Challenges in supplying empirical proof for predictions derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs): the case of an invasive cyanobacterium

Species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated with bioclimatic variables revealed a high probability for range expansion of the invasive toxin producing cyanobacterium, Raphidiopsis raciborskii to Sweden, where no reports of its presence have hitherto been recorded. While predictions focused on the importance of climate variables for possible invasion, other barriers to dispersal and successful colonization need to be overcome by the species for successful invasion. In this study, we combine field-based surveys of R. raciborskii (microscopy and molecular analysis using species-specific primers) of 11 Swedish lakes and in-silico screening of environmental DNA using 153 metagenomic datasets from lakes across Europe to validate the SDMs prediction. Field-based studies in lakes with high/low predicted probability of occurrence did not detect the presence of R. raciborskii, and in-silico screening only detected hints of its presence in 5 metagenomes from lakes with probability ranging from 0.059 to 0.825. The inconsistencies between SDMs results and both field-based/in-silico monitoring could be due to either sensitivity of monitoring approaches in detecting early invasions or uncertainties in SDMs that focused solely on climate drivers. However, results highlight the necessity of proactive monitoring with high temporal and spatial frequency

Species distribution models as a tool for early detection of the invasive Raphidiopsis raciborskii in European lakes

In freshwater habitats, invasive species and the increase of cyanobacterial blooms have been identified as a major cause of biodiversity loss. The invasive cyanobacteria Raphidiopsis raciborskii a toxin-producing and bloom-forming species affecting local biodiversity and ecosystem services is currently expanding its range across Europe. We used species distribution models (SDMs) and regional bioclimatic environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation, to identify suitable areas for the colonization and survival of R. raciborskii, with special focus on the geographic extent of potential habitats in Northern Europe. SDMs predictions uncovered areas of high occurrence probability of R. raciborskii in locations where it has not been recorded yet, e.g. some areas in Central and Northern Europe. In the southeastern part of Sweden, areas of suitable climate for R. raciborskii corresponded with lakes of high concentrations of total phosphorus, increasing the risk of the species to thrive. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to predict areas at high risk of R. raciborskii colonization in Europe. The results from this study suggest several areas across Europe that would need monitoring programs to determine if the species is present or not, to be able to prevent its potential colonization and population growth. Regarding an undesirable microorganism like R. raciborskii, authorities may need to start information campaigns to avoid or minimize the spread.publishedVersio

Sperm competition in yellow dung flies: No consistent effect of sperm size

The male competition for fertilization that results from female multiple mating promotes the evolution of increased sperm numbers and can impact sperm morphology, with theory predicting that longer sperm can at times be advantageous during sperm competition. If so, males with longer sperm should sire more offspring than competitors with shorter sperm. Few studies have directly tested this prediction, and findings are inconsistent. Here we assessed whether longer sperm provide a competitive advantage in the yellow dung fly (Scathophaga stercoraria; Diptera: Scathophagidae). Initially, we let brothers with different temperature-mediated mean sperm lengths compete – thus minimizing confounding effects of genetic background – and found no clear advantage of longer sperm. We then used flies from lines subjected to bidirectional selection on phenoloxidase activity that had shown correlated evolutionary responses in sperm and female spermathecal duct lengths. This experiment also yielded no main effect of sperm size on siring success. Instead, there was a trend for a shorter-sperm advantage, but only when competing in females with longer spermathecal ducts. Our data corroborated many previously reported findings (last-male precedence, effects of copula duration and body size), suggesting our failure to find sperm size effects is not inherently due to our experimental protocols. We conclude that longer sperm are not competitively superior in yellow dung flies under most circumstances, and that, consistent with previous work, in this species competitive fertilization success is primarily determined by the relative numbers of sperm competing

Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management?

Heino, M., Baulier, L., Boukal, D. S., Ernande, B., Johnston, F. D., Mollet, F. M., Pardoe, H., Therkildsen, N. O., Uusi-Heikkilä, S., Vainikka, A., Arlinghaus, R., Dankel, D. J., Dunlop, E. S., Eikeset, A. M., Enberg, K., Engelhard G. H., Jørgensen, C., Laugen, A. T., Matsumura, S., Nusslé, S., Urbach, D., Whitlock, R., Rijnsdorp, A. D., and Dieckmann, U. 2013. Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management? - ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 707-721. Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, but may change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to "shifting” reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in "true” reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in more perilous directions, such that actual risks are greater than anticipated. Our qualitative analysis suggests that all commonly used reference points are susceptible to shifting through fisheries-induced evolution, including the limit and "precautionary” reference points for spawning-stock biomass, Blim and Bpa, and the target reference point for fishing mortality, F0.1. Our findings call for increased awareness of fisheries-induced changes and highlight the value of always basing reference points on adequately updated information, to capture all changes in the biological processes that drive fish population dynamic

Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management?

Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, butmay change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to "shifting" reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in "true" reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in more perilous directions, such that actual risks are greater than anticipated. Our qualitative analysis suggests that all commonly used reference points are susceptible to shifting through fisheries-induced evolution, including the limit and "precautionary" reference points for spawning-stock biomass, B-lim and B-pa, and the target reference point for fishing mortality, F-0.1. Our findings call for increased awareness of fisheries-induced changes and highlight the value of always basing reference points on adequately updated information, to capture all changes in the biological processes that drive fish population dynamics

Speeding Up Microevolution: The Effects of Increasing Temperature on Selection and Genetic Variance in a Wild Bird Population

The authors show that environmental variation may lead to a positive association between the annual strength of selection and expression of genetic variance in a wild bird population, which can speed up microevolution and have important consequences for how fast natural populations adapt to environmental changes

Within- and Among-Population Variation in Chytridiomycosis-Induced Mortality in the Toad Alytes obstetricans

Background Chytridiomycosis is a fungal disease linked to local and global extinctions of amphibians. Susceptibility to chytridiomycosis varies greatly between amphibian species, but little is known about between- and within-population variability. However, this kind of variability is the basis for the evolution of tolerance and resistance evolution to disease. Methodology/Principal Findings In a common garden experiment, we measured mortality after metamorphosis of Alytes obstetricans naturally infected with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Mortality rates differed significantly among populations and ranged from 27 to 90%. Within populations, mortality strongly depended on mass at and time through metamorphosis. Conclusions/Significance Although we cannot rule out that the differences observed resulted from differences in skin microbiota, different pathogen strains or environmental effects experienced by the host or the pathogen prior to the start of the experiment, we argue that genetic differences between populations are a likely source of at least part of this variation. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing differences in survival between and within populations under constant laboratory conditions. Assuming that some of this intraspecific variation has a genetic basis, this may suggest that there is the potential for the evolution of resistance or tolerance, which might allow population persistence

Variation in Size and Growth of the Great Scallop Pecten maximus along a Latitudinal Gradient

Understanding the relationship between growth and temperature will aid in the evaluation of thermal stress and threats to ectotherms in the context of anticipated climate changes. Most Pecten maximus scallops living at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere have a larger maximum body size than individuals further south, a common pattern among many ectotherms. We investigated differences in daily shell growth among scallop populations along the Northeast Atlantic coast from Spain to Norway. This study design allowed us to address precisely whether the asymptotic size observed along a latitudinal gradient, mainly defined by a temperature gradient, results from differences in annual or daily growth rates, or a difference in the length of the growing season. We found that low annual growth rates in northern populations are not due to low daily growth values, but to the smaller number of days available each year to achieve growth compared to the south. We documented a decrease in the annual number of growth days with age regardless of latitude. However, despite initially lower annual growth performances in terms of growing season length and growth rate, differences in asymptotic size as a function of latitude resulted from persistent annual growth performances in the north and sharp declines in the south. Our measurements of daily growth rates throughout life in a long-lived ectothermic species provide new insight into spatio-temporal variations in growth dynamics and growing season length that cannot be accounted for by classical growth models that only address asymptotic size and annual growth rate

Elevational Patterns of Species Richness, Range and Body Size for Spiny Frogs

Quantifying spatial patterns of species richness is a core problem in biodiversity theory. Spiny frogs of the subfamily Painae (Anura: Dicroglossidae) are widespread, but endemic to Asia. Using spiny frog distribution and body size data, and a digital elevation model data set we explored altitudinal patterns of spiny frog richness and quantified the effect of area on the richness pattern over a large altitudinal gradient from 0–5000 m a.s.l. We also tested two hypotheses: (i) the Rapoport's altitudinal effect is valid for the Painae, and (ii) Bergmann's clines are present in spiny frogs. The species richness of Painae across four different altitudinal band widths (100 m, 200 m, 300 m and 400 m) all showed hump-shaped patterns along altitudinal gradient. The altitudinal changes in species richness of the Paini and Quasipaini tribes further confirmed this finding, while the peak of Quasipaini species richness occurred at lower elevations than the maxima of Paini. The area did not explain a significant amount of variation in total, nor Paini species richness, but it did explain variation in Quasipaini. Five distinct groups across altitudinal gradient were found. Species altitudinal ranges did not expand with an increase in the midpoints of altitudinal ranges. A significant negative correlation between body size and elevation was exhibited. Our findings demonstrate that Rapoport's altitudinal rule is not a compulsory attribute of spiny frogs and also suggest that Bergmann's rule is not generally applicable to amphibians. The study highlights a need to explore the underlying mechanisms of species richness patterns, particularly for amphibians in macroecology