A framework for automated anomaly detection in high frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors

River water-quality monitoring is increasingly conducted using automated in situ sensors, enabling timelier identification of unexpected values. However, anomalies caused by technical issues confound these data, while the volume and velocity of data prevent manual detection. We present a framework for automated anomaly detection in high-frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors, using turbidity, conductivity and river level data. After identifying end-user needs and defining anomalies, we ranked their importance and selected suitable detection methods. High priority anomalies included sudden isolated spikes and level shifts, most of which were classified correctly by regression-based methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average models. However, using other water-quality variables as covariates reduced performance due to complex relationships among variables. Classification of drift and periods of anomalously low or high variability improved when we applied replaced anomalous measurements with forecasts, but this inflated false positive rates. Feature-based methods also performed well on high priority anomalies, but were also less proficient at detecting lower priority anomalies, resulting in high false negative rates. Unlike regression-based methods, all feature-based methods produced low false positive rates, but did not and require training or optimization. Rule-based methods successfully detected impossible values and missing observations. Thus, we recommend using a combination of methods to improve anomaly detection performance, whilst minimizing false detection rates. Furthermore, our framework emphasizes the importance of communication between end-users and analysts for optimal outcomes with respect to both detection performance and end-user needs. Our framework is applicable to other types of high frequency time-series data and anomaly detection applications

The association between benign prostatic hyperplasia and chronic kidney disease in community-dwelling men

The association between benign prostatic hyperplasia and chronic kidney disease in community-dwelling men.BackgroundBenign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and chronic kidney disease are important public health problems in older men. Previous referral-based studies disagree on whether BPH is associated with chronic kidney disease. The objective of this study was to determine the community-based association between clinical measures of BPH and chronic kidney disease.MethodsA community-based sample of 2115 white men (ages 40–79 years) was randomly selected from the Olmsted County, Minnesota population (55% participation rate) in 1990. A random subsample (N = 476) had a detailed clinical evaluation. This evaluation included a questionnaire with similar queries to the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), peak urinary flow rates (uroflowmeter), postvoid residual urine volume (ultrasound), prostate volume (ultrasound), serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), and serum creatinine.ResultsAfter adjustment for age, hypertension, diabetes, leukocyte esterase positive (possible urinary tract infection), and smoking, chronic kidney disease [serum creatinine ≥133 μmol/L (1.5 mg/dL)] was associated with diminished peak urinary flow rate (<15 mL/sec) by an odds ratio (OR) = 2.96 (95% CI 1.30–7.01), moderate-severe lower urinary tract symptoms (IPSS >7) by an OR = 2.91 (95% CI 1.32–6.62), and chronic urinary retention (postvoid residual >100 mL) by an OR = 2.28 (95% CI 0.66–6.68). There was no association with a prostate volume >30 mL by an OR = 0.56 (95% CI 0.22–1.37) or PSA >1.4 ng/mL by an OR = 1.17 (95% CI 0.47–2.81).ConclusionThere was a cross-sectional association between signs and symptoms of bladder outlet obstruction and chronic kidney disease in community-dwelling men. Prostatic enlargement was not associated with chronic kidney disease

Dropout in a longitudinal, cohort study of urologic disease in community men

BACKGROUND: Reasons for attrition in studies vary, but may be a major concern in long-term studies if those who drop out differ systematically from those who continue to participate. Factors associated with dropout were evaluated in a twelve-year community-based, prospective cohort study of urologic disease in men. METHODS: During 1989–1991, 2,115 randomly selected Caucasian men, ages 40–79 years from Olmsted County, Minnesota were enrolled and followed with questionnaires biennially; 332 men were added in follow-up. A random subset (~25%) received a urologic examination. Baseline characteristics including age, benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) symptoms, comorbidities, and socioeconomic factors were compared between subjects who did and did not participate after the twelfth year of follow-up. RESULTS: Of the 2,447 men, 195 died and were excluded; 682 did not participate in 2002. Compared with men in the 40–49 year age group, men ≥ 70 years of age at baseline had a greater relative odds of dropout, 2.65 (95% CI: 1.93, 3.63). In age-adjusted analyses, relative to men without stroke, men who had suffered a stroke had a higher odds of dropout, age-adjusted OR 3.07 (95% CI: 1.49, 6.33). Presence of at least one BPH symptom was not associated with dropout, (age-adjusted OR 1.12 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.36)). CONCLUSION: These results provide assurance that dropout was not related to primary study outcomes. However, factors associated with dropout should be taken into account in analyses where they may be potential confounders

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Dominant native and non-native graminoids differ in key leaf traits irrespective of nutrient availability

Aim: Nutrient enrichment is associated with plant invasions and biodiversity loss. Functional trait advantages may predict the ascendancy of invasive plants following nutrient enrichment but this is rarely tested. Here, we investigate (a) whether dominant native and non-native plants differ in important morphological and physiological leaf traits, (b) how their traits respond to nutrient addition, and (c) whether responses are consistent across functional groups. Location: Australia, Europe, North America and South Africa. Time period: 2007–2014. Major taxa studied: Graminoids and forbs. Methods: We focused on two types of leaf traits connected to resource acquisition: morphological features relating to light-foraging surfaces and investment in tissue (specific leaf area, SLA) and physiological features relating to internal leaf chemistry as the basis for producing and utilizing photosynthate. We measured these traits on 503 leaves from 151 dominant species across 27 grasslands on four continents. We used an identical nutrient addition treatment of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) at all sites. Sites represented a broad range of grasslands that varied widely in climatic and edaphic conditions. Results: We found evidence that non-native graminoids invest in leaves with higher nutrient concentrations than native graminoids, particularly at sites where native and non-native species both dominate. We found little evidence that native and non-native forbs differed in the measured leaf traits. These results were consistent in natural soil fertility levels and nutrient-enriched conditions, with dominant species responding similarly to nutrient addition regardless of whether they were native or non-native. Main conclusions: Our work identifies the inherent physiological trait advantages that can be used to predict non-native graminoid establishment, potentially because of higher efficiency at taking up crucial nutrients into their leaves. Most importantly, these inherent advantages are already present at natural soil fertility levels and are maintained following nutrient enrichment

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Leaf nutrients, not specific leaf area, are consistent indicators of elevated nutrient inputs

Leaf traits are frequently measured in ecology to provide a ‘common currency’ for predicting how anthropogenic pressures impact ecosystem function. Here, we test whether leaf traits consistently respond to experimental treatments across 27 globally distributed grassland sites across 4 continents. We find that specific leaf area (leaf area per unit mass)—a commonly measured morphological trait inferring shifts between plant growth strategies—did not respond to up to four years of soil nutrient additions. Leaf nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium concentrations increased in response to the addition of each respective soil nutrient. We found few significant changes in leaf traits when vertebrate herbivores were excluded in the short-term. Leaf nitrogen and potassium concentrations were positively correlated with species turnover, suggesting that interspecific trait variation was a significant predictor of leaf nitrogen and potassium, but not of leaf phosphorus concentration. Climatic conditions and pretreatment soil nutrient levels also accounted for significant amounts of variation in the leaf traits measured. Overall, we find that leaf morphological traits, such as specific leaf area, are not appropriate indicators of plant response to anthropogenic perturbations in grasslands