Species assembly in model ecosystems, I: Analysis of the population model and the invasion dynamics

Recently we have introduced a simplified model of ecosystem assembly (Capitan et al., 2009) for which we are able to map out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions in an exact manner. In this paper we provide a deeper analysis of the model, obtaining analytical results and introducing some approximations which allow us to reconstruct the results of our previous work. In particular, we show that the population dynamics equations of a very general class of trophic-level structured food-web have an unique interior equilibrium point which is globally stable. We show analytically that communities found as end states of the assembly process are pyramidal and we find that the equilibrium abundance of any species at any trophic level is approximately inversely proportional to the number of species in that level. We also find that the per capita growth rate of a top predator invading a resident community is key to understand the appearance of complex end states reported in our previous work. The sign of these rates allows us to separate regions in the space of parameters where the end state is either a single community or a complex set containing more than one community. We have also built up analytical approximations to the time evolution of species abundances that allow us to determine, with high accuracy, the sequence of extinctions that an invasion may cause. Finally we apply this analysis to obtain the communities in the end states. To test the accuracy of the transition probability matrix generated by this analytical procedure for the end states, we have compared averages over those sets with those obtained from the graph derived by numerical integration of the Lotka-Volterra equations. The agreement is excellent.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures. Revised versio

Functional Integration of Ecological Networks through Pathway Proliferation

Large-scale structural patterns commonly occur in network models of complex systems including a skewed node degree distribution and small-world topology. These patterns suggest common organizational constraints and similar functional consequences. Here, we investigate a structural pattern termed pathway proliferation. Previous research enumerating pathways that link species determined that as pathway length increases, the number of pathways tends to increase without bound. We hypothesize that this pathway proliferation influences the flow of energy, matter, and information in ecosystems. In this paper, we clarify the pathway proliferation concept, introduce a measure of the node--node proliferation rate, describe factors influencing the rate, and characterize it in 17 large empirical food-webs. During this investigation, we uncovered a modular organization within these systems. Over half of the food-webs were composed of one or more subgroups that were strongly connected internally, but weakly connected to the rest of the system. Further, these modules had distinct proliferation rates. We conclude that pathway proliferation in ecological networks reveals subgroups of species that will be functionally integrated through cyclic indirect effects.Comment: 29 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, Submitted to Journal of Theoretical Biolog

Antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Progress in characterising the humoral immune response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been rapid but areas of uncertainty persist. Assessment of the full range of evidence generated to date to understand the characteristics of the antibody response, its dynamics over time, its determinants and the immunity it confers will have a range of clinical and policy implications for this novel pathogen. This review comprehensively evaluated evidence describing the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 published from 01/01/2020-26/06/2020. METHODS: Systematic review. Keyword-structured searches were carried out in MEDLINE, Embase and COVID-19 Primer. Articles were independently screened on title, abstract and full text by two researchers, with arbitration of disagreements. Data were double-extracted into a pre-designed template, and studies critically appraised using a modified version of the Public Health Ontario Meta-tool for Quality Appraisal of Public Health Evidence (MetaQAT) tool, with resolution of disagreements by consensus. Findings were narratively synthesised. RESULTS: 150 papers were included. Most studies (113 or 75%) were observational in design, were based wholly or primarily on data from hospitalised patients (108, 72%) and had important methodological limitations. Few considered mild or asymptomatic infection. Antibody dynamics were well described in the acute phase, up to around three months from disease onset, but the picture regarding correlates of the antibody response was inconsistent. IgM was consistently detected before IgG in included studies, peaking at weeks two to five and declining over a further three to five weeks post-symptom onset depending on the patient group; IgG peaked around weeks three to seven post-symptom onset then plateaued, generally persisting for at least eight weeks. Neutralising antibodies were detectable within seven to 15 days following disease onset, with levels increasing until days 14-22 before levelling and then decreasing, but titres were lower in those with asymptomatic or clinically mild disease. Specific and potent neutralising antibodies have been isolated from convalescent plasma. Cross-reactivity but limited cross-neutralisation with other human coronaviridae was reported. Evidence for protective immunity in vivo was limited to small, short-term animal studies, showing promising initial results in the immediate recovery phase. CONCLUSIONS: Literature on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 is of variable quality with considerable heterogeneity of methods, study participants, outcomes measured and assays used. Although acute phase antibody dynamics are well described, longer-term patterns are much less well evidenced. Comprehensive assessment of the role of demographic characteristics and disease severity on antibody responses is needed. Initial findings of low neutralising antibody titres and possible waning of titres over time may have implications for sero-surveillance and disease control policy, although further evidence is needed. The detection of potent neutralising antibodies in convalescent plasma is important in the context of development of therapeutics and vaccines. Due to limitations with the existing evidence base, large, cross-national cohort studies using appropriate statistical analysis and standardised serological assays and clinical classifications should be prioritised

