Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information

Soybean rust (SBR) is a disease of significant impact to Brazilian soybean production. Twenty-four locations in a major growing region in southern Brazil, where long-term (30 years) weather information was available, were selected to estimate the risk of SBR epidemics and identify potential predictors derived from El Niño 3.4 region. A rainfall-based model was used to predict SBR severity in an “epidemic development window” (the months of February and March for the studied region) in the time series. Twenty-eight daily simulations for each year-location (n = 720) were performed considering each day after 31 January as a hypothetical detection date (HDD) to estimate a severity index (SBRindex). The mean SBRindex in a single year was defined as the ‘growing season severity index’ (GSSI) for that year. A probabilistic risk assessment related GSSI and sea surface temperatures (SST) at the El Niño 3.4. region (here categorized as warm, cold or neutral phase) in October–November–December (OND) of the same growing season. Overall, the median GSSI across location-years was 34.5%. The risk of GSSI exceeding 60% was generally low and ranged from 0 to 20 percentage points, with the higher values found in the northern regions of the state when compared to the central-western. During a warm OND-SST phase, the probability of GSSI exceeding its overall mean (locations pooled) increased significantly by around 25 percentage points compared to neutral and cold SST phases, especially over the central western region. This study demonstrates the potential to use El Niño/Southern Oscillation information to anticipate the risk of SBR epidemics up to 1 month in advance at a regional scale

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with high in-hospital mortality. Alveolar recruitment followed by ventilation at optimal titrated PEEP may reduce ventilator-induced lung injury and improve oxygenation in patients with ARDS, but the effects on mortality and other clinical outcomes remain unknown. This article reports the rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART). Methods/Design: ART is a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized (concealed), controlled trial, which aims to determine if maximum stepwise alveolar recruitment associated with PEEP titration is able to increase 28-day survival in patients with ARDS compared to conventional treatment (ARDSNet strategy). We will enroll adult patients with ARDS of less than 72 h duration. The intervention group will receive an alveolar recruitment maneuver, with stepwise increases of PEEP achieving 45 cmH(2)O and peak pressure of 60 cmH2O, followed by ventilation with optimal PEEP titrated according to the static compliance of the respiratory system. In the control group, mechanical ventilation will follow a conventional protocol (ARDSNet). In both groups, we will use controlled volume mode with low tidal volumes (4 to 6 mL/kg of predicted body weight) and targeting plateau pressure <= 30 cmH2O. The primary outcome is 28-day survival, and the secondary outcomes are: length of ICU stay; length of hospital stay; pneumothorax requiring chest tube during first 7 days; barotrauma during first 7 days; mechanical ventilation-free days from days 1 to 28; ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month survival. ART is an event-guided trial planned to last until 520 events (deaths within 28 days) are observed. These events allow detection of a hazard ratio of 0.75, with 90% power and two-tailed type I error of 5%. All analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: If the ART strategy with maximum recruitment and PEEP titration improves 28-day survival, this will represent a notable advance to the care of ARDS patients. Conversely, if the ART strategy is similar or inferior to the current evidence-based strategy (ARDSNet), this should also change current practice as many institutions routinely employ recruitment maneuvers and set PEEP levels according to some titration method.Hospital do Coracao (HCor) as part of the Program 'Hospitais de Excelencia a Servico do SUS (PROADI-SUS)'Brazilian Ministry of Healt

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Background A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. Methods This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. Findings Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. Interpretation ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials

Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon, associated with periods of active convection in the eastern hemisphere tropics. The MJOs temporal scale (22-90 days) coincides with a gap between weather (synoptic forecasts out to 10 days) and climate (seasonal and longer forecasts). Analysis of 35 years of daily rainfall data shows significant modulation of tropical and extra-tropical rainfall by the equatorial passage of the MJO that begins to address the weather-climate forecasting gap

