Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications

Based on Nationally Determined Contributions concurrent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5, the IPCC predicts global warming of 2.1–3.5 ∘C (very likely range 10–90th percentile) by 2100 CE. However, global average temperature is a poor indicator of regional warming and global climate models (GCMs) require validation with instrumental or proxy data from geological archives to assess their ability to simulate regional ocean and atmospheric circulation, and thus, to evaluate their performance for regional climate projections. The south-west Pacific is a region that performs poorly when GCMs are evaluated against instrumental observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) was developed from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) to better understand south-west Pacific response to global change, by including a nested ocean grid in the south-west Pacific with 80 % greater horizontal resolution than the global-scale host.Here, we reconstruct regional south-west Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3–3.0 Ma), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 ∘C to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of ∼350–400 ppm, in order to assess the warming distribution in the south-west Pacific. This study presents proxy SSTs from seven deep sea sediment cores distributed across the south-west Pacific. Our reconstructed SSTs are derived from molecular biomarkers preserved in the sediment – alkenones (i.e. U index) and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (i.e. TEX86 index) – and are compared with SSTs reconstructed from the Last Interglacial (125 ka), Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) outputs and transient climate model projections (NZESM and UKESM) of low- to high-range SSPs for 2090–2099 CE.Mean interglacial equilibrium SSTs during the mPWP for the south-west Pacific sites were on average 4.2 ∘C (1.8–6.1 ∘C likely range) above pre-industrial temperatures and show good agreement with model outputs from NZESM and UKESM under mid-range SSP 2–4.6 conditions. These results highlight that not only is the mPWP an appropriate analogue when considering future temperature change in the centuries to come, but they also demonstrate that the south-west Pacific region will experience warming that exceeds that of the global mean if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm

Pliocene deglacial event timelines and the biogeochemical response offshore Wilkes Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica

Significantly reduced ice coverage in Greenland and West Antarctica during the warmer-than-present Pliocene could account for ∼10m of global mean sea level rise. Any sea level increase beyond this would require contributions from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). Previous studies have presented low-resolution geochemical evidence from the geological record, suggesting repeated ice advance and retreat in low-lying areas of the EAIS such as the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. However, the rates and mechanisms of retreat events are less well constrained. Here we present orbitally-resolved marine detrital sediment provenance data, paired with ice-rafted debris and productivity proxies, during three time intervals from the middle to late Pliocene at IODP Site U1361A, offshore of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Our new data reveal that Pliocene shifts in sediment provenance were paralleled by increases in marine productivity, while the onset of such changes was marked by peaks in ice-rafted debris mass accumulation rates. The coincidence of sediment provenance and marine productivity change argues against a switch in sediment delivery between ice streams, and instead suggests that deglacial warming triggered increased rates of iceberg calving, followed by inland retreat of the ice margin. Timescales from the onset of deglaciation to an inland retreated ice margin within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin are on the order of several thousand years. This geological evidence corroborates retreat rates determined from ice sheet modeling, and a contribution of ∼3 to 4m of equivalent sea level rise from one of the most vulnerable areas of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during interglacial intervals throughout the middle to late Pliocene.Provenance analysis was supported by a Kristian Gerhard Jeb-sen PhD Scholarship and NERC UK IODP grants (NE/H025162/1 and NE/H014144/1). Biogenic silica data was supported by a Royal So-ciety of New Zealand Marsden FastStart grant (#UOO-1315) and a University of Otago PhD Scholarship. Support for sedimentol-ogyanalysis was provided by the Royal Society of New ZealandRutherford Discovery Fellowship (RDF-13-VUW-003). XRF work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Innovation Grant CTM2014-60451-C2-1-P co-financed by the European Regional De-velopment Fund (FEDER). Samples were provided by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program

Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to +2 °C (SWAIS 2C)

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) presently holds enough ice to raise global sea level by 4.3 m if completely melted. The unknown response of the WAIS to future warming remains a significant challenge for numerical models in quantifying predictions of future sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of human-induced climate change. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Warming of 2 ∘C (SWAIS 2C) Project aims to understand past and current drivers and thresholds of WAIS dynamics to improve projections of the rate and size of ice sheet changes under a range of elevated greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere as well as the associated average global temperature scenarios to and beyond the +2 ∘C target of the Paris Climate Agreement. Despite efforts through previous land and ship-based drilling on and along the Antarctic margin, unequivocal evidence of major WAIS retreat or collapse and its causes has remained elusive. To evaluate and plan for the interdisciplinary scientific opportunities and engineering challenges that an International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project along the Siple coast near the grounding zone of the WAIS could offer (Fig. 1), researchers, engineers, and logistics providers representing 10 countries held a virtual workshop in October 2020. This international partnership comprised of geologists, glaciologists, oceanographers, geophysicists, microbiologists, climate and ice sheet modelers, and engineers outlined specific research objectives and logistical challenges associated with the recovery of Neogene and Quaternary geological records from the West Antarctic interior adjacent to the Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise. New geophysical surveys at these locations have identified drilling targets in which new drilling technologies will allow for the recovery of up to 200 m of sediments beneath the ice sheet. Sub-ice-shelf records have so far proven difficult to obtain but are critical to better constrain marine ice sheet sensitivity to past and future increases in global mean surface temperature up to 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, the scientific and technological advances developed through this program will enable us to test whether WAIS collapsed during past intervals of warmth and determine its sensitivity to a +2 ∘C global warming threshold (UNFCCC, 2015)

