A speed-of-play limit reduces gambling expenditure in an online roulette game: Results of an online experiment

UK online casino games are presently not subject to any limitations on speed-of-play or stakes. One recent policy proposal is to ensure that no online casino game can be played faster than its in-person equivalent. Another policy proposal is to limit the maximum stakes on online casino games to £2, to match the current stake limit on electronic gambling machines. This research experimentally investigated the speed-of-play proposal subject to a £2 stake limit, in an online experiment using incentivized payouts based on £4 endowments and a commercial online roulette game, which was slowed-down in one condition to enforce a speed-of-play limit of one spin every 60 seconds. UK residents, aged 18 years and over and with experience in playing online roulette (N = 1,002), were recruited from an online crowdsourcing panel. In the slowed-down condition there was a credible reduction in the amount gambled. This effect occurred via a credible reduction in the mean number of spins which outweighed any potential increases in bet sizes. Speed-of-play limits may be effective in reducing gambling expenditure for online roulette

A speed-of-play limit reduces gambling expenditure in an online roulette game : results of an online experiment

UK online casino games are presently not subject to any limitations on speed-of-play or stakes. One recent policy proposal is to ensure that no online casino game can be played faster than its in-person equivalent. Another policy proposal is to limit the maximum stakes on online casino games to £2, to match the current stake limit on electronic gambling machines. This research experimentally investigated the speed-of-play proposal subject to a £2 stake limit, in an online experiment using incentivized payouts based on £4 endowments and a commercial online roulette game, which was slowed-down in one condition to enforce a speed-of-play limit of one spin every 60 seconds. UK residents, aged 18 years and over and with experience in playing online roulette (N = 1,002), were recruited from an online crowdsourcing panel. In the slowed-down condition there was a credible reduction in the amount gambled. This effect occurred via a credible reduction in the mean number of spins which outweighed any potential increases in bet sizes. Speed-of-play limits may be effective in reducing gambling expenditure for online roulette. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Country-level cost-effectiveness thresholds : initial estimates and the need for further research

Objectives: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) can guide policymakers in resource allocation decisions. CEA assesses whether the health gains offered by an intervention are large enough relative to any additional costs to warrant adoption. Where there are constraints on the healthcare system’s budget or ability to increase expenditures, additional costs imposed by interventions have an ‘opportunity cost’ in terms of the health foregone as other interventions cannot be provided. Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) are typically used to assess whether an intervention is worthwhile and should reflect health opportunity cost. However, CETs used by some decision makers - such as the World Health Organization (WHO) suggested CETs of 1-3 times gross domestic product per capita (GDP pc) - do not. This study estimates CETs based on opportunity cost for a wide range of countries. Methods: We estimate CETs based upon recent empirical estimates of opportunity cost (from the English NHS), estimates of the relationship between country GDP pc and the value of a statistical life, and a series of explicit assumptions. Results: CETs for Malawi (the lowest income country in the world), Cambodia (borderline low/low-middle income), El Salvador (borderline low-middle/upper-middle) and Kazakhstan (borderline high-middle/high) are estimated to be $3-116 (1-51$44-518 (4-51%), $422-1,967 (11-51$4,485-8,018 (32-59%); respectively. Conclusions: To date opportunity cost-based CETs for low/middle income countries have not been available. Although uncertainty exists in the underlying assumptions, these estimates can provide a useful input to inform resource allocation decisions and suggest that routinely used CETs have been too high

Betting is loving and bettors are predators: a conceptual metaphor approach to online sports betting advertising

The legalisation of online gambling in multiple territories has caused a growth in the exposure of consumers to online sports betting (OSB) advertising. While some efforts have been made to understand the visible structure of betting promotional messages, little is known about the latent components of OSB advertisements. The present study sought to address this issue by examining the metaphorical conceptualisation of OSB advertising. A sample of Spanish and British television OSB advertisements from 2014 to 2016 was analysed (N = 133). Following Lakoff and Johnson’s conceptual metaphor theory, four main structural metaphors that shaped how OSB advertising can be understood were identified: betting as (1) an act of love, (2) a market, (3) a sport, and (4) a natural environment. In general, these metaphors, which were found widely across 29 different betting brands, facilitated the perception of bettors as active players, with an executive role in the sport events bet upon, and greater control over bet outcomes

Eutrophication and acidification: Do they induce changes in the dissolvedorganic matter dynamics in the coastal Mediterranean Sea?

Original research paperTwo mesocosms experiments were conducted in winter 2010 and summer 2011 to examine how increased pCO2and/or nutrient concentrations potentially perturbate dissolved organic matter dynamics in natural microbialassemblages. Thefluorescence signals of protein- and humic-like compounds were used as a proxy for labileand non-labile material, respectively, while the evolution of bacterial populations, chlorophylla(Chla) anddissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were used as a proxy for biological activity. For both seasons,the presence of elevated pCO2did not cause any significant change in the DOC dynamics (p-valueb0.05). Theconditions that showed the greatest changes in prokaryote abundances and Chlacontent were those amendedwith nutrients, regardless of the change in pH. The temporal evolution offluorophores and optical indices re-vealed that the degree of humification of the organic molecules and their molecular weight changed significantlyin the nutrient-amended treatment. The generation of protein-like compounds was paired to increases in theprokaryote abundance, being higher in the nutrient-amended tanks than in the control. Different patterns inthe magnitude and direction of the generation of humic-like molecules suggested that these changes dependedon initial microbial populations and the availability of extra nutrient inputs. Based on our results, it is expected that in the future projected coastal scenarios the eutrophication processes will favor the transformations of labile and recalcitrant carbon regardless of changes in pCO2.MINECO, European Union, Generalitat de Catalunya, CSICVersión del editor3,25

