Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.Comment: (22 pages, 7 figures; final version accepted by Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Permeability Estimates of Self-Affine Fracture Faults Based on Generalization of the Bottle Neck Concept

We propose a method for calculating the effective permeability of two-dimensional self-affine permeability fields based on generalizing the one-dimensional concept of a bottleneck. We test the method on fracture faults where the local permeability field is given by the cube of the aperture field. The method remains accurate even when there is substantial mechanical overlap between the two fracture surfaces. The computational efficiency of the method is comparable to calculating a simple average and is more than two orders of magnitude faster than solving the Reynolds equations using a finite-difference scheme

Comparative evaluation of a novel, moderately hypofractionated radiation protocol in 56 dogs with symptomatic intracranial neoplasia

BACKGROUND: Use of strongly hypofractionated radiation treatments in dogs with intracranial neoplasia did not improve outcomes and yielded increased rates of toxicosis. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate safety and efficacy of a new, moderately hypofractionated radiation protocol of 10 × 4 Gy compared to a standard protocol. ANIMALS: Convenience sample of 56 client-owned dogs with primary symptomatic brain tumors. METHODS: Retrospective observational study. Twenty-six dogs were assigned to the control standard protocol of 20 × 2.5 Gy (group A) and 30 dogs to the new protocol of 10 × 4 Gy (group B), assigned on owners' informed consent. Statistical analysis was conducted under the "as treated" regime, using Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analysis. Treatment was delivered with technically advanced image-guided radiation therapy. The 2 treatment groups were compared in terms of outcome and signs of toxicosis. RESULTS: Overall progression-free interval (PFI) and overall survival (OS) time were favorable, with 663 (95%CI: 497;828) and 637 (95%CI: 403;870) days, respectively. We found no significant difference between the two groups: PFI for dogs in group A vs B was 608 (95%CI: 437;779) days and mean (median not reached) 863 (95%CI: 644;1083) days, respectively (P = .89), and OS for dogs in group A vs B 610 (95%CI: 404;816) and mean (median not reached) 796 (95%CI: 586;1007) days (P = .83). CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: In conclusion, 10 × 4 Gy is a safe and efficient protocol for treatment of primary intracranial neoplasia and future dose escalation can be considered

Scientific Opinion on the re-evaluation of Quinoline Yellow (E 104) as a food additive:Question No EFSA-Q-2008-223

The Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food provides a scientific opinion re-evaluating the safety of Quinoline Yellow (E 104). Quinoline Yellow has been previously evaluated by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) in 1975, 1978 and 1984, and the EU Scientific Committee for Food (SCF) in 1984. Both committees established an Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 0-10 mg/kg body weight (bw). Studies not evaluated by JECFA and the SCF included a chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity study with a reproductive toxicity phase in rats and a study on behaviour in children by McCann et al. from 2007. The latter study concluded that exposure to a mixture of colours including Quinoline Yellow resulted in increased hyperactivity in 8- to 9-years old children. The Panel concurs with the conclusion from a previous EFSA opinion on the McCann et al. study that the findings of the study cannot be used as a basis for altering the ADI. The Panel notes that Quinoline Yellow was negative in in vitro genotoxicity as well as in long term carcinogenicity studies. The Panel concludes that the currently available database on semi-chronic, reproductive, developmental and long-term toxicity of Quinoline Yellow, including a study in rats not apparently taken into consideration by JECFA or the SCF, provides a rationale for re-definition of the ADI. Using the NOAEL of 50 mg/kg bw/day provided by the chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity study with a reproductive toxicity phase carried out in rats and applying an uncertainty factor of 100 to this NOAEL, the Panel establishes an ADI of 0.5 mg/kg bw/day. The Panel notes that at the maximum levels of use of Quinoline Yellow, refined intake estimates are generally well over the ADI of 0.5 mg/kg bw/day

Initial data for stationary space-times near space-like infinity

We study Cauchy initial data for asymptotically flat, stationary vacuum space-times near space-like infinity. The fall-off behavior of the intrinsic metric and the extrinsic curvature is characterized. We prove that they have an analytic expansion in powers of a radial coordinate. The coefficients of the expansion are analytic functions of the angles. This result allow us to fill a gap in the proof found in the literature of the statement that all asymptotically flat, vacuum stationary space-times admit an analytic compactification at null infinity. Stationary initial data are physical important and highly non-trivial examples of a large class of data with similar regularity properties at space-like infinity, namely, initial data for which the metric and the extrinsic curvature have asymptotic expansion in terms of powers of a radial coordinate. We isolate the property of the stationary data which is responsible for this kind of expansion.Comment: LaTeX 2e, no figures, 12 page