T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 is critical to vaccine development, epidemiological surveillance and disease control strategies. This systematic review critically evaluates and synthesises the relevant peer-reviewed and pre-print literature published from 01/01/2020-26/06/2020. METHODS: For this systematic review, keyword-structured literature searches were carried out in MEDLINE, Embase and COVID-19 Primer. Papers were independently screened by two researchers, with arbitration of disagreements by a third researcher. Data were independently extracted into a pre-designed Excel template and studies critically appraised using a modified version of the MetaQAT tool, with resolution of disagreements by consensus. Findings were narratively synthesised. RESULTS: 61 articles were included. 55 (90%) studies used observational designs, 50 (82%) involved hospitalised patients with higher acuity illness, and the majority had important limitations. Symptomatic adult COVID-19 cases consistently show peripheral T cell lymphopenia, which positively correlates with increased disease severity, duration of RNA positivity, and non-survival; while asymptomatic and paediatric cases display preserved counts. People with severe or critical disease generally develop more robust, virus-specific T cell responses. T cell memory and effector function has been demonstrated against multiple viral epitopes, and, cross-reactive T cell responses have been demonstrated in unexposed and uninfected adults, but the significance for protection and susceptibility, respectively, remains unclear. CONCLUSION: A complex pattern of T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 infection has been demonstrated, but inferences regarding population level immunity are hampered by significant methodological limitations and heterogeneity between studies, as well as a striking lack of research in asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic individuals. In contrast to antibody responses, population-level surveillance of the T cell response is unlikely to be feasible in the near term. Focused evaluation in specific sub-groups, including vaccine recipients, should be prioritised

The spread and persistence of infectious diseases in structured populations

A basic assumption of many epidemic models is that populations are composed of a homogeneous group of randomly mixing individuals. This is not a realistic assumption. Most actual populations are divided into a number of subpopulations, within which there may be relatively random mixing, but among which there is nonrandom mixing. As a consequence of the structuring of the population, there are several sources of heterogeneity within populations that can affect the course of an infection through the population. Two of these sources of heterogeneity are differences in contact number between subpopulations, and differences in the patterns of contact among subpopulations. A model for the spread of a disease in such a population is described. The model considers two levels of interaction: interactions between individuals within a subpopulation because of geographic proximity, and interactions between individuals of the same or different subpopulations because of attendance at common social functions. Because of this structure, it is possible to analyze with the model both heterogeneity in contact number and variation in the patterns of contact. A stability analysis of the model is presented which shows that there is a unique threshold for disease maintenance. Below the threshold the disease goes extinct, and the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold, the extinction equilibrium is unstable, and there is a unique endemic equilibrium. The analysis presents a sufficient condition for disease maintenance, which determines critical subpopulation sizes above which the disease cannot go extinct. The condition is a simple inequality relating the removal rate of infectives to the infection rate of susceptibles. In addition, bounds on the actual threshold and the effect of symmetry in the interaction matrix on the threshold are presented.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27249/1/0000257.pd