Creative destruction in science

Drawing on the concept of a gale of creative destruction in a capitalistic economy, we argue that initiatives to assess the robustness of findings in the organizational literature should aim to simultaneously test competing ideas operating in the same theoretical space. In other words, replication efforts should seek not just to support or question the original findings, but also to replace them with revised, stronger theories with greater explanatory power. Achieving this will typically require adding new measures, conditions, and subject populations to research designs, in order to carry out conceptual tests of multiple theories in addition to directly replicating the original findings. To illustrate the value of the creative destruction approach for theory pruning in organizational scholarship, we describe recent replication initiatives re-examining culture and work morality, working parents\u2019 reasoning about day care options, and gender discrimination in hiring decisions. Significance statement It is becoming increasingly clear that many, if not most, published research findings across scientific fields are not readily replicable when the same method is repeated. Although extremely valuable, failed replications risk leaving a theoretical void\u2014 reducing confidence the original theoretical prediction is true, but not replacing it with positive evidence in favor of an alternative theory. We introduce the creative destruction approach to replication, which combines theory pruning methods from the field of management with emerging best practices from the open science movement, with the aim of making replications as generative as possible. In effect, we advocate for a Replication 2.0 movement in which the goal shifts from checking on the reliability of past findings to actively engaging in competitive theory testing and theory building. Scientific transparency statement The materials, code, and data for this article are posted publicly on the Open Science Framework, with links provided in the article

Genomic investigations of unexplained acute hepatitis in children

Since its first identification in Scotland, over 1,000 cases of unexplained paediatric hepatitis in children have been reported worldwide, including 278 cases in the UK1. Here we report an investigation of 38 cases, 66 age-matched immunocompetent controls and 21 immunocompromised comparator participants, using a combination of genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and immunohistochemical methods. We detected high levels of adeno-associated virus 2 (AAV2) DNA in the liver, blood, plasma or stool from 27 of 28 cases. We found low levels of adenovirus (HAdV) and human herpesvirus 6B (HHV-6B) in 23 of 31 and 16 of 23, respectively, of the cases tested. By contrast, AAV2 was infrequently detected and at low titre in the blood or the liver from control children with HAdV, even when profoundly immunosuppressed. AAV2, HAdV and HHV-6 phylogeny excluded the emergence of novel strains in cases. Histological analyses of explanted livers showed enrichment for T cells and B lineage cells. Proteomic comparison of liver tissue from cases and healthy controls identified increased expression of HLA class 2, immunoglobulin variable regions and complement proteins. HAdV and AAV2 proteins were not detected in the livers. Instead, we identified AAV2 DNA complexes reflecting both HAdV-mediated and HHV-6B-mediated replication. We hypothesize that high levels of abnormal AAV2 replication products aided by HAdV and, in severe cases, HHV-6B may have triggered immune-mediated hepatic disease in genetically and immunologically predisposed children

Impact of infection on proteome-wide glycosylation revealed by distinct signatures for bacterial and viral pathogens

Mechanisms of infection and pathogenesis have predominantly been studied based on differential gene or protein expression. Less is known about posttranslational modifications, which are essential for protein functional diversity. We applied an innovative glycoproteomics method to study the systemic proteome-wide glycosylation in response to infection. The protein site-specific glycosylation was characterized in plasma derived from well-defined controls and patients. We found 3862 unique features, of which we identified 463 distinct intact glycopeptides, that could be mapped to more than 30 different proteins. Statistical analyses were used to derive a glycopeptide signature that enabled significant differentiation between patients with a bacterial or viral infection. Furthermore, supported by a machine learning algorithm, we demonstrated the ability to identify the causative pathogens based on the distinctive host blood plasma glycopeptide signatures. These results illustrate that glycoproteomics holds enormous potential as an innovative approach to improve the interpretation of relevant biological changes in response to infection

Relationship between molecular pathogen detection and clinical disease in febrile children across Europe: a multicentre, prospective observational study

BackgroundThe PERFORM study aimed to understand causes of febrile childhood illness by comparing molecular pathogen detection with current clinical practice.MethodsFebrile children and controls were recruited on presentation to hospital in 9 European countries 2016-2020. Each child was assigned a standardized diagnostic category based on retrospective review of local clinical and microbiological data. Subsequently, centralised molecular tests (CMTs) for 19 respiratory and 27 blood pathogens were performed.FindingsOf 4611 febrile children, 643 (14%) were classified as definite bacterial infection (DB), 491 (11%) as definite viral infection (DV), and 3477 (75%) had uncertain aetiology. 1061 controls without infection were recruited. CMTs detected blood bacteria more frequently in DB than DV cases for N. meningitidis (OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.92-5.99), S. pneumoniae (OR: 3.89, 95% CI: 2.07-7.59), Group A streptococcus (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.13-6.09) and E. coli (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02-6.71). Respiratory viruses were more common in febrile children than controls, but only influenza A (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11-0.46), influenza B (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.37) and RSV (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.36) were less common in DB than DV cases. Of 16 blood viruses, enterovirus (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.72) and EBV (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.90) were detected less often in DB than DV cases. Combined local diagnostics and CMTs respectively detected blood viruses and respiratory viruses in 360 (56%) and 161 (25%) of DB cases, and virus detection ruled-out bacterial infection poorly, with predictive values of 0.64 and 0.68 respectively.InterpretationMost febrile children cannot be conclusively defined as having bacterial or viral infection when molecular tests supplement conventional approaches. Viruses are detected in most patients with bacterial infections, and the clinical value of individual pathogen detection in determining treatment is low. New approaches are needed to help determine which febrile children require antibiotics.FundingEU Horizon 2020 grant 668303