Averting HIV Infections in New York City: A Modeling Approach Estimating the Future Impact of Additional Behavioral and Biomedical HIV Prevention Strategies

Background:New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically.Methods:A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model. Specification and parameterization of the model and its inputs, including the intervention portfolio, intervention effects and costs were conducted through a collaborative process between the academic modeling team and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The model projects the impact of different prevention strategies, or portfolios of prevention strategies, on the HIV epidemic in NYC.Results:Ten unique interventions were able to provide a prevention benefit at an annual program cost of less than $360,000, the threshold for consideration as a cost-saving intervention (because of offsets by future HIV treatment costs averted). An optimized portfolio of these specific interventions could result in up to a 34$106,378; the total cost was in excess of $2 billion (over the 20 year period, or approximately$100 million per year, on average). The cost-savings of prevented infections was estimated at more than $5 billion (or approximately$250 million per year, on average).Conclusions:Optimal implementation of a portfolio of evidence-based interventions can have a substantial, favorable impact on the ongoing HIV epidemic in NYC and provide future cost-saving despite significant initial costs. © 2013 Kessler et al

Frederick Municipal Airport Consulting Project

Final project for BUMO758K (Fall 2014). Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.Frederick Municipal Airport (FAA Code: FDK) is an asset to the Frederick community and a potential catalyst for business and increased tourism in the Frederick area. Due to its proximity to Washington, DC and Baltimore, MD, FDK is an ideal location for travelers who do not want to deal with the hassle of security, frequent delays and traffic at the surrounding major airports. The airport is owned by the City of Frederick and a Fixed Based Operator (FBO), Landmark Aviation, manages day-to-day operations. The City of Frederick is interested in exploring ways to increase revenue at FDK through current operations and future business possibilities, and create a reputation as the number one corporate executive airport in the Baltimore/Washington area. FDK can explore the following areas to increase the volume of flights and revenue streams: Extend the length of the runway; Build additional hangars to increase rentals; Explore other uses for airport land. To increase the volume of flights and generate increased revenue, FDK should make improvements to its current infrastructure and marketing strategy. As FDK increases its air traffic and grows through new expansion projects, it is critical to maximize revenue generation through strategic marketing and a concerted outreach effort. This marking strategy will help entice additional transient travel operations, encourage local companies to invest in air travel and maximize fuel transactions. In order to do so, local government and Landmark should coordinate to enhance the airport’s online presence and market directly to regional businesses in order to position FDK as the destination of choice for corporate executive travel in the area. This strategic marketing effort could include the following: Improved website content; Improved corporate outreach; Airport Fence; An extended Bus Route to connect FDK to existing public transportation and the surrounding are; Name change and consistent branding strategy to position Frederick Municipal Airport; Increased presence of FDK staff and advocates at industry conferences.The City of Frederic

Averting HIV Infections in New York City: A Modeling Approach Estimating the Future Impact of Additional Behavioral and Biomedical HIV Prevention Strategies

Background: New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically. Methods: A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model. Specification and parameterization of the model and its inputs, including the intervention portfolio, intervention effects and costs were conducted through a collaborative process between the academic modeling team and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The model projects the impact of different prevention strategies, or portfolios of prevention strategies, on the HIV epidemic in NYC. Results: Ten unique interventions were able to provide a prevention benefit at an annual program cost of less than$360,000, the threshold for consideration as a cost-saving intervention (because of offsets by future HIV treatment costs averted). An optimized portfolio of these specific interventions could result in up to a 34$106,378; the total cost was in excess of $2 billion (over the 20 year period, or approximately$100 million per year, on average). The cost-savings of prevented infections was estimated at more than $5 billion (or approximately$250 million per year, on average). Conclusions: Optimal implementation of a portfolio of evidence-based interventions can have a substantial, favorable impact on the ongoing HIV epidemic in NYC and provide future cost-saving despite significant initial costs