Scientific access into Mercer Subglacial Lake: scientific objectives, drilling operations and initial observations

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Priscu, J. C., Kalin, J., Winans, J., Campbell, T., Siegfried, M. R., Skidmore, M., Dore, J. E., Leventer, A., Harwood, D. M., Duling, D., Zook, R., Burnett, J., Gibson, D., Krula, E., Mironov, A., McManis, J., Roberts, G., Rosenheim, B. E., Christner, B. C., Kasic, K., Fricker, H. A., Lyons, W. B., Barker, J., Bowling, M., Collins, B., Davis, C., Gagnon, A., Gardner, C., Gustafson, C., Kim, O-S., Li, W., Michaud, A., Patterson, M. O., Tranter, M., Ryan Venturelli, R., Trista Vick-Majors, T., & Elsworth, C. Scientific access into Mercer Subglacial Lake: scientific objectives, drilling operations and initial observations. Annals of Glaciology, 62(85–86), (2021): 340–352, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2021.10.The Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA) Project accessed Mercer Subglacial Lake using environmentally clean hot-water drilling to examine interactions among ice, water, sediment, rock, microbes and carbon reservoirs within the lake water column and underlying sediments. A ~0.4 m diameter borehole was melted through 1087 m of ice and maintained over ~10 days, allowing observation of ice properties and collection of water and sediment with various tools. Over this period, SALSA collected: 60 L of lake water and 10 L of deep borehole water; microbes >0.2 μm in diameter from in situ filtration of ~100 L of lake water; 10 multicores 0.32–0.49 m long; 1.0 and 1.76 m long gravity cores; three conductivity–temperature–depth profiles of borehole and lake water; five discrete depth current meter measurements in the lake and images of ice, the lake water–ice interface and lake sediments. Temperature and conductivity data showed the hydrodynamic character of water mixing between the borehole and lake after entry. Models simulating melting of the ~6 m thick basal accreted ice layer imply that debris fall-out through the ~15 m water column to the lake sediments from borehole melting had little effect on the stratigraphy of surficial sediment cores.This material is based upon work supported by the US National Science Foundation, Section for Antarctic Sciences, Antarctic Integrated System Science program as part of the interdisciplinary (Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA): Integrated study of carbon cycling in hydrologically-active subglacial environments) project (NSF-OPP 1543537, 1543396, 1543405, 1543453 and 1543441). Ok-Sun Kim was funded by the Korean Polar Research Institute. We are particularly thankful to the SALSA traverse personnel for crucial technical and logistical support. The United States Antarctic Program enabled our fieldwork; the New York Air National Guard and Kenn Borek Air provided air support; UNAVCO provided geodetic instrument support. Hot water drilling activities, including repair and upgrade modifications of the WISSARD hot water drill system, for the SALSA project were supported by a subaward from the Ice Drilling Program of Dartmouth College (NSF-PLR 1327315) to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. J. Lawrence assisted with manuscript preparation. Finally, we are grateful to C. Dean, the SALSA Project Manager, and R. Ricards, SALSA Project Coordinator at McMurdo Station, for their organizational skills, and B. Huber of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory for providing the SBE39 PT sensors and the Nortek Aquadopp current meter and assisting with interpretation of the data. B. Huber also provided helpful input on programing and calibrating the SBE19PlusV2 6112 CTD

Taxonomy based on science is necessary for global conservation

Peer reviewe

Genome-wide Analyses Identify KIF5A as a Novel ALS Gene

To identify novel genes associated with ALS, we undertook two lines of investigation. We carried out a genome-wide association study comparing 20,806 ALS cases and 59,804 controls. Independently, we performed a rare variant burden analysis comparing 1,138 index familial ALS cases and 19,494 controls. Through both approaches, we identified kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) as a novel gene associated with ALS. Interestingly, mutations predominantly in the N-terminal motor domain of KIF5A are causative for two neurodegenerative diseases: hereditary spastic paraplegia (SPG10) and Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 2 (CMT2). In contrast, ALS-associated mutations are primarily located at the C-terminal cargo-binding tail domain and patients harboring loss-of-function mutations displayed an extended survival relative to typical ALS cases. Taken together, these results broaden the phenotype spectrum resulting from mutations in KIF5A and strengthen the role of cytoskeletal defects in the pathogenesis of ALS.Peer reviewe

