the H1 detector at the electron proton collider HERA in the years 1995 to 1997. The total virtual photon-proton cross section for elastic J/psi production is measured as a function of Q^2 and W. The dependence of the production rates on the square of the momentum transfer from the proton (t) is extracted. Decay angular distributions are analysed and the ratio of the longitudinal and transverse cross sections is derived. The ratio of the cross sections for quasi-elastic psi(2S) and J/psi meson production is measured as a function of Q^2. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical models based upon perturbative QCD. Differential cross sections for inclusive and inelastic production of J/psi mesons are determined and predictions within two theoretical frameworks are compared with the data, the non-relativistic QCD factorization approach including colour octet and colour singlet contributions, and the model of Soft Colour Interactions

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation