Is it Possible to Define Subjective Probabilities in Purely Behavioral Terms? A Comment on Epstein-Zhang (2001)

It is shown that well-behaved preference orderings may exhibit the Ellsberg paradox on the set of unambiguous events as defined by Epstein and Zhang (2001). Moreover, since such counterexamples can be constructed even when the set of unambiguous events is rich, EZ’s main representation result does not clarify satisfactorily when the proposed definition delivers probabilistic sophistication on unambiguous events. We conclude by conjecturing that these problems indicate the existence of inherent limitations of a strictly behavioral approach to identifying probabilistic beliefs in the presence of ambiguity, rather than deficiencies in EZ’s implementation of that approach.

Decision-Making in the Context of Imprecise Probabilistic Beliefs

Coherent imprecise probabilistic beliefs are modelled as incomplete comparative likelihood relations admitting a multiple-prior representation. Under a structural assumption of Equidivisibility, we provide an axiomatization of such relations and show uniqueness of the representation. In the second part of the paper, we formulate a behaviorally general axiom relating preferences and probabilistic beliefs which implies that preferences over unambiguous acts are probabilistically sophisticated and which entails representability of preferences over Savage acts in an Anscombe-Aumann-style framework. The motivation for an explicit and separate axiomatization of beliefs for the study of decision-making under ambiguity is discussed in some detail.

Building in web application security at the requirements stage : a tool for visualizing and evaluating security trade-offs : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Information Science in Information Systems at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

One dimension of Internet security is web application security. The purpose of this Design-science study was to design, build and evaluate a computer-based tool to support security vulnerability and risk assessment in the early stages of web application design. The tool facilitates risk assessment by managers and helps developers to model security requirements using an interactive tree diagram. The tool calculates residual risk for each component of a web application and for the application overall so developers are provided with better information for making decisions about which countermeasures to implement given limited resources tor doing so. The tool supports taking a proactive approach to building in web application security at the requirements stage as opposed to the more common reactive approach of putting countermeasures in place after an attack and loss have been incurred. The primary contribution of the proposed tool is its ability to make known security-related information (e.g. known vulnerabilities, attacks and countermeasures) more accessible to developers who are not security experts and to translate lack of security measures into an understandable measure of relative residual risk. The latter is useful for managers who need to prioritize security spending. Keywords: web application security, security requirements modelling, attack trees, threat trees, risk assessment

MONOTONICITY IMPLIES STRATEGY-PROOFNESS FOR CORRESPONDENCES

We show that Maskin monotone social choice correspondences on sufficiently rich domains satisfy a generalized strategy-proofness property, thus generalizing Muller and Satterthwaite''s (1977) theorem to correspondences. From the point of view of Nash implementation theory, the result yields a partial characterization of the restrictions entailed by Nash implementability. Alternatively, the result can be viewed as a possibility theorem on the dominant-strategy-implementability of monotone SCCs via set-valued mechanisms for agents who are completely ignorant about the finally selected outcome. It is shown by examples that stronger strategy-proofness properties fail easily.

INCENTIVE-COMPATIBLE AND EFFICIENT RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN LARGE ECONOMIES: AN EXACT AND LOCAL APPROACH

The main result of this paper characterizes possibly non-symmetric strategy-proof and efficienct choice functions as Perfectly Competitive. Efficiency is defined as impossibility of improvement by reallocation of commodity among finite sets of agents, and largeness of the economy is captured by a weak aggregation-condition called ""local separability."" Individual rationality constraints with respect to an assignment of endowments imply that the resulting allocations must be Walrasian relative to the assignment of endowments. The exact, local approach combined with a normality assumption on the domain of preferences allows the proofs to remain elementary throughout.

INTRODUCTION TO THE SEMANTICS OF BELIEF AND COMMON BELIEF

We provide an introduction to interactive belief systems from a qualitative and semantic point of view. Properties of belief hierarchies are formulated locally. Among the properties considered are ""Common belief in no error"" (which has been shown to have important game theoretic applications), ""Negative introspection of common belief"" and ""Truth about common belief."" The relationship between these properties is studied.

EPISTEMIC FOUNDATIONS OF SOLUTION CONCEPTS IN GAME THEORY: AN INTRODUCTION

We give an introduction to the literature on the epistemic foundations of solution concepts in game theory. Only normal-form games are considered. The solution concepts analyzed are rationalizability, strong rationalizability, correlated equilibrium and Nash equilibrium. The analysis is carried out locally in terms of properties of the belief hierarchies. Several examples are used throughout to illustrate definitions and concepts.

A THEORY OF RATIONAL CHOICE UNDER COMPLETE IGNORANCE

This paper contributes to a theory of rational choice under uncertainty for decision-makers whose preferences are exhaustively described by partial orders representing ""limited information."" Specifically, we consider the limiting case of ""Complete Ignorance"" decision problems characterized by maximally incomplete preferences and important primarily as reduced forms of general decision problems under uncertainty. ""Rationality"" is conceptualized in terms of a ""Principle of Preference-Basedness,"" according to which rational choice should be isomorphic to asserted preference. The main result characterizes axiomatically a new choice-rule called ""Simultaneous Expected Utility Maximization"" which in particular satisfies a choice-functional independence and a context-dependent choice-consistency condition; it can be interpreted as the fair agreement in a bargaining game (Kalai-Smorodinsky solution) whose players correspond to the different possible states (respectively extermal priors in the general case).

AGREEING TO DISAGREE: A SURVEY

Aumann (1976) put forward a formal definition of common knowledge and used it to prove that two ""like minded"" individuals cannot ""agree to disagree"" in the following sense. If they start from a common prior and update the probability of an event E (using Bayes'' rule) on the basis of private information, then it cannot be common knowledge between them that individual 1 assigns probability p to E and individual 2 assigns probability q to E with p ¹ q. In other words, if their posteriors of event E are common knowledge then they must coincide. Aumann''s Agreement Theorem has given rise to a large literature which we review in this paper. The results are classified according to whether they are probabilistic (Bayesian) or qualitative. Particular attention is paid to the issue of how to interpret the notion of Harsanyi consistency as a (local) property of belief hierarchies.