Mite occurrence in lantana camara flowers

Ocorrência de ácaros em flores de Lantana camara â Lantana camara é um arbusto perene com interesse agronômico pois se trata de planta invasora principalmente de pastagens quando em estado selvagem e uma bela planta ornamental em suas variedades/cultivares cultivadas. Suas flores são polinizadas por borboletas que são vistas visitando-as freqüentemente e por abelhas e beija-flores. A polinização cruzada é necessária nesta planta para ocorrer formação de frutos e sementes, estas últimas sendo seu principal mecanismo de reprodução. No corpo desses polinizadores vivem em foresia ácaros das ordens Mesostigmata e Astigmata que âtomando caronaâ chegam às flores de lantana, quando aqueles polinizadores visitam essas plantas. A distribuição de ácaros nessas flores é significativamente afetada por fatores como a temperatura e a umidade relativa do ar, pois os ácarossão muito sensíveis ao dessecamento em condições de alta temperatura e baixa umidade relativa. A freqüência relativa de ácaros em flores vermelhas foi nove vezes maior que em flores amarelas, em flores alaranjadas e rosas, esta freqüência foi próxima de cinco vezes maior que em flores amarelas. Isto está relacionado ao comprimento da corola das flores de lantana, mais longa em flores vermelhas e rosas e mais curtas em flores amarelas.Os ácaros consomem 40% do volume de néctar das flores, reduzindo a disponibilidade deste alimento aos polinizadores, que evitam visitar flores cujo néctar foi parcialmente consumido. Isto reduz a produção de sementes, mas também obriga os polinizadores a visitar plantas diferentes, promovendo a fecundação cruzada. Assim, os ácaros foréticos têm um duplo papel na reprodução de lantana, podendo ser considerados pragas bem como organismos benéficos, dependendo se se trata de lantana cultivada ou em estado selvagem. Os Mesostigmata sendo predadores, por outro lado, tem papel benéfico como biocontroladores de pragas. Palavras-chave: Mesostigmata, Astigmata, polinização, foresia, lantana ABSTRACT Lantana camara is a perennial shrub with agronomical interest as it is a weed mainly of pastures in wild state and it is a beautiful ornamental plant in its cultivated varieties/cultivars. Its flowers are pollinated by butterflies which are often seem visiting them, and by bees and hummingbirds. Cross pollination is needed in this plant for fruit and seed set, this latter being its main reproductive mechanism. On the body of these pollinators mites of the orders Mesostigmata and Astigmata live in phoresy and by hitch-hiking arrive to lantana flowers, when those pollinators visit these plants. Mite distribution in these flowers is significantly affected by factors such as temperature and air relative humidity, as mites are sensible to dessication under high temperature and low relative humidity conditions. Relative frequency of mites in red flowers was nine times higher than in yellow flowers, in orange and pink flowers, this frequency was close to five times higher than in yellow flowers. This is related to the lantana flower corolla length, longer in red and pink flowers and shorter in yellow flowers. Mites consume 40 % of flower nectar volume, reducing the availability of this food to pollinators, which avoid visiting flowers which nectar was partially consumed. This reduces seed production, but also obliges the pollinators to visit different plants, promoting cross fecundation. Thus the phoretic mites have a double role in lantana reproduction, so they may be considered pests as well as beneficial organisms depending on the cultivated lantana or wild state ones. The Mesostigmata being predatory on the other side has another beneficial role as pest biocontrollers. Key words: Mesostigmata, Astigmata, phoresy, pollination, lantan

Effect of a Formulation of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Nuclear Polyhedrosis Virus on the Predator Podisus nigrispinus (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae: Asopinae), Using the Fertility Life Table Parameters

ABSTRACT Two experiments were carried out in the laboratory to evaluate the effect of a formulation of the nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) of the velvetbean caterpillar, Anticarsia gemmatalis Hü bner (AgNPV), on the predator Podisus nigrispinus Dallas. In the Þrst experiment, predators were exclusively fed A. gemmatalis reared on artiÞcial diet, treated with one formulation of the AgNPV (infected prey) or with water (healthy prey) as the control. In the second experiment, an additional treatment was incorporated in which the artiÞcial diet was treated with an inactive (autoclaved) AgNPV formulation. The predators were fed on these exclusive prey during their entire lifespans for three or four consecutive generations, during the Þrst and second experiment, respectively. Daily observation of oviposition and mortality were performed to provide data for the construction of fertility life tables and to determine daily oviposition patterns and survival distribution curves. For both experiments, no adverse effects were observed in the Þrst generation. However, signiÞcant effects in the predator population were observed throughout the subsequent generations, when the predators were fed with prey that fed on infective or inactivated AgNPV diet compared with the healthy prey. The adverse effects observed might be due to some inert components present in the commercial formulation, because the AgNPV has been demonstrated to be highly speciÞc to Lepidoptera and neither does it replicate nor has any adverse effect on P. nigrispinus. The fertility life tables proved to be a good tool to measure the potential impact of biopesticides on nontarget population under laboratory conditions. RESUMO Dois experimentos foram realizados em condiç õ es de laborató rio para avaliar o efeito de uma formulaç ão comercial de Vṍrus da Poliedrose Nuclear da lagarta da soja, Anticarsia gemmatalis Hü bner (AgNPV) na biologia de Podisus nigrispinus Dallas. No primeiro experimento, os predadores foram alimentados exclusivamente com A. gemmatalis criadas em dieta artiÞcial, tratada com uma formulaç ão de AgNPV (presa infectada) ou com água (presa sadia), como controle. No segundo experimento, foi incorporado um tratamento adicional no qual a dieta artiÞcial foi tratada com uma formulaç ão de AgNPV inativada (autoclavada). Os predadores foram alimentados com essas presas exclusivas durante toda a vida por trê s ou quatro geraç õ es consecutivas, durante o primeiro e o segundo experimentos, respectivamente. Observaç õ es diárias da oviposiç ão e mortalidade foram feitas para se obter dados para a construç ão de tabelas de vida de fertilidade e para determinar os padrõ es de oviposiç ão diária e distribuiç ão das curvas de sobrevivê ncia. Para ambos os experimentos, não foram observados efeitos adversos na primeira geraç ão. Contudo, efeitos signiÞcativos sobre a populaç ão do predador foram observados nas geraç õ es subsequentes nos tratamentos com AgNPV ativo e inativado, mas não com o controle. Os efeitos adversos observados poderiam ser atribuidos a componentes inertes presentes na formulaç ão comercial do biopesticida, uma vez que o AgNPV tem demonstrado ser altamente seguro a organismos não alvos e especiÞco para lepidopteros. As tabelas de vida mostraram ser uma boa ferramenta para se medir efeitos de biopesticidas sobre diversos parâmetros bioló gicos de populaç õ es de organismos não alvo