Allele-Specific HLA Loss and Immune Escape in Lung Cancer Evolution

Immune evasion is a hallmark of cancer. Losing the ability to present neoantigens through human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loss may facilitate immune evasion. However, the polymorphic nature of the locus has precluded accurate HLA copy-number analysis. Here, we present loss of heterozygosity in human leukocyte antigen (LOHHLA), a computational tool to determine HLA allele-specific copy number from sequencing data. Using LOHHLA, we find that HLA LOH occurs in 40% of non-small-cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) and is associated with a high subclonal neoantigen burden, APOBEC-mediated mutagenesis, upregulation of cytolytic activity, and PD-L1 positivity. The focal nature of HLA LOH alterations, their subclonal frequencies, enrichment in metastatic sites, and occurrence as parallel events suggests that HLA LOH is an immune escape mechanism that is subject to strong microenvironmental selection pressures later in tumor evolution. Characterizing HLA LOH with LOHHLA refines neoantigen prediction and may have implications for our understanding of resistance mechanisms and immunotherapeutic approaches targeting neoantigens. Video Abstract [Figure presented] Development of the bioinformatics tool LOHHLA allows precise measurement of allele-specific HLA copy number, improves the accuracy in neoantigen prediction, and uncovers insights into how immune escape contributes to tumor evolution in non-small-cell lung cancer

Fc-Optimized Anti-CD25 Depletes Tumor-Infiltrating Regulatory T Cells and Synergizes with PD-1 Blockade to Eradicate Established Tumors

CD25 is expressed at high levels on regulatory T (Treg) cells and was initially proposed as a target for cancer immunotherapy. However, anti-CD25 antibodies have displayed limited activity against established tumors. We demonstrated that CD25 expression is largely restricted to tumor-infiltrating Treg cells in mice and humans. While existing anti-CD25 antibodies were observed to deplete Treg cells in the periphery, upregulation of the inhibitory Fc gamma receptor (FcγR) IIb at the tumor site prevented intra-tumoral Treg cell depletion, which may underlie the lack of anti-tumor activity previously observed in pre-clinical models. Use of an anti-CD25 antibody with enhanced binding to activating FcγRs led to effective depletion of tumor-infiltrating Treg cells, increased effector to Treg cell ratios, and improved control of established tumors. Combination with anti-programmed cell death protein-1 antibodies promoted complete tumor rejection, demonstrating the relevance of CD25 as a therapeutic target and promising substrate for future combination approaches in immune-oncology

Fc Effector Function Contributes to the Activity of Human Anti-CTLA-4 Antibodies.

With the use of a mouse model expressing human Fc-gamma receptors (FcγRs), we demonstrated that antibodies with isotypes equivalent to ipilimumab and tremelimumab mediate intra-tumoral regulatory T (Treg) cell depletion in vivo, increasing the CD8+ to Treg cell ratio and promoting tumor rejection. Antibodies with improved FcγR binding profiles drove superior anti-tumor responses and survival. In patients with advanced melanoma, response to ipilimumab was associated with the CD16a-V158F high affinity polymorphism. Such activity only appeared relevant in the context of inflamed tumors, explaining the modest response rates observed in the clinical setting. Our data suggest that the activity of anti-CTLA-4 in inflamed tumors may be improved through enhancement of FcγR binding, whereas poorly infiltrated tumors will likely require combination approaches

Phylogenetic ctDNA analysis depicts early-stage lung cancer evolution.

The early detection of relapse following primary surgery for non-small-cell lung cancer and the characterization of emerging subclones, which seed metastatic sites, might offer new therapeutic approaches for limiting tumour recurrence. The ability to track the evolutionary dynamics of early-stage lung cancer non-invasively in circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) has not yet been demonstrated. Here we use a tumour-specific phylogenetic approach to profile the ctDNA of the first 100 TRACERx (Tracking Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Evolution Through Therapy (Rx)) study participants, including one patient who was also recruited to the PEACE (Posthumous Evaluation of Advanced Cancer Environment) post-mortem study. We identify independent predictors of ctDNA release and analyse the tumour-volume detection limit. Through blinded profiling of postoperative plasma, we observe evidence of adjuvant chemotherapy resistance and identify patients who are very likely to experience recurrence of their lung cancer. Finally, we show that phylogenetic ctDNA profiling tracks the subclonal nature of lung cancer relapse and metastasis, providing a new approach for ctDNA-driven therapeutic studies

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Child growth failure (CGF), manifested as stunting, wasting, and underweight, is associated with high 5 mortality and increased risks of cognitive, physical, and metabolic impairments. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face the highest levels of CGF globally. Here we illustrate national and subnational variation of under-5 CGF indicators across LMICs, providing 2000–2017 annual estimates mapped at a high spatial resolution and aggregated to policy-relevant administrative units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the World Health 10 Organization’s ambitious Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and rates of progress exist across regions, countries, and within countries; our maps identify areas where high prevalence persists even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where subnational disparities exist and the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning locally 15 tailored interventions and efficient directing of resources to accelerate progress in reducing CGF and its health implications

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning