Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data

We consider the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of fixed length. We eschew the most natural Markov jump process representation for reasons of computational efficiency, and focus on a stochastic differential equation representation. This is further approximated to give a tractable Gaussian process, that is, the linear noise approximation (LNA). Unless the observation model linking the LNA to data is both linear and Gaussian, the observed data likelihood remains intractable. It is in this setting that we consider two approaches for marginalising over the latent process: a correlated pseudo-marginal method and analytic marginalisation via a Gaussian approximation of the observation model. We compare and contrast these approaches using synthetic data before applying the best performing method to real data consisting of removal incidence of oak processionary moth nests in Richmond Park, London. Our approach further allows comparison between various competing compartment models

Development and Validation of the Microbiology for Health Sciences Concept Inventory

Identifying misconceptions in student learning is a valuable practice for evaluating student learning gains and directing educational interventions. By accurately identifying students’ knowledge and misconceptions about microbiology concepts, instructors can design effective classroom practices centered on student understanding. Following the development of ASM’s Curriculum Guidelines in 2012, we developed a concept inventory, the Microbiology for Health Sciences Concept Inventory (MHSCI), that measures learning gains and identifies student misconceptions in health sciences microbiology classrooms. The 23-question MHSCI was delivered to a wide variety of students at multiple institution types. Psychometric analysis identified that the MHSCI instrument is both discriminatory and reliable in measuring student learning gains. The MHSCI results correlated with course outcomes, showing the value of using the instrument alongside course level assessments to measure student learning. The MHSCI is a reliable and efficient way to measure student learning in microbiology and can be used both as a faculty development tool and an effective student assessment tool

The Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope: Instrument and Data Characteristics

The Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) was flown as part of the Astro observatory on the Space Shuttle Columbia in December 1990 and again on the Space Shuttle Endeavor in March 1995. Ultraviolet (1200-3300 Angstroms) images of a variety of astronomical objects, with a 40 arcmin field of view and a resolution of about 3 arcsec, were recorded on photographic film. The data recorded during the first flight are available to the astronomical community through the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC); the data recorded during the second flight will soon be available as well. This paper discusses in detail the design, operation, data reduction, and calibration of UIT, providing the user of the data with information for understanding and using the data. It also provides guidelines for analyzing other astronomical imagery made with image intensifiers and photographic film.Comment: 44 pages, LaTeX, AAS preprint style and EPSF macros, accepted by PAS

Robotic Wireless Sensor Networks

In this chapter, we present a literature survey of an emerging, cutting-edge, and multi-disciplinary field of research at the intersection of Robotics and Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) which we refer to as Robotic Wireless Sensor Networks (RWSN). We define a RWSN as an autonomous networked multi-robot system that aims to achieve certain sensing goals while meeting and maintaining certain communication performance requirements, through cooperative control, learning and adaptation. While both of the component areas, i.e., Robotics and WSN, are very well-known and well-explored, there exist a whole set of new opportunities and research directions at the intersection of these two fields which are relatively or even completely unexplored. One such example would be the use of a set of robotic routers to set up a temporary communication path between a sender and a receiver that uses the controlled mobility to the advantage of packet routing. We find that there exist only a limited number of articles to be directly categorized as RWSN related works whereas there exist a range of articles in the robotics and the WSN literature that are also relevant to this new field of research. To connect the dots, we first identify the core problems and research trends related to RWSN such as connectivity, localization, routing, and robust flow of information. Next, we classify the existing research on RWSN as well as the relevant state-of-the-arts from robotics and WSN community according to the problems and trends identified in the first step. Lastly, we analyze what is missing in the existing literature, and identify topics that require more research attention in the future

Quantitative Epistasis Analysis and Pathway Inference from Genetic Interaction Data

Inferring regulatory and metabolic network models from quantitative genetic interaction data remains a major challenge in systems biology. Here, we present a novel quantitative model for interpreting epistasis within pathways responding to an external signal. The model provides the basis of an experimental method to determine the architecture of such pathways, and establishes a new set of rules to infer the order of genes within them. The method also allows the extraction of quantitative parameters enabling a new level of information to be added to genetic network models. It is applicable to any system where the impact of combinatorial loss-of-function mutations can be quantified with sufficient accuracy. We test the method by conducting a systematic analysis of a thoroughly characterized eukaryotic gene network, the galactose utilization pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. For this purpose, we quantify the effects of single and double gene deletions on two phenotypic traits, fitness and reporter gene expression. We show that applying our method to fitness traits reveals the order of metabolic enzymes and the effects of accumulating metabolic intermediates. Conversely, the analysis of expression traits reveals the order of transcriptional regulatory genes, secondary regulatory signals and their relative strength. Strikingly, when the analyses of the two traits are combined, the method correctly infers ∼80% of the known relationships without any false positives

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change

Alcator C-Mod: research in support of ITER and steps beyond

This paper presents an overview of recent highlights from research on Alcator C-Mod. Significant progress has been made across all research areas over the last two years, with particular emphasis on divertor physics and power handling, plasma–material interaction studies, edge localized mode-suppressed pedestal dynamics, core transport and turbulence, and RF heating and current drive utilizing ion cyclotron and lower hybrid tools. Specific results of particular relevance to ITER include: inner wall SOL transport studies that have led, together with results from other experiments, to the change of the detailed shape of the inner wall in ITER; runaway electron studies showing that the critical electric field required for runaway generation is much higher than predicted from collisional theory; core tungsten impurity transport studies reveal that tungsten accumulation is naturally avoided in typical C-Mod conditions.United States. Department of Energy (DE-FC02-99ER54512-CMOD)United States. Department of Energy (DE-AC02-09CH11466)United States. Department of Energy (DE-FG02-96ER-54373)United States. Department of Energy (DE-FG02-94ER54235

20 years of research on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak

The object of this review is to summarize the achievements of research on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak [Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994) and Marmar, Fusion Sci. Technol. 51, 261 (2007)] and to place that research in the context of the quest for practical fusion energy. C-Mod is a compact, high-field tokamak, whose unique design and operating parameters have produced a wealth of new and important results since it began operation in 1993, contributing data that extends tests of critical physical models into new parameter ranges and into new regimes. Using only high-power radio frequency (RF) waves for heating and current drive with innovative launching structures, C-Mod operates routinely at reactor level power densities and achieves plasma pressures higher than any other toroidal confinement device. C-Mod spearheaded the development of the vertical-target divertor and has always operated with high-Z metal plasma facing components—approaches subsequently adopted for ITER. C-Mod has made ground-breaking discoveries in divertor physics and plasma-material interactions at reactor-like power and particle fluxes and elucidated the critical role of cross-field transport in divertor operation, edge flows and the tokamak density limit. C-Mod developed the I-mode and the Enhanced Dα H-mode regimes, which have high performance without large edge localized modes and with pedestal transport self-regulated by short-wavelength electromagnetic waves. C-Mod has carried out pioneering studies of intrinsic rotation and demonstrated that self-generated flow shear can be strong enough in some cases to significantly modify transport. C-Mod made the first quantitative link between the pedestal temperature and the H-mode's performance, showing that the observed self-similar temperature profiles were consistent with critical-gradient-length theories and followed up with quantitative tests of nonlinear gyrokinetic models. RF research highlights include direct experimental observation of ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) mode-conversion, ICRF flow drive, demonstration of lower-hybrid current drive at ITER-like densities and fields and, using a set of novel diagnostics, extensive validation of advanced RF codes. Disruption studies on C-Mod provided the first observation of non-axisymmetric halo currents and non-axisymmetric radiation in mitigated disruptions. A summary of important achievements and discoveries are included.United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-99ER54512)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-FG03-94ER-54241)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-AC02-78ET- 51013)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-AC02-09CH11466)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-FG02-95ER54309)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-AC02-05CH11231)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-AC52-07NA27344)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-FG02- 97ER54392)United States. Dept. of Energy (Cooperative Agreement DE-SC00-02060

Subsequent Surgery After Revision Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: Rates and Risk Factors From a Multicenter Cohort

BACKGROUND: While revision anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) can be performed to restore knee stability and improve patient activity levels, outcomes after this surgery are reported to be inferior to those after primary ACLR. Further reoperations after revision ACLR can have an even more profound effect on patient satisfaction and outcomes. However, there is a current lack of information regarding the rate and risk factors for subsequent surgery after revision ACLR. PURPOSE: To report the rate of reoperations, procedures performed, and risk factors for a reoperation 2 years after revision ACLR. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: A total of 1205 patients who underwent revision ACLR were enrolled in the Multicenter ACL Revision Study (MARS) between 2006 and 2011, composing the prospective cohort. Two-year questionnaire follow-up was obtained for 989 patients (82%), while telephone follow-up was obtained for 1112 patients (92%). If a patient reported having undergone subsequent surgery, operative reports detailing the subsequent procedure(s) were obtained and categorized. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for a reoperation. RESULTS: Of the 1112 patients included in the analysis, 122 patients (11%) underwent a total of 172 subsequent procedures on the ipsilateral knee at 2-year follow-up. Of the reoperations, 27% were meniscal procedures (69% meniscectomy, 26% repair), 19% were subsequent revision ACLR, 17% were cartilage procedures (61% chondroplasty, 17% microfracture, 13% mosaicplasty), 11% were hardware removal, and 9% were procedures for arthrofibrosis. Multivariate analysis revealed that patients aged <20 years had twice the odds of patients aged 20 to 29 years to undergo a reoperation. The use of an allograft at the time of revision ACLR (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P = .007) was a significant predictor for reoperations at 2 years, while staged revision (bone grafting of tunnels before revision ACLR) (OR, 1.93; P = .052) did not reach significance. Patients with grade 4 cartilage damage seen during revision ACLR were 78% less likely to undergo subsequent operations within 2 years. Sex, body mass index, smoking history, Marx activity score, technique for femoral tunnel placement, and meniscal tearing or meniscal treatment at the time of revision ACLR showed no significant effect on the reoperation rate. CONCLUSION: There was a significant reoperation rate after revision ACLR at 2 years (11%), with meniscal procedures most commonly involved. Independent risk factors for subsequent surgery on the ipsilateral knee included age <20 years and the use of allograft tissue at the time of revision ACLR