Potentially bioavailable iron produced through benthic cycling in glaciated Arctic fjords of Svalbard

The Arctic has the highest warming rates on Earth. Glaciated fjord ecosystems, which are hotspots of carbon cycling and burial, are extremely sensitive to this warming. Glaciers are important for the transport of iron from land to sea and supply this essential nutrient to phytoplankton in high-latitude marine ecosystems. However, up to 95% of the glacially-sourced iron settles to sediments close to the glacial source. Our data show that while 0.6–12% of the total glacially-sourced iron is potentially bioavailable, biogeochemical cycling in Arctic fjord sediments converts the glacially-derived iron into more labile phases, generating up to a 9-fold increase in the amount of potentially bioavailable iron. Arctic fjord sediments are thus an important source of potentially bioavailable iron. However, our data suggests that as glaciers retreat onto land the flux of iron to the sediment-water interface may be reduced. Glacial retreat therefore likely impacts iron cycling in coastal marine ecosystems

A Pliocene relative sea level record from New Zealand calculated from grain size

Earth is heading towards a climate that was last experienced more than 3 Myr during the “mid-Pliocene warm period”1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) concentrations were ~400 ppm, global sea level oscillated in response to orbital forcing2,3 and peak global mean sea level (GMSL) may have reached ~20 m above present4,5. For sea-level rise of this magnitude extensive retreat or collapse of the Greenland, West Antarctic and marine based sectors of the East Antarctic ice sheets are required. Yet the relative amplitude of sea-level variations within glacial-interglacial cycles remains poorly-constrained. Here, we show sea-level varied on average by 13 ± 5 m over glacial-interglacial cycles during the mid- to late Pliocene, ~3.3 - 2.5 Myrs. We calibrated a theoretical relationship between modern sediment transport by waves and water depth and then applied the technique to Pliocene grain size in shallow-marine sediments from Whanganui Basin, New Zealand, thereby estimating past sea level variation. The resulting PlioSeaNZ record is independent of the deep ocean oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for global ice volume3, and in phase with ~20 kyr duration cycles of insolation over Antarctica, paced by eccentricity-modulated orbital precession between 3.3 and 2.7 Ma6. Thereafter, sea-level fluctuations are paced by ~41 kyr cycles in Earth's axial tilt as ice sheets stabilise on Antarctica and intensify in the northern hemisphere3,6. Sensu stricto, we provide the amplitude of relative sea-level (RSL) change, rather than absolute GMSL change. However, glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) simulations of RSL change, show that the PlioSeaNZ record approximates eustatic sea level (ESL), defined here as GMSL unregistered to the centre of the Earth. Nonetheless, under conservative assumptions, our estimates limit maximum Pliocene sea level to less than +25 m and provide new constraints on polar ice-volume variability under climate conditions Earth is on track to experience this century

Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to +2 °C (SWAIS 2C)

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) presently holds enough ice to raise global sea level by 4.3 m if completely melted. The unknown response of the WAIS to future warming remains a significant challenge for numerical models in quantifying predictions of future sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of human-induced climate change. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Warming of 2 ∘C (SWAIS 2C) Project aims to understand past and current drivers and thresholds of WAIS dynamics to improve projections of the rate and size of ice sheet changes under a range of elevated greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere as well as the associated average global temperature scenarios to and beyond the +2 ∘C target of the Paris Climate Agreement. Despite efforts through previous land and ship-based drilling on and along the Antarctic margin, unequivocal evidence of major WAIS retreat or collapse and its causes has remained elusive. To evaluate and plan for the interdisciplinary scientific opportunities and engineering challenges that an International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project along the Siple coast near the grounding zone of the WAIS could offer (Fig. 1), researchers, engineers, and logistics providers representing 10 countries held a virtual workshop in October 2020. This international partnership comprised of geologists, glaciologists, oceanographers, geophysicists, microbiologists, climate and ice sheet modelers, and engineers outlined specific research objectives and logistical challenges associated with the recovery of Neogene and Quaternary geological records from the West Antarctic interior adjacent to the Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise. New geophysical surveys at these locations have identified drilling targets in which new drilling technologies will allow for the recovery of up to 200 m of sediments beneath the ice sheet. Sub-ice-shelf records have so far proven difficult to obtain but are critical to better constrain marine ice sheet sensitivity to past and future increases in global mean surface temperature up to 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, the scientific and technological advances developed through this program will enable us to test whether WAIS collapsed during past intervals of warmth and determine its sensitivity to a +2 ∘C global warming threshold (UNFCCC, 2015)