Export efficiency of black carbon aerosol in continental outflow: Global implications

We use aircraft observations of Asian outflow from the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March–April 2001 to estimate the export efficiency of black carbon (BC) aerosol during lifting to the free troposphere, as limited by scavenging from the wet processes (warm conveyor belts and convection) associated with this lifting. Our estimate is based on the enhancement ratio of BC relative to CO in Asian outflow observed at different altitudes and is normalized to the enhancement ratio observed in boundary layer outflow (0–1 km). We similarly estimate export efficiencies of sulfur oxides (SO x = SO2(g) + fine SO4 2−) and total inorganic nitrate (HNO3 T = HNO3(g) + fine NO3 −) for comparison to BC. Normalized export efficiencies for BC are 0.63–0.74 at 2–4 km altitude and 0.27–0.38 at 4–6 km. Values at 2–4 km altitude are higher than for SO x (0.48–0.66) and HNO3 T (0.29–0.62), implying that BC is scavenged in wet updrafts but not as efficiently as sulfate or nitrate. Simulation of the TRACE-P period with a global three-dimensional model (GEOS-CHEM) indicates that a model timescale of 1 ± 1 days for conversion of fresh hydrophobic to hydrophilic BC provides a successful fit to the export efficiencies observed in TRACE-P. The resulting mean atmospheric lifetime of BC is 5.8 ± 1.8 days, the global burden is 0.11 ± 0.03 Tg C, and the decrease in Arctic snow albedo due to BC deposition is 3.1 ± 2.5%.Earth and Planetary Science

Effects of adaptation, chance, and history on the evolution of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum under selection of increased temperature and acidification

The roles of adaptation, chance, and history on evolution of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum Halim, under selective conditions simulating global change, have been addressed. Two toxic strains (AL1V and AL2V), previously acclimated for two years at pH 8.0 and 20◦C, were transferred to selective conditions: pH 7.5 to simulate acidification and 25◦C. Cultures under selective conditions were propagated until growth rate and toxin cell quota achieved an invariantmean value at 720 days (ca. 250 and ca. 180 generations for strains AL1V and AL2V, respectively). Historical contingencies strongly constrained the evolution of growth rate and toxin cell quota, but the forces involved in the evolution were not the same for both traits. Growth rate was 1.5–1.6 times higher than the one measured in ancestral conditions. Genetic adaptation explained two-thirds of total adaptation while one-third was a consequence of physiological adaptation. On the other hand, the evolution of toxin cell quota showed a pattern attributable to neutralmutations because the final varianceswere significantly higher than thosemeasured at the start of the experiment. It has been hypothesized that harmful algal blooms will increase under the future scenario of global change. Although this study might be considered an oversimplification of the reality, it can be hypothesized that toxic blooms will increase but no predictions can be advanced about toxicity.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de excelencia internacional. Andalucia Tech. Financially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation by the grant CGL2008-00652/BOS, and Junta de Andalucía Research Group RNM-115

A review of farm-scale nutrient budgets for organic farms as a tool for management of soil fertility

On organic farms, where the importation of materials to build/maintain soil fertility is restricted, it is important that a balance between inputs and outputs of nutrients is achieved to ensure both short-term productivity and long-term sustainability. This paper considers different approaches to nutrient budgeting on organic farms and evaluates the sources of bias in the measurements and/or estimates of the nutrient inputs and outputs. The paper collates 88 nutrient budgets compiled at the farm scale in 9 temperate countries. All the nitrogen (N) budgets showed an N surplus (average 83.2 kg N ha-1 year-1). The efficiency of N use, defined as outputs/inputs, was highest (0.9) and lowest (0.2) in arable and beef systems respectively. The phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) budgets showed both surpluses and deficits (average 3.6 kg P ha-1 year-1, 14.2 kg K ha-1 year-1) with horticultural systems showing large surpluses resulting from purchased manure. The estimation of N fixation and quantities of nutrients in purchased manures may introduce significant errors in nutrient budgets. Overall, the data illustrate the diversity of management systems in place on organic farms, and suggest that used together with soil analysis, nutrient budgets are a useful tool for improving the long-term sustainability of organic systems