Intensive and Extensive Margin Labor Supply Responses to Kinks in Disability Insurance Programs

While kinks are prevalent in tax and transfer systems, the fiscal revenue and behavioral responses are not fully understood. In disability insurance (DI) programs, for instance, kinks help balance the moral hazard effects from the induced entry with the provision of work incentives for recipients who regain their ability to work. Using quasi-random variation in kink points in the benefit schedule for Norwegian DI recipients, I identify intensive and extensive margin earnings responses to the implicit tax on earnings as DI benefits are phased out above the kink. To identify the intensive margin responses, I implement a non-parametric bunching design that does not require functional form assumptions or deciding an excluded region around the kink. Responses correspond to an earnings elasticity with respect to the implicit net-of-tax rate of about 0.18. Using a regression discontinuity design, I further show that the kink in the benefit schedule induces significant responses at the extensive margin. I use the estimated earnings responses to evaluate how the benefit offset affects program costs, and find that relaxing the benefit offset reduces public expenditures only if program entry is very inelastic. My findings speak to recent policy-proposals aiming to improve work incentives of DI recipients

Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers

This paper studies the economic effects on re-employment and program substitution behavior among elderly displaced workers who exogenously lose eligibility for their early retirement option. We use detailed Norwegian matched employer-employee data containing information on bankruptcy dates and individual-level wealth, income, pensions and social security benefits. Our empirical strategy employs a regression discontinuity design, as job displacement before a certain age cut-off results in losing eligibility for early retirement benefits between ages 62–67 years in Norway. We find that reemployment rates are indistinguishable between workers who just retain eligibility for early retirement benefits and those who just do not. Meanwhile, those who lose eligibility offset 69% of their lost benefits through take-up of other social security benefits, where 51% comes from disability insurance and 13% from unemployment insurance. Our findings are particularly policy relevant as tightening of age-limits for old-age pensions is on the agenda in several OECD countries, while current economic hardship throughout the region may lead to increased job displacement for elderly workers

Trajectories of Service Contact before Suicide in People with Substance Use Disorders—A National Register Study

Objective: This study aimed to identify trajectories of service use during the last year before suicide death and the characteristics associated with the trajectories in patients with substance use disorders. Methods: This study used a national registry data linkage, which included all patients with substance use disorders who died by suicide in Norway between 2010 and 2018. In- and outpatient contacts with mental health or substance use services during the last year before suicide death was analyzed by week using Sequence State Analysis and cluster analysis to identify trajectories. Logistic regression was used to measure the association between the characteristics and the trajectories. Results: We identified four trajectories of service contact. A brief contact trajectory (n ¼ 366) with a low proportion of weeks in contact (M weeks ¼ 8.3), associated with less psychosis or bipolar disorder (aOR ¼ 0.13 (0.08–0.22)) and higher age. A regular contact trajectory (n ¼ 160), with a higher proportion of contact (M weeks ¼ 47.9), associated with psychosis or bipolar disorder (aOR ¼ 3.66 (2.10–6.47)) and depressive or anxiety disorder (aOR ¼ 3.11 (1.93–5.13)). An intermittent contact trajectory (n ¼ 195) with most contacts with outpatient substance use disorder services (M weeks ¼ 9.7). A continuous contact trajectory (n ¼ 109) with a high proportion of inpatient contact (M weeks ¼ 44.5), strongly associated with psychosis or bipolar disorder (aOR ¼ 6.08 (3.26–11.80)). Conclusion: Longitudinal descriptions of service use reveal different trajectories that are important to consider when developing policies or interventions to reduce the risk of suicide death in patients with substance use disorders

Radiative forcing bias of simulated surface albedo modifications linked to forest cover changes at northern latitudes

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Sjømatnæringen og Covid-19 - Tiltak, strategier, muligheter og utfordringer

I mars 2020 erklærte Verdens helseorganisasjon (WHO) at Covid-19 var en pandemi og den norske regjeringen innførte en nasjonal nedstenging av samfunnet. Denne rapporten presenterer en studie av konsekvenser av korona for den norske sjømatnæringen, tiltak og strategier, muligheter og utfordringer. Intervju med aktører i næringen synligjør at det var viktig at næringen ble definert som samfunnskritisk og at forum dialog mellom myndigheter og næring ble etablert tidlig. Samtidig traff tiltak knyttet til stengte grenser havbruk og hvitfisksektoren ulikt. Rapporten gir kunnskap som kan være verdifull for fremtidig krisehåndtering i næringen.publishedVersio

AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as surface in situ observations

Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50% decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2/3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AOD(f), AOD(c)), Angstrom exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (AC(dry)) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21% +/- 20% (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from -37% (MODIS-Terra) to -16% (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R > 0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatiotemporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AOD(c) (similar to-45% +/- 25 %) than in fine AOD(f) (similar to-15% +/- 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AOD(c) bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AOD(c). Column AEs are underestimated by about 10% +/- 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140% if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of -35% +/- 25% and -20% +/- 18% for SCdry and AC(dry), respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than AC(dry) suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. -15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between -35% and +10 %.Peer reviewe

Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5–13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation

Changes in black carbon emissions over Europe due to COVID-19 lockdowns

Following the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan (China) and its spread to the rest of the world, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Without effective treatment in the initial pandemic phase, social distancing and mandatory quarantines were introduced as the only available preventative measure. In contrast to the detrimental societal impacts, air quality improved in all countries in which strict lockdowns were applied, due to lower pollutant emissions. Here we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe on ambient black carbon (BC), which affects climate and damages health, using in situ observations from 17 European stations in a Bayesian inversion framework. BC emissions declined by 23 kt in Europe (20% in Italy, 40% in Germany, 34% in Spain, 22% in France) during lockdowns compared to the same period in the previous 5 years, which is partially attributed to COVID-19 measures. BC temporal variation in the countries enduring the most drastic restrictions showed the most distinct lockdown impacts. Increased particle light absorption in the beginning of the lockdown, confirmed by assimilated satellite and remote sensing data, suggests residential combustion was the dominant BC source. Accordingly, in central and Eastern Europe, which experienced lower than average temperatures, BC was elevated compared to the previous 5 years. Nevertheless, an average decrease of 11% was seen for the whole of Europe compared to the start of the lockdown period, with the highest peaks in France (42 %), Germany (21 %), UK (13 %), Spain (11 %) and Italy (8 %). Such a decrease was not seen in the previous years, which also confirms the impact of COVID-19 on the European emissions of BC.Peer reviewe

Subdividing Y-chromosome haplogroup R1a1 reveals Norse Viking dispersal lineages in Britain

The influence of Viking-Age migrants to the British Isles is obvious in archaeological and place-names evidence, but their demographic impact has been unclear. Autosomal genetic analyses support Norse Viking contributions to parts of Britain, but show no signal corresponding to the Danelaw, the region under Scandinavian administrative control from the ninth to eleventh centuries. Y-chromosome haplogroup R1a1 has been considered as a possible marker for Viking migrations because of its high frequency in peninsular Scandinavia (Norway and Sweden). Here we select ten Y-SNPs to discriminate informatively among hg R1a1 sub-haplogroups in Europe, analyse these in 619 hg R1a1 Y chromosomes including 163 from the British Isles, and also type 23 short-tandem repeats (Y-STRs) to assess internal diversity. We find three specifically Western-European sub-haplogroups, two of which predominate in Norway and Sweden, and are also found in Britain; starlike features in the STR networks of these lineages indicate histories of expansion. We ask whether geographical distributions of hg R1a1 overall, and of the two sub-lineages in particular, correlate with regions of Scandinavian influence within Britain. Neither shows any frequency difference between regions that have higher (≥10%) or lower autosomal contributions from Norway and Sweden, but both are significantly overrepresented in the region corresponding to the Danelaw. These differences between autosomal and Y-chromosomal histories suggest either male-specific contribution, or the influence of patrilocality. Comparison of modern DNA with recently available ancient DNA data supports the interpretation that two sub-lineages of hg R1a1 spread with the Vikings from peninsular Scandinavia

A Nationwide Study of GATA2 Deficiency in Norway-the Majority of Patients Have Undergone Allo-HSCT

PurposeGATA2 deficiency is a rare primary immunodeficiency that has become increasingly recognized due to improved molecular diagnostics and clinical awareness. The only cure for GATA2 deficiency is allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). The inconsistency of genotype-phenotype correlations makes the decision regarding "who and when" to transplant challenging. Despite considerable morbidity and mortality, the reported proportion of patients with GATA2 deficiency that has undergone allo-HSCT is low (~ 35%). The purpose of this study was to explore if detailed clinical, genetic, and bone marrow characteristics could predict end-point outcome, i.e., death and allo-HSCT.MethodsAll medical genetics departments in Norway were contacted to identify GATA2 deficient individuals. Clinical information, genetic variants, treatment, and outcome were subsequently retrieved from the patients' medical records.ResultsBetween 2013 and 2020, we identified 10 index cases or probands, four additional symptomatic patients, and no asymptomatic patients with germline GATA2 variants. These patients had a diverse clinical phenotype dominated by cytopenia (13/14), myeloid neoplasia (10/14), warts (8/14), and hearing loss (7/14). No valid genotype-phenotype correlations were found in our data set, and the phenotypes varied also within families. We found that 11/14 patients (79%), with known GATA2 deficiency, had already undergone allo-HSCT. In addition, one patient is awaiting allo-HSCT. The indications to perform allo-HSCT were myeloid neoplasia, disseminated viral infection, severe obliterating bronchiolitis, and/or HPV-associated in situ carcinoma. Two patients died, 8 months and 7 years after allo-HSCT, respectively.ConclusionOur main conclusion is that the majority of patients with symptomatic GATA2 deficiency will need allo-HSCT, and a close surveillance of these patients is important to find the "optimal window" for allo-HSCT. We advocate a more offensive approach to allo-HSCT than previously described