Efficacy of a strategy for implementing a guideline for the control of cardiovascular risk in a primary healthcare setting: the SIRVA2 study a controlled, blinded community intervention trial randomised by clusters

This work describes the methodology used to assess a strategy for implementing clinical practice guidelines (CPG) for cardiovascular risk control in a health area of Madrid

Structural Perturbations to Population Skeletons: Transient Dynamics, Coexistence of Attractors and the Rarity of Chaos

Simple models of insect populations with non-overlapping generations have been instrumental in understanding the mechanisms behind population cycles, including wild (chaotic) fluctuations. The presence of deterministic chaos in natural populations, however, has never been unequivocally accepted. Recently, it has been proposed that the application of chaos control theory can be useful in unravelling the complexity observed in real population data. This approach is based on structural perturbations to simple population models (population skeletons). The mechanism behind such perturbations to control chaotic dynamics thus far is model dependent and constant (in size and direction) through time. In addition, the outcome of such structurally perturbed models is [almost] always equilibrium type, which fails to commensurate with the patterns observed in population data.We present a proportional feedback mechanism that is independent of model formulation and capable of perturbing population skeletons in an evolutionary way, as opposed to requiring constant feedbacks. We observe the same repertoire of patterns, from equilibrium states to non-chaotic aperiodic oscillations to chaotic behaviour, across different population models, in agreement with observations in real population data. Model outputs also indicate the existence of multiple attractors in some parameter regimes and this coexistence is found to depend on initial population densities or the duration of transient dynamics. Our results suggest that such a feedback mechanism may enable a better understanding of the regulatory processes in natural populations

Seasonal drought limits tree species across the Neotropics

AcceptedArticle in Press© 2016 Nordic Society Oikos.Within the tropics, the species richness of tree communities is strongly and positively associated with precipitation. Previous research has suggested that this macroecological pattern is driven by the negative effect of water-stress on the physiological processes of most tree species. This implies that the range limits of taxa are defined by their ability to occur under dry conditions, and thus in terms of species distributions predicts a nested pattern of taxa distribution from wet to dry areas. However, this 'dry-tolerance' hypothesis has yet to be adequately tested at large spatial and taxonomic scales. Here, using a dataset of 531 inventory plots of closed canopy forest distributed across the western Neotropics we investigated how precipitation, evaluated both as mean annual precipitation and as the maximum climatological water deficit, influences the distribution of tropical tree species, genera and families. We find that the distributions of tree taxa are indeed nested along precipitation gradients in the western Neotropics. Taxa tolerant to seasonal drought are disproportionally widespread across the precipitation gradient, with most reaching even the wettest climates sampled; however, most taxa analysed are restricted to wet areas. Our results suggest that the 'dry tolerance' hypothesis has broad applicability in the world's most species-rich forests. In addition, the large number of species restricted to wetter conditions strongly indicates that an increased frequency of drought could severely threaten biodiversity in this region. Overall, this study establishes a baseline for exploring how tropical forest tree composition may change in response to current and future environmental changes in this region.This paper is a product of the RAINFOR and ATDN networks and of ForestPlots.net researchers (http://www.forestplots.net). RAINFOR and ForestPlots have been supported by a Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation grant, the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (283080, ‘GEOCARBON’; 282664, ‘AMAZALERT’); European Research Council (ERC) grant ‘Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System’ (T-FORCES), and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Urgency Grant and NERC Consortium Grants ‘AMAZONICA’ (NE/F005806/1) and ‘TROBIT’ (NE/D005590/1). Additional funding for fieldwork was provided by Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network, a collaboration among Conservation International, the Missouri Botanical Garden, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Wildlife Conservation Society. A.E.M. receives a PhD scholarship from the T-FORCES ERC grant. O.L.P. is supported by an ERC Advanced Grant and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. We thank Jon J. Lloyd, Chronis Tzedakis, David Galbraith, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and Dylan Young for helping with the analyses. This study would not be possible without the extensive contributions of numerous field assistants and rural communities in the Neotropical forests. Alfredo Alarcón, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Plínio Barbosa Camargo, Juan Carlos Licona, Alvaro Cogollo, Massiel Corrales Medina, Jose Daniel Soto, Gloria Gutierrez, Nestor Jaramillo Jarama, Laura Jessica Viscarra, Irina Mendoza Polo, Alexander Parada Gutierrez, Guido Pardo, Lourens Poorter, Adriana Prieto, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Agustín Rudas, Rebeca Sibler and Javier Silva Espejo additionally contributed data to this study though their RAINFOR participations. We further thank those colleagues no longer with us, Jean Pierre Veillon, Samuel Almeida, Sandra Patiño and Raimundo Saraiva. Many data come from Alwyn Gentry, whose example has inspired new generations to investigate the diversity of the Neotropics

Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come

Geographic patterns of tree dispersal modes in Amazonia and their ecological correlates

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The percentages of dispersal modes per plot are included as Supporting Information (Table S7, based on 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests in Amazonia). The dispersal modes assigned to these 5433 species and morphospecies are also included as Supporting Information (Table S8).Aim: To investigate the geographic patterns and ecological correlates in the geographic distribution of the most common tree dispersal modes in Amazonia (endozoochory, synzoochory, anemochory and hydrochory). We examined if the proportional abundance of these dispersal modes could be explained by the availability of dispersal agents (disperser-availability hypothesis) and/or the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits (resource-availability hypothesis). Time period: Tree-inventory plots established between 1934 and 2019. Major taxa studied: Trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 9.55 cm. Location: Amazonia, here defined as the lowland rain forests of the Amazon River basin and the Guiana Shield. Methods: We assigned dispersal modes to a total of 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests. We investigated geographic patterns in the proportional abundance of dispersal modes. We performed an abundance-weighted mean pairwise distance (MPD) test and fit generalized linear models (GLMs) to explain the geographic distribution of dispersal modes. Results: Anemochory was significantly, positively associated with mean annual wind speed, and hydrochory was significantly higher in flooded forests. Dispersal modes did not consistently show significant associations with the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits. A lower dissimilarity in dispersal modes, resulting from a higher dominance of endozoochory, occurred in terra-firme forests (excluding podzols) compared to flooded forests. Main conclusions: The disperser-availability hypothesis was well supported for abiotic dispersal modes (anemochory and hydrochory). The availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits seems an unlikely explanation for the distribution of dispersal modes in Amazonia. The association between frugivores and the proportional abundance of zoochory requires further research, as tree recruitment not only depends on dispersal vectors but also on conditions that favour or limit seedling recruitment across forest types.Colombian institution Departamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación COLCIENCIASFaculty of Sciences, Universidad de los Ande

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

This is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. Data availability: Data used in this study can be found in cited references for the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database6 (non-native status), the KEW Plants of the World database5 (native ranges) and the Global Environmental Composite63,77 (environmental data layers). Plant trait data were extracted from Maynard et al.78. Data from the Global Forest Biodiversity Initiative (GFBI) database57 are not available due to data privacy and sharing restrictions, but can be obtained upon request via Science-I (https://science-i.org/) or GFBI (gfbinitiative.org) and an approval from data contributors.Code availability All code used to complete analyses for the manuscript is available at the following link: https://github.com/thomaslauber/Global-Tree-Invasion. Data analyses were conducted and were visualizations generated in R (v. 4.2.2), Python (v. 3.9.7), Google Earth Engine (earthengine-api 0.1.306), QGIS-LTR (v. 3.16.7) and the ETH Zurich Euler cluster.Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.Swiss National Science FoundationSwiss National Science FoundationBernina FoundationDOB Ecolog

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: Tree occurrence data from the Global Forest Biodiversity initiative (GFBi) is available upon request via Science-I (https://science-i.org) or the GFBi website (https://www.gfbiinitiative.org/). Information on leaf habit (evergreen vs deciduous) and leaf form (broadleaved vs needle-leaved) came from the TRY database (https://www.try-db.org). Additional, leaf-type data came from the Tallo dataset (https://zenodo.org/record/6637599). Plot-level soil information came from the World Soil Information Service (WOSIS) dataset (https://www.isric.org/explore/wosis).Code availability: All code is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7967245.Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations 1–6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories 7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees