Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81-87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS: Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: The 30-day-mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was .80, and the Brier score was .18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30-day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die. CONCLUSION: A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30-day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision-making capacity

Sepsis at ICU admission does not decrease 30-day survival in very old patients: a post-hoc analysis of the VIP1 multinational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The number of intensive care patients aged ≥ 80 years (Very old Intensive Care Patients; VIPs) is growing. VIPs have high mortality and morbidity and the benefits of ICU admission are frequently questioned. Sepsis incidence has risen in recent years and identification of outcomes is of considerable public importance. We aimed to determine whether VIPs admitted for sepsis had different outcomes than those admitted for other acute reasons and identify potential prognostic factors for 30-day survival. RESULTS: This prospective study included VIPs with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores ≥ 2 acutely admitted to 307 ICUs in 21 European countries. Of 3869 acutely admitted VIPs, 493 (12.7%) [53.8% male, median age 83 (81-86) years] were admitted for sepsis. Sepsis was defined according to clinical criteria; suspected or demonstrated focus of infection and SOFA score ≥ 2 points. Compared to VIPs admitted for other acute reasons, VIPs admitted for sepsis were younger, had a higher SOFA score (9 vs. 7, p < 0.0001), required more vasoactive drugs [82.2% vs. 55.1%, p < 0.0001] and renal replacement therapies [17.4% vs. 9.9%; p < 0.0001], and had more life-sustaining treatment limitations [37.3% vs. 32.1%; p = 0.02]. Frailty was similar in both groups. Unadjusted 30-day survival was not significantly different between the two groups. After adjustment for age, gender, frailty, and SOFA score, sepsis had no impact on 30-day survival [HR 0.99 (95% CI 0.86-1.15), p = 0.917]. Inverse-probability weight (IPW)-adjusted survival curves for the first 30 days after ICU admission were similar for acute septic and non-septic patients [HR: 1.00 (95% CI 0.87-1.17), p = 0.95]. A matched-pair analysis in which patients with sepsis were matched with two control patients of the same gender with the same age, SOFA score, and level of frailty was also performed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model stratified on the matched pairs showed that 30-day survival was similar in both groups [57.2% (95% CI 52.7-60.7) vs. 57.1% (95% CI 53.7-60.1), p = 0.85]. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for organ dysfunction, sepsis at admission was not independently associated with decreased 30-day survival in this multinational study of 3869 VIPs. Age, frailty, and SOFA score were independently associated with survival

Relationship between the Clinical Frailty Scale and short-term mortality in patients ≥ 80 years old acutely admitted to the ICU: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is frequently used to measure frailty in critically ill adults. There is wide variation in the approach to analysing the relationship between the CFS score and mortality after admission to the ICU. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of modelling approach on the association between the CFS score and short-term mortality and quantify the prognostic value of frailty in this context. METHODS: We analysed data from two multicentre prospective cohort studies which enrolled intensive care unit patients ≥ 80 years old in 26 countries. The primary outcome was mortality within 30-days from admission to the ICU. Logistic regression models for both ICU and 30-day mortality included the CFS score as either a categorical, continuous or dichotomous variable and were adjusted for patient's age, sex, reason for admission to the ICU, and admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. RESULTS: The median age in the sample of 7487 consecutive patients was 84 years (IQR 81-87). The highest fraction of new prognostic information from frailty in the context of 30-day mortality was observed when the CFS score was treated as either a categorical variable using all original levels of frailty or a nonlinear continuous variable and was equal to 9% using these modelling approaches (p < 0.001). The relationship between the CFS score and mortality was nonlinear (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Knowledge about a patient's frailty status adds a substantial amount of new prognostic information at the moment of admission to the ICU. Arbitrary simplification of the CFS score into fewer groups than originally intended leads to a loss of information and should be avoided. Trial registration NCT03134807 (VIP1), NCT03370692 (VIP2)

Outcome of cataract surgery in Nigeria: visual acuity, autorefraction, and optimal intraocular lens powers--results from the Nigeria national survey.

OBJECTIVE: To describe presenting and corrected visual acuities after cataract surgery in a nationally representative sample of adults. Another objective was to describe refractive errors in operated eyes and to determine the optimal range of intraocular lens (IOL) powers for this population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based survey. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 40 years and more were selected using multistage stratified sampling and proportional to size procedures. A sample size of 15027 was calculated, and clusters were selected from all states. METHODS: Individuals who had undergone cataract surgery were identified from interview and examination. All had their presenting visual acuity (VA) measured using a reduced logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution chart and underwent autorefraction. Corrected VAs were assessed using the autorefraction results in a trial set. An ophthalmologist conducted all examinations, including slit-lamp and dilated fundus examination. Causes of visual loss were determined for all eyes with a presenting VA <6/12 using the World Health Organization recommendations. Biometry data were derived from 20449 phakic eyes using the SRK-T formula after excluding those with poor VA or corneal opacities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presenting and corrected visual acuities in pseudo/aphakic individuals and autorefraction findings; biometry profile of Nigerian adults. RESULTS: Data from 288 eyes of 217 participants were analyzed. Only 39.5% of eyes had undergone IOL implantation at surgery. Only 29.9% of eyes had a good outcome (i.e., ≥6/18) at presentation, increasing to 55.9% with correction. Use of an IOL was the only factor associated with a good outcome at presentation (odds ratio 9.0; 95% confidence interval, 4.3-18.9; P=0.001). Eyes undergoing cataract surgery had a higher prevalence and degree of astigmatism than phakic eyes. Biometry data reveal that posterior chamber IOL powers of 20, 21, and 22 diopters (D) (A constant 118.0) will give a postoperative refraction range of -2.0 D to emmetropia in 71.4% of eyes, which increases to 82.6% if 19 D is also included. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative astigmatism needs to be reduced through better surgical techniques and training, and use of biometry should be standard of care

Correction of refractive error in the Victorian population: the feasibility of "off the shelf" spectacles

First published by BMJ Publishing Group who hold exclusive publishing rights.Aims - To assess the feasibility of providing a stock of ready made spectacles for correction of refractive error in the general population. Methods - Data were collected in the Visual Impairment Project, a population based survey of Victorian residents aged 40 years or older in randomly selected urban and rural sample areas. This included a refractive eye examination and the proportion of subjects with hypermetropia, emmetropia (defined as -1.0 to +1.0D spherical equivalent), and myopia documented in the 40-60 year age group. Results - 2595 (54.8%) participants were aged between 40 and 60 years. Those with a best corrected visual acuity of less than 6/12, astigmatism of more than 1.25D, and anisometropia of more than 0.5D were excluded. 516 participants had refractive error which was deemed suitable for correction by “off the shelf” spectacles. This represents 19.9% of all participants between 40 and 60 years of age. Provision of spectacles in 0.5D increments would provide suitable stock spectacles for 85.5% of a -3.0 to +3.0D range or 89.2% of a -3.50 to +3.50D range. Conclusions - Ready made “off the shelf” spectacles could significantly alleviate visual morbidity due to refractive error in up to 20% of an urban population in Australia. This approach may also be useful in developing countries with poor access to optometric services