Evidence functions: a compositional approach to information

The discrete case of Bayes’ formula is considered the paradigm of information acquisition. Prior and posterior probability functions, as well as likelihood functions, called evidence functions, are compositions following the Aitchison geometry of the simplex, and have thus vector character. Bayes’ formula becomes a vector addition. The Aitchison norm of an evidence function is introduced as a scalar measurement of information. A fictitious fire scenario serves as illustration. Two different inspections of affected houses are considered. Two questions are addressed: (a) which is the information provided by the outcomes of inspections, and (b) which is the most informative inspection.Peer Reviewe

Translating plain English: can the Peterborough Social Impact Bond construct apply stateside?

Crime

Evidence functions: a compositional approach to information

The discrete case of Bayes’ formula is considered the paradigm of information acquisition. Prior and posterior probability functions, as well as likelihood functions, called evidence functions, are compositions following the Aitchison geometry of the simplex, and have thus vector character. Bayes’ formula becomes a vector addition. The Aitchison norm of an evidence function is introduced as a scalar measurement of information. A fictitious fire scenario serves as illustration. Two different inspections of affected houses are considered. Two questions are addressed: (a) which is the information provided by the outcomes of inspections, and (b) which is the most informative inspection.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Geostatistical interpretation of paleoceanographic data over large ocean basins - Reality and fiction

A promising approach to reconstruct oceanographic scenarios of past time slices is to drive numerical ocean circulation models with sea surface temperatures, salinities, and ice distributions derived from sediment core data. Set up properly, this combination of boundary conditions provided by the data and physical constraints represented by the model can yield physically consistent sets of three-dimensional water mass distribution and circulation patterns. This idea is not only promising but dangerous, too. Numerical models cannot be fed directly with data from single core locations distributed unevenly and, as it is the common case, scarcely in space. Conversely, most models require forcing data sets on a regular grid with no missing points, and some method of interpolation between punctual source data and model grid has to be employed. An ideal gridding scheme must retain as much of the information present in the sediment core data while generating as few artifacts in the interpolated field as possible. Based on a set of oxygen isotope ratios, we discuss several standard interpolation strategies, namely nearest neighbour schemes, bicubic splines, Delaunay triangulation, and ordinary and indicator kriging. We assess the gridded fields with regard to their physical consistence and their implications for the oceanic circulation

Adherence to secondary stroke prevention strategies - Results from the German stroke data bank

Only very limited data are available concerning patient adherence to antithrombotic medication intended to prevent a recurrent stroke. Reduced adherence and compliance could significantly influence the effects of any stroke prevention strategies. This study from a large stroke data bank provides representative data concerning the rate of stroke victims adhering to their recommended preventive medication. During a 2-year period beginning January 1, 1998, all patients with acute stroke or TIA in 23 neurological departments with an acute stroke unit were included in the German Stroke Data Bank. Data were collected prospectively, reviewed, validated and processed in a central data management unit. Only 12 centers with a follow-up rate of 80% or higher were included in this evaluation. 3,420 patients were followed up after 3 months, and 2,640 patients were followed up one year after their stroke. After one year, 96% of all patients reported still adhere to at least one medical stroke prevention strategy. Of the patients receiving aspirin at discharge, 92.6% reported to use that medication after 3 months and 84% after one year, while 81.6 and 61.6% were the respective figures for clopidogrel, and 85.2 and 77.4% for oral anticoagulation. Most patients who changed medication switched from aspirin to clopidogrel. Under the conditions of this observational study, adherence to stroke prevention strategies is excellent. The highest adherence rate is noticed for aspirin and oral anticoagulation. After one year, very few patients stopped taking stroke preventive medication. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

Location-based and contextual mobile learning. A STELLAR Small-Scale Study

This study starts from several inputs that the partners have collected from previous and current running research projects and a workshop organised at the STELLAR Alpine Rendevous 2010. In the study, several steps have been taken, firstly a literature review and analysis of existing systems; secondly, mobile learning experts have been involved in a concept mapping study to identify the main challenges that can be solved via mobile learning; and thirdly, an identification of educational patterns based on these examples has been done. Out of this study the partners aim to develop an educational framework for contextual learning as a unifying approach in the field. Therefore one of our central research questions is: how can we investigate, theorise, model and support contextual learning