Spatially Aware Ensemble-Based Learning to Predict Weather-Related Outages in Transmission

This paper describes the implementation of prediction model for real-time assessment of weather related outages in the electric transmission system. The network data and historical outages are correlated with variety of weather sources in order to construct the knowledge extraction platform for accurate outage probability prediction. An extension of logistic regression prediction model that embeds the spatial configuration of the network was used for prediction. The results show that developed algorithm has very high accuracy and is able to differentiate the outage area from the rest of the network in 1 to 3 hours before the outage. The prediction algorithm is integrated inside weather testbed for real-time mapping of network outage probabilities using incoming weather forecast

Models of turbulent dissipation regions in the diffuse interstellar medium

Supersonic turbulence is a large reservoir of suprathermal energy in the interstellar medium. Its dissipation, because it is intermittent in space and time, can deeply modify the chemistry of the gas. We further explore a hybrid method to compute the chemical and thermal evolution of a magnetized dissipative structure, under the energetic constraints provided by the observed properties of turbulence in the cold neutral medium. For the first time, we model a random line of sight by taking into account the relative duration of the bursts with respect to the thermal and chemical relaxation timescales of the gas. The key parameter is the turbulent rate of strain "a" due to the ambient turbulence. With the gas density, it controls the size of the dissipative structures, therefore the strength of the burst. For a large range of rates of strain and densities, the models of turbulent dissipation regions (TDR) reproduce the CH+ column densities observed in the diffuse medium and their correlation with highly excited H2. They do so without producing an excess of CH. As a natural consequence, they reproduce the abundance ratios of HCO+/OH and HCO+/H2O, and their dynamic range of about one order of magnitude observed in diffuse gas. Large C2H and CO abundances, also related to those of HCO+, are another outcome of the TDR models that compare well with observed values. The abundances and column densities computed for CN, HCN and HNC are one order of magnitude above PDR model predictions, although still significantly smaller than observed values

Modelling CO formation in the turbulent interstellar medium

We present results from high-resolution three-dimensional simulations of turbulent interstellar gas that self-consistently follow its coupled thermal, chemical and dynamical evolution, with a particular focus on the formation and destruction of H2 and CO. We quantify the formation timescales for H2 and CO in physical conditions corresponding to those found in nearby giant molecular clouds, and show that both species form rapidly, with chemical timescales that are comparable to the dynamical timescale of the gas. We also investigate the spatial distributions of H2 and CO, and how they relate to the underlying gas distribution. We show that H2 is a good tracer of the gas distribution, but that the relationship between CO abundance and gas density is more complex. The CO abundance is not well-correlated with either the gas number density n or the visual extinction A_V: both have a large influence on the CO abundance, but the inhomogeneous nature of the density field produced by the turbulence means that n and A_V are only poorly correlated. There is a large scatter in A_V, and hence CO abundance, for gas with any particular density, and similarly a large scatter in density and CO abundance for gas with any particular visual extinction. This will have important consequences for the interpretation of the CO emission observed from real molecular clouds. Finally, we also examine the temperature structure of the simulated gas. We show that the molecular gas is not isothermal. Most of it has a temperature in the range of 10--20 K, but there is also a significant fraction of warmer gas, located in low-extinction regions where photoelectric heating remains effective.Comment: 37 pages, 15 figures; minor revisions, matches version accepted by MNRA

Report on SHAFE policies, strategies and funding

The objective of Working Group (WG) 4 of the COST Action NET4Age-Friendly is to examine existing policies, advocacy, and funding opportunities and to build up relations with policy makers and funding organisations. Also, to synthesize and improve existing knowledge and models to develop from effective business and evaluation models, as well as to guarantee quality and education, proper dissemination and ensure the future of the Action. The Working Group further aims to enable capacity building to improve interdisciplinary participation, to promote knowledge exchange and to foster a cross-European interdisciplinary research capacity, to improve cooperation and co-creation with cross-sectors stakeholders and to introduce and educate students SHAFE implementation and sustainability (CB01, CB03, CB04, CB05). To enable the achievement of the objectives of Working Group 4, the Leader of the Working Group, the Chair and Vice-Chair, in close cooperation with the Science Communication Coordinator, developed a template (see annex 1) to map the current state of SHAFE policies, funding opportunities and networking in the COST member countries of the Action. On invitation, the Working Group lead received contributions from 37 countries, in a total of 85 Action members. The contributions provide an overview of the diversity of SHAFE policies and opportunities in Europe and beyond. These were not edited or revised and are a result of the main areas of expertise and knowledge of the contributors; thus, gaps in areas or content are possible and these shall be further explored in the following works and reports of this WG. But this preliminary mapping is of huge importance to proceed with the WG activities. In the following chapters, an introduction on the need of SHAFE policies is presented, followed by a summary of the main approaches to be pursued for the next period of work. The deliverable finishes with the opportunities of capacity building, networking and funding that will be relevant to undertake within the frame of Working Group 4 and the total COST Action. The total of country contributions is presented in the annex of this deliverable

Report on Shafe Policies, Strategies and Funding

The objective of Working Group 4 of the COST Action NET4Age-Friendly is to examine existing policies, advocacy, and funding opportunities and to build up relations with policy makers and funding organisations. Also, to synthesize and improve existing knowledge and models to develop from effective business and evaluation models, as well as to guarantee quality and education, proper dissemination and ensure the future of the Action. The Working Group further aims to enable capacity building to improve interdisciplinary participation, to promote knowledge exchange and to foster a cross-European interdisciplinary research capacity, to improve cooperation and co-creation with cross-sectors stakeholders and to introduce and educate students SHAFE implementation and sustainability. To enable the achievement of the objectives of Working Group 4, the Leader of the Working Group, the Chair and Vice-Chair, in close cooperation with the Science Communication Coordinator, developed a template to map the current state of SHAFE policies, funding opportunities and networking in the COST member countries of the Action. On invitation, the Working Group lead received contributions from 37 countries, in a total of 85 Action members. The contributions provide an overview of the diversity of SHAFE policies and opportunities in Europe and beyond. These were not edited or revised and are a result of the main areas of expertise and knowledge of the contributors; thus, gaps in areas or content are possible and these shall be further explored in the following works and reports of this WG. But this preliminary mapping is of huge importance to proceed with the WG activities. In the following chapters, an introduction on the need of SHAFE policies is presented, followed by a summary of the main approaches to be pursued for the next period of work. The deliverable finishes with the opportunities of capacity building, networking and funding that will be relevant to undertake within the frame of Working Group 4 and the total COST Action. The total of country contributions is presented in the annex of this deliverable