Related herbivore species show similar temporal dynamics

1.Within natural communities, different taxa display different dynamics in time. Why this is the case we do not fully know. This thwarts our ability to predict changes in community structure, which is important for both the conservation of rare species in natural communities and for the prediction of pest outbreaks in agriculture. 2.Species sharing phylogeny, natural enemies and/or life‐history traits have been hypothesized to share similar temporal dynamics. We operationalized these concepts into testing whether feeding guild, voltinism, similarity in parasitoid community and/or phylogenetic relatedness explained similarities in temporal dynamics among herbivorous community members. 3.Focusing on two similar datasets from different geographical regions (Finland and Japan), we used asymmetric eigenvector maps as temporal variables to characterize species‐ and community‐level dynamics of specialist insect herbivores on oak (Quercus). We then assessed whether feeding guild, voltinism, similarity in parasitoid community and/or phylogenetic relatedness explained similarities in temporal dynamics among taxa. 4.Species‐specific temporal dynamics varied widely, ranging from directional decline or increase to more complex patterns. Phylogeny was a clear predictor of similarity in temporal dynamics at the Finnish site, whereas for the Japanese site, the data were uninformative regarding a phylogenetic imprint. Voltinism, feeding guild and parasitoid overlap explained little variation at either location. Despite the rapid temporal dynamics observed at the level of individual species, these changes did not translate into any consistent temporal changes at the community level in either Finland or Japan. 5.Overall, our findings offer no direct support for the notion that species sharing natural enemies and/or life‐history traits would be characterized by similar temporal dynamics, but reveal a strong imprint of phylogenetic relatedness. As this phylogenetic signal cannot be attributed to guild, voltinism or parasitoids, it will likely derive from shared microhabitat, microclimate, anatomy, physiology or behaviour. This has important implications for predicting insect outbreaks and for informing insect conservation. We hope that future studies will assess the generality of our findings across plant‐feeding insect communities and beyond, and establish the more precise mechanism(s) underlying the phylogenetic imprint

Carbamazepine reduces memory induced activation of mesial temporal lobe structures: a pharmacological fMRI-study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: It is not known whether carbamazepine (CBZ; a drug widely used in neurology and psychiatry) influences the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) contrast changes induced by neuronal activation and measured by functional MRI (fMRI). We aimed to investigate the influence of CBZ on memory induced activation of the mesial temporal lobes in patients with symptomatic temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twenty-one individual patients with refractory symptomatic TLE with different CBZ serum levels and 20 healthy controls were studied using BOLD fMRI. Mesial temporal lobe (MTL) activation was induced by a task that is based on the retrieval of individually familiar visuo-spatial knowledge. The extent of significant MTL fMRI activation was measured and correlated with the CBZ serum level. RESULTS: In TLE patients, the extent of significant fMRI activation over both MTL was negatively correlated to the CBZ serum level (Spearman r = -0.654, P < 0.001). Activation over the supposedly normal MTL, i.e. contralateral to the seizure onset of TLE patients, was smaller than the averaged MTL activation in healthy controls (P < 0.005). Age, duration of epilepsy, side of seizure onset, and intelligence were not correlated to the extent of the significant BOLD-response over both MTL in patients with TLE. CONCLUSIONS: In TLE patients, carbamazepine reduces the fMRI-detectable changes within the mesial temporal lobes as induced by effortful memory retrieval. FMRI appears to be suitable to study the effects of chronic drug treatment in patients with epilepsy

Spatial Dynamics Of Vertical And Horizontal Intergovernmental Collaboration

Although researchers have made progress in understanding motivations behind local government collaboration, there is little research that explores the spatial dynamics of such interactions. Does the idea of collaboration travel horizontally, passed from neighbor to neighbor, or is vertical leadership from state, county, or regional actors more important in influencing local governments’ decisions to share resources and functions? What factors influence local governments’ choices to collaborate with their neighbors versus a regional entity, county, or state government? In this article, we investigate the importance of vertical and horizontal influences when local governments decide to collaborate around land use planning. Using data from a survey of Michigan local government officials, we take a spatial statistical approach to answering this question. We find widespread evidence of collaboration at multiple scales, and observe patterns of both horizontal and vertical influence. We also find that contextual factors help to explain these patterns of collaboration.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112248/1/juaf12139.pd

The robustness, link-species relationship and network properties of model food webs

New results are collected using the Webworld model which simulates evolutionary food web construction with population dynamics (Drossel et al., 2001 [1]). We show that it supports a link-species relationship of neither constant link-density nor constant connectance, and new properties for the food webs are calculated including clustering coefficients and stability in the sense of community robustness to species deletion. Time-series for more than 40 properties of the taxonomic and trophic webs are determined over the course of individual simulations. Robustness is found to be positively correlated with connectance, but negatively with diversity, and we study the long-term development of model webs including the distribution of extinction events in a simulation with 108 speciation event

IRC/The Hague:

Contract HRN-I-00-99-00011-0