A hierarchical network approach for modeling Rift Valley fever epidemics with applications in North America

Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne zoonotic disease which causes high morbidity and mortality in livestock. In the event Rift Valley fever virus is introduced to the United States or other non-endemic areas, understanding the potential patterns of spread and the areas at risk based on disease vectors and hosts will be vital for developing mitigation strategies. Presented here is a general network-based mathematical model of Rift Valley fever. Given a lack of empirical data on disease vector species and their vector competence, this discrete time epidemic model uses stochastic parameters following several PERT distributions to model the dynamic interactions between hosts and likely North American mosquito vectors in dispersed geographic areas. Spatial effects and climate factors are also addressed in the model. The model is applied to a large directed asymmetric network of 3,621 nodes based on actual farms to examine a hypothetical introduction to some counties of Texas, an important ranching area in the United States of America (U.S.A.). The nodes of the networks represent livestock farms, livestock markets, and feedlots, and the links represent cattle movements and mosquito diffusion between different nodes. Cattle and mosquito (Aedes and Culex) populations are treated with different contact networks to assess virus propagation. Rift Valley fever virus spread is assessed under various initial infection conditions (infected mosquito eggs, adults or cattle). A surprising trend is fewer initial infectious organisms result in a longer delay before a larger and more prolonged outbreak. The delay is likely caused by a lack of herd immunity while the infections expands geographically before becoming an epidemic involving many dispersed farms and animals almost simultaneously

An application of the Rasch model to reading comprehension measurement

An effective reading comprehension measurement demands robust psychometric tools that allow teachers and researchers to evaluate the educational practices and track changes in students’ performance. In this study, we illustrate how Rasch model can be used to attend such demands and improve reading comprehension measurement. We discuss the construction of two reading comprehension tests: TRC-n, with narrative texts, and TRC-e, with expository texts. Three vertically scaled forms were generated for each test (TRC-n-2, TRC-n-3, TRC-n-4; TRC-e-2, TRC-e-3 and TRC-e-4), each meant to assess Portuguese students in second, third and fourth grade of elementary school. The tests were constructed according to a nonequivalent groups with anchor test design and data were analyzed using the Rasch model. The results provided evidence for good psychometric qualities for each test form, including unidimensionality and local independence and adequate reliability. A critical view of this study and future researches are discussed.CIEC – Research Centre on Child Studies, IE, UMinho (FCT R&D unit 317), PortugalThis research was supported by Grant FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-010733 from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the European program COMPETE (Operational Program for Competitiveness Factors) under the National Strategic Reference Framework (QREN).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Assessment of examiner leniency and stringency ('hawk-dove effect') in the MRCP(UK) clinical examination (PACES) using multi-facet Rasch modelling

BACKGROUND: A potential problem of clinical examinations is known as the hawk-dove problem, some examiners being more stringent and requiring a higher performance than other examiners who are more lenient. Although the problem has been known qualitatively for at least a century, we know of no previous statistical estimation of the size of the effect in a large-scale, high-stakes examination. Here we use FACETS to carry out a multi-facet Rasch modelling of the paired judgements made by examiners in the clinical examination (PACES) of MRCP(UK), where identical candidates were assessed in identical situations, allowing calculation of examiner stringency. METHODS: Data were analysed from the first nine diets of PACES, which were taken between June 2001 and March 2004 by 10,145 candidates. Each candidate was assessed by two examiners on each of seven separate tasks. with the candidates assessed by a total of 1,259 examiners, resulting in a total of 142,030 marks. Examiner demographics were described in terms of age, sex, ethnicity, and total number of candidates examined. RESULTS: FACETS suggested that about 87% of main effect variance was due to candidate differences, 1% due to station differences, and 12% due to differences between examiners in leniency-stringency. Multiple regression suggested that greater examiner stringency was associated with greater examiner experience and being from an ethnic minority. Male and female examiners showed no overall difference in stringency. Examination scores were adjusted for examiner stringency and it was shown that for the present pass mark, the outcome for 95.9% of candidates would be unchanged using adjusted marks, whereas 2.6% of candidates would have passed, even though they had failed on the basis of raw marks, and 1.5% of candidates would have failed, despite passing on the basis of raw marks. CONCLUSION: Examiners do differ in their leniency or stringency, and the effect can be estimated using Rasch modelling. The reasons for differences are not clear, but there are some demographic correlates, and the effects appear to be reliable across time. Account can be taken of differences, either by adjusting marks or, perhaps more effectively and more justifiably, by pairing high and low stringency examiners, so that raw marks can be used in the determination of pass and fail

Studying the Underlying Event in Drell-Yan and High Transverse Momentum Jet Production at the Tevatron

We study the underlying event in proton-antiproton collisions by examining the behavior of charged particles (transverse momentum pT > 0.5 GeV/c, pseudorapidity |\eta| < 1) produced in association with large transverse momentum jets (~2.2 fb-1) or with Drell-Yan lepton-pairs (~2.7 fb-1) in the Z-boson mass region (70 < M(pair) < 110 GeV/c2) as measured by CDF at 1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. We use the direction of the lepton-pair (in Drell-Yan production) or the leading jet (in high-pT jet production) in each event to define three regions of \eta-\phi space; toward, away, and transverse, where \phi is the azimuthal scattering angle. For Drell-Yan production (excluding the leptons) both the toward and transverse regions are very sensitive to the underlying event. In high-pT jet production the transverse region is very sensitive to the underlying event and is separated into a MAX and MIN transverse region, which helps separate the hard component (initial and final-state radiation) from the beam-beam remnant and multiple parton interaction components of the scattering. The data are corrected to the particle level to remove detector effects and are then compared with several QCD Monte-Carlo models. The goal of this analysis is to provide data that can be used to test and improve the QCD Monte-Carlo models of the underlying event that are used to simulate hadron-hadron collisions.Comment: Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Measurement of the W+W−W^+W^- Production Cross Section and Search for Anomalous WWγWW\gamma and WWZWWZ Couplings in ppˉp \bar p Collisions at s=1.96\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

This Letter describes the current most precise measurement of the $W$ boson pair production cross section and most sensitive test of anomalous $WW\gamma$ and $WWZ$ couplings in $p \bar p$ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The $WW$ candidates are reconstructed from decays containing two charged leptons and two neutrinos, where the charged leptons are either electrons or muons. Using data collected by the CDF II detector from 3.6 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, a total of 654 candidate events are observed with an expected background contribution of $320 \pm 47$ events. The measured total cross section is $\sigma (p \bar p \to W^+ W^- + X) = 12.1 \pm 0.9 \textrm{(stat)} ^{+1.6}_{-1.4} \textrm{(syst)}$ pb, which is in good agreement with the standard model prediction. The same data sample is used to place constraints on anomalous $WW\gamma$ and $WWZ$ couplings.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Observation of the Baryonic Flavor-Changing Neutral Current Decay Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu-

We report the first observation of the baryonic flavor-changing neutral current decay Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu- with 24 signal events and a statistical significance of 5.8 Gaussian standard deviations. This measurement uses ppbar collisions data sample corresponding to 6.8fb-1 at sqrt{s}=1.96TeV collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. The total and differential branching ratios for Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu- are measured. We find B(Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu-) = [1.73+-0.42(stat)+-0.55(syst)] x 10^{-6}. We also report the first measurement of the differential branching ratio of B_s -> phi mu+ mu- using 49 signal events. In addition, we report branching ratios for B+ -> K+ mu+ mu-, B0 -> K0 mu+ mu-, and B -> K*(892) mu+ mu- decays.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

The Imperforate Anus Psychosocial Questionnaire (IAPSQ): Its construction and psychometric properties

The origin of the present study was to develop the liaison work between the disciplines of child and adolescent psychiatry and paediatric surgery and nursing, so as to improve the quality of treatment and care of a group of children with imperforate anus (IA) and their families. Imperforate anus is a congenital disease involving a deformity of the anorectum. The early surgery and invasive follow-up treatment associated with IA may affect the child psychosocially, including the child-parent relationship. By developing and testing a questionnaire for children born with anorectal anomalies, a tool for measuring psychosocial functioning can be realized

Forward-Backward Asymmetry in Top Quark Production in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

Reconstructable final state kinematics and charge assignment in the reaction ppbar->ttbar allows tests of discrete strong interaction symmetries at high energy. We define frame dependent forward-backward asymmetries for the outgoing top quark in both the ppbar and ttbar rest frames, correct for experimental distortions, and derive values at the parton-level. Using 1.9/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron, we measure forward-backward top quark production asymmetries in the ppbar and ttbar rest frames of A_{FB,pp} = 0.17 +- 0.08 and A_{FB,tt} = 0.24 +- 0.14.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys.Rev.Lett, corrected references and change of tex

Measurement of the Forward-Backward Asymmetry in the B -> K(*) mu+ mu- Decay and First Observation of the Bs -> phi mu+ mu- Decay

We reconstruct the rare decays $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$, $B^0 \to K^{*}(892)^0\mu^+\mu^-$, and $B^0_s \to \phi(1020)\mu^+\mu^-$ in a data sample corresponding to $4.4 {\rm fb^{-1}}$ collected in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 {\rm TeV}$ by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Using $121 \pm 16$ $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$ and $101 \pm 12$ $B^0 \to K^{*0}\mu^+\mu^-$ decays we report the branching ratios. In addition, we report the measurement of the differential branching ratio and the muon forward-backward asymmetry in the $B^+$ and $B^0$ decay modes, and the $K^{*0}$ longitudinal polarization in the $B^0$ decay mode with respect to the squared dimuon mass. These are consistent with the theoretical prediction from the standard model, and most recent determinations from other experiments and of comparable accuracy. We also report the first observation of the $B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^- decay and measure its branching ratio${\mathcal{B}}(B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^-) = [1.44 \pm 0.33 \pm 0.46] \times 10^{-6}$using$27 \pm 6$signal events. This is currently the most rare$B^0_s$ decay observed.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let