Modelling the Recovery Process After Severe Head Injury

The problem considered in this thesis is the prediction of the quality of survival after severe head injury. A model of the recovery trend of the patient through time is derived and this model is used to predict ultimate outcome. Chapter 1 introduces the problem of prognosis in clinical decision making, and in particular, its importance in the context of severe head injuries. It identifies the need for a new statistical approach to this problem. Chapter 2 describes the development of the Head Injury Study data bank from the initial stages when terminology needed to be carefully defined to the present day. It gives a detailed description of the Glasgow Coma and Outcome Scales. The data collection methods are described along with the problems encountered in establishing a reliable data bank. Suggestions are given to minimise these problems. In Chapter 3 discriminant analysis is introduced and its terminology defined. The factors involved in variable selection, the problem of missing data and the assessment of the performance of a discriminant rule are discussed in general terms. Two major studies are described where the prediction of outcome after severe head injury is made using information from the Head Injury Study data bank: first the early work using an independence model, and then a comparative study which was carried out to assess the relative merits of different discrimination techniques. Chapter 3 finishes by illustrating that, while these methods are successful in the prediction of death or survival, a new approach is required to predict the quality of survival. Chapter 4 contains the work involved in modelling the recovery trend of the survivors. This is done by modelling the coma score through time. The first order autoregressive model which was initially adopted is described along with the modifications required to give an adequate decription of the data. Ways of reducing the number of parameters which need to be estimated are considered, as well as the effect of using a pseudo maximum likelihood approach to reduce the computation involved in obtaining the parameter estimates. Three methods which adequately model the recovery trend are obtained. Chapter 5 examines the performance of these methods by assessing their ability to predict the quality of survival. This assessment is based on the classification matrices and three separation measures (the error rate, average logarithmic score and average quadratic scores). How performance is affected by different priors and the 'jack-knife' technique is examined. The performance of the models incorporating trend is compared with that of other available models. Age is shown to have a substantial effect on the prediction of prognosis. In Chapter 6, age is incorporated into the models considered in Chapter 5 and the performance is re-assessed. Chapter 7 discusses the possible clinical reasons for the general lack of success of the methods considered in Chapter 5 and Chapter 6. The use of the verbal component of the coma scale is considered, and alternative data which may be useful to predict the quality of survival are discussed. Recommendations are made for future work, the importance of the quality of the information collected is stressed, and the vital role which simple statistical techniques have to play is emphasised

Increased prevalence of precancerous changes in relatives of gastric cancer patients: critical role of H. pylori

Background & Aims:Helicobacter pylori is believed to predispose to gastric cancer by inducing gastric atrophy and hypochlorhydria. First-degree relatives of patients with gastric cancer have an increased risk of developing gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of atrophy and hypochlorhydria and their association with H. pylori infection in first-degree relatives of patients with gastric cancer. Methods:H. pylori status, gastric secretory function, and gastric histology were studied in 100 first-degree relatives of patients with noncardia gastric cancer and compared with those of controls with no family history of this cancer. Results: Compared with healthy controls, relatives of patients with gastric cancer had a higher prevalence of hypochlorhydria (27% vs. 3%) but a similar prevalence of H. pylori infection (63% vs. 64%). Relatives of cancer patients also had a higher prevalence of atrophy (34%) than patients with nonulcer dyspepsia (5%) matched for H. pylori prevalence. Among the relatives of cancer patients, the prevalence of atrophy and hypochlorhydria was increased only in those with evidence of H. pylori infection, was greater in relatives of patients with familial cancer than in relatives of sporadic cancer index patients, and increased with age. Eradication of H. pylori infection produced resolution of the gastric inflammation in each subject and resolution of hypochlorhydria and atrophy in 50% of the subjects. Conclusions: Relatives of patients with gastric cancer have an increased prevalence of precancerous gastric abnormalities, but this increase is confined to those with H. pylori infection. Consequently, prophylactic eradication of the infection should be offered to such subjects

Sleep study, respiratory mechanics, chemosensitive response and quality of life in morbidly obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery: a prospective, randomized, controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries alike and leads to a series of changes in respiratory physiology. There is a strong correlation between obesity and cardiopulmonary sleep disorders. Weight loss among such patients leads to a reduction in these alterations in respiratory physiology, but clinical treatment is not effective for a long period of time. Thus, bariatric surgery is a viable option.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The present study involves patients with morbid obesity (BMI of 40 kg/m²or 35 kg/m²to 39.9 kg/m²with comorbidities), candidates for bariatric surgery, screened at the Santa Casa de Misericórdia Hospital in the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The inclusion criteria are grade III morbid obesity, an indication for bariatric surgery, agreement to participate in the study and a signed term of informed consent. The exclusion criteria are BMI above 55 kg/m², clinically significant or unstable mental health concerns, an unrealistic postoperative target weight and/or unrealistic expectations of surgical treatment. Bariatric surgery candidates who meet the inclusion criteria will be referred to Santa Casa de Misericórdia Hospital and will be reviewed again 30, 90 and 360 days following surgery. Data collection will involve patient records, personal data collection, objective assessment of HR, BP, neck circumference, chest and abdomen, collection and analysis of clinical preoperative findings, polysomnography, pulmonary function test and a questionnaire on sleepiness.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This paper describes a randomised controlled trial of morbidly obese patients. Polysomnography, respiratory mechanics, chemosensitive response and quality of life will be assessed in patients undergoing or not undergoing bariatric surgery.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>The protocol for this study is registered with the Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials - ReBEC (RBR-9k9hhv).</p

"I am nothing": experiences of loss among women suffering from severe birth injuries in Tanzania

\ud Despite the increased attention on maternal mortality during recent decades, which has resulted in maternal health being defined as a Millennium Development Goal (MDG), the disability and suffering from obstetric fistula remains a neglected issue in global health. Continuous leaking of urine and the physical, emotional and social suffering associated with it, has a profound impact on women's quality of life. This study seeks to explore the physical, cultural and psychological dimensions of living with obstetric fistula, and demonstrate how these experiences shape the identities of women affected by the condition. A cross-sectional study with qualitative and quantitative components was used to explore the experiences of Tanzanian women living with obstetric fistula and those of their husbands. The study was conducted at the Comprehensive Community Based Rehabilitation Tanzania hospital in Dar es Salaam, Bugando Medical Centre in Mwanza, and Mpwapwa district, in Dodoma region. Conveniently selected samples of 16 women were interviewed, and 151 additional women responded to a questionnaire. In addition, 12 women affected by obstetric fistula and six husbands of these affected women participated in a focus group discussions. Data were analysed using content data analysis framework and statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) version 15 for Microsoft windows. The study revealed a deep sense of loss. Loss of body control, loss of the social roles as women and wives, loss of integration in social life, and loss of dignity and self-worth were located at the core of these experiences. The women living with obstetric fistula experience a deep sense of loss that had negative impact on their identity and quality of life. Acknowledging affected women's real-life experiences is important in order to understand the occurrence and management of obstetric fistula, as well as prospects after treatment. This knowledge will help to improve women's sense of self-worth and maintain their identity as women, wives, friends and community members. Educational programmes to empower women socially and economically and counselling of families of women living with obstetric fistula may help these women receive medical and social support that is necessary.\u

COMAP Early Science: I. Overview

The CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) aims to use line intensity mapping of carbon monoxide (CO) to trace the distribution and global properties of galaxies over cosmic time, back to the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). To validate the technologies and techniques needed for this goal, a Pathfinder instrument has been constructed and fielded. Sensitive to CO(1-0) emission from $z=2.4$-$3.4$ and a fainter contribution from CO(2-1) at $z=6$-8, the Pathfinder is surveying $12$ deg$^2$ in a 5-year observing campaign to detect the CO signal from $z\sim3$. Using data from the first 13 months of observing, we estimate $P_\mathrm{CO}(k) = -2.7 \pm 1.7 \times 10^4\mu\mathrm{K}^2 \mathrm{Mpc}^3$ on scales $k=0.051-0.62 \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ - the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO(1-0) power spectrum. Based on these observations alone, we obtain a constraint on the amplitude of the clustering component (the squared mean CO line temperature-bias product) of $\langle Tb\rangle^2<49$ $\mu$K$^2$ - nearly an order-of-magnitude improvement on the previous best measurement. These constraints allow us to rule out two models from the literature. We forecast a detection of the power spectrum after 5 years with signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) 9-17. Cross-correlation with an overlapping galaxy survey will yield a detection of the CO-galaxy power spectrum with S/N of 19. We are also conducting a 30 GHz survey of the Galactic plane and present a preliminary map. Looking to the future of COMAP, we examine the prospects for future phases of the experiment to detect and characterize the CO signal from the EoR.Comment: Paper 1 of 7 in series. 18 pages, 16 figures, submitted to Ap

Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of −6.5% to −7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen

The Influence of Number and Timing of Pregnancies on Breast Cancer Risk for Women With BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutations

International audienceBACKGROUND:Full-term pregnancy (FTP) is associated with a reduced breast cancer (BC) risk over time, but women are at increased BC risk in the immediate years following an FTP. No large prospective studies, however, have examined whether the number and timing of pregnancies are associated with BC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.METHODS:Using weighted and time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, we investigated whether reproductive events are associated with BC risk for mutation carriers using a retrospective cohort (5707 BRCA1 and 3525 BRCA2 mutation carriers) and a prospective cohort (2276 BRCA1 and 1610 BRCA2 mutation carriers), separately for each cohort and the combined prospective and retrospective cohort.RESULTS:For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was no overall association with parity compared with nulliparity (combined hazard ratio [HRc] = 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.83 to 1.18). Relative to being uniparous, an increased number of FTPs was associated with decreased BC risk (HRc = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.91; HRc = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.82; HRc = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.63, for 2, 3, and ≥4 FTPs, respectively, P trend < .0001) and increasing duration of breastfeeding was associated with decreased BC risk (combined cohort P trend = .0003). Relative to being nulliparous, uniparous BRCA1 mutation carriers were at increased BC risk in the prospective analysis (prospective hazard ration [HRp] = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.09 to 2.62). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, being parous was associated with a 30% increase in BC risk (HRc = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.69), and there was no apparent decrease in risk associated with multiparity except for having at least 4 FTPs vs. 1 FTP (HRc = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.54 to 0.98).CONCLUSIONS:These findings suggest differential associations with parity between BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers with higher risk for uniparous BRCA1 carriers and parous BRCA2 carriers

The global abundance of tree palms

Aim Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change. Location Tropical and subtropical moist forests. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Palms (Arecaceae). Methods We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co‐occurring non‐palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure. Results On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long‐term climate stability. Life‐form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non‐tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above‐ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work. Conclusions Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests