Fast Ensemble Smoothing

Smoothing is essential to many oceanographic, meteorological and hydrological applications. The interval smoothing problem updates all desired states within a time interval using all available observations. The fixed-lag smoothing problem updates only a fixed number of states prior to the observation at current time. The fixed-lag smoothing problem is, in general, thought to be computationally faster than a fixed-interval smoother, and can be an appropriate approximation for long interval-smoothing problems. In this paper, we use an ensemble-based approach to fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing, and synthesize two algorithms. The first algorithm produces a linear time solution to the interval smoothing problem with a fixed factor, and the second one produces a fixed-lag solution that is independent of the lag length. Identical-twin experiments conducted with the Lorenz-95 model show that for lag lengths approximately equal to the error doubling time, or for long intervals the proposed methods can provide significant computational savings. These results suggest that ensemble methods yield both fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing solutions that cost little additional effort over filtering and model propagation, in the sense that in practical ensemble application the additional increment is a small fraction of either filtering or model propagation costs. We also show that fixed-interval smoothing can perform as fast as fixed-lag smoothing and may be advantageous when memory is not an issue

Morphing Ensemble Kalman Filters

A new type of ensemble filter is proposed, which combines an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with the ideas of morphing and registration from image processing. This results in filters suitable for nonlinear problems whose solutions exhibit moving coherent features, such as thin interfaces in wildfire modeling. The ensemble members are represented as the composition of one common state with a spatial transformation, called registration mapping, plus a residual. A fully automatic registration method is used that requires only gridded data, so the features in the model state do not need to be identified by the user. The morphing EnKF operates on a transformed state consisting of the registration mapping and the residual. Essentially, the morphing EnKF uses intermediate states obtained by morphing instead of linear combinations of the states.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Added DDDAS references to the introductio

Water issues in Hawaii: public attitudes in 2004 and 2010

This report examines Hawai‘i residents' awareness of, attitudes about, and actions taken concerning water quality. "Water quality" is a measure of the suitability of water for a particular use, such as drinking, recreation, agricultural irrigation, or protection and maintenance of aquatic life

On dimension reduction in Gaussian filters

A priori dimension reduction is a widely adopted technique for reducing the computational complexity of stationary inverse problems. In this setting, the solution of an inverse problem is parameterized by a low-dimensional basis that is often obtained from the truncated Karhunen-Loeve expansion of the prior distribution. For high-dimensional inverse problems equipped with smoothing priors, this technique can lead to drastic reductions in parameter dimension and significant computational savings. In this paper, we extend the concept of a priori dimension reduction to non-stationary inverse problems, in which the goal is to sequentially infer the state of a dynamical system. Our approach proceeds in an offline-online fashion. We first identify a low-dimensional subspace in the state space before solving the inverse problem (the offline phase), using either the method of "snapshots" or regularized covariance estimation. Then this subspace is used to reduce the computational complexity of various filtering algorithms - including the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, and ensemble Kalman filter - within a novel subspace-constrained Bayesian prediction-and-update procedure (the online phase). We demonstrate the performance of our new dimension reduction approach on various numerical examples. In some test cases, our approach reduces the dimensionality of the original problem by orders of magnitude and yields up to two orders of magnitude in computational savings

Inpatient versus outpatient acute venous thromboembolism management: Trends and postacute healthcare utilization from 2011 to 2018

Background - Acute outpatient management of venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT), is perceived to be as safe as inpatient management in some settings. How widely this strategy is used is not well documented. Methods and Results - Using MarketScan administrative claims databases for years 2011 through 2018, we identified patients with International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes indicating incident VTE and trends in the use of acute outpatient management. We also evaluated healthcare utilization and hospitalized bleeding events in the 6 months following the incident VTE event. A total of 200 346 patients with VTE were included, of whom 50% had evidence of PE. Acute outpatient management was used for 18% of those with PE and 57% of those with DVT only, and for both DVT and PE its use increased from 2011 to 2018. Outpatient management was less prevalent among patients with cancer, higher Charlson comorbidity index scores, and whose primary treatment was warfarin as compared with a direct oral anticoagulant. Healthcare utilization in the 6 months following the incident VTE event was generally lower among patients managed acutely as outpatients, regardless of initial presentation. Acute outpatient management was associated with lower hazard ratios of incident bleeding risk for both patients who initially presented with PE (0.71 [95% CI, 0.61, 0.82]) and DVT only (0.59 [95% CI, 0.54, 0.64]). Conclusions - Outpatient management of VTE is increasing. In the present analysis, it was associated with lower subsequent healthcare utilization and fewer bleeding events. However, this may be because healthier patients were managed on an outpatient basis

The nature of the pandemic:Exploring the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic upon recreation visitor behaviors and experiences in parks and protected areas

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected parks and protected areas and overall recreation visitation across the United States. While outdoor recreation has been demonstrated to be beneficial, especially during a pandemic, the resulting increase in recreation visitation raises concerns regarding the broader influence of social, situational, ecological, and behavioral factors upon overall visitor experiences. This study investigated the extent to which recreation visitors’ behaviors and experiences have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic within the White Mountain National Forest (WMNF). A modified drop-off pick-up survey method was employed to collect population-level data from WMNF visitors from June to August of 2020 (n=317), at the height of the pandemic. Results from this mixed-method study suggest social factors (e.g., crowding and conflict), situational factors (e.g., access and closures), ecological factors (e.g., vegetation damage), behavioral factors (e.g., substitution), and sociodemographic factors (e.g., gender and income) significantly influenced overall visitor decision-making and experience quality within the WMNF. For example, more than one-third of visitors indicated the pandemic had either a major or severe impact upon their WMNF recreation experience. A more nuanced investigation of qualitative data determined that the majority of pandemic-related recreation impacts revolved around the themes of social impacts, general negative recreation impacts, situational and ecological impacts, and behavioral adaptation impacts. Moreover, historically marginalized populations (e.g., low-income households and females) within the sample reported significantly higher recreation experience impacts during the pandemic. This study demonstrates the influence of the pandemic upon outdoor recreation visitor experiences and behaviors and considers outdoor recreation as a central component within the broader social-ecological systems framework. This study demonstrates the influence of the pandemic upon outdoor recreation visitor experiences and behaviors and considers resource users a central component within the broader social-ecological systems conceptual framework. MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS: This study found that during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, social, situational, ecological, behavioral, and sociodemographic factors significantly influenced overall visitor decision-making andexperience quality: · Social and general recreation impacts were most common, with approximately 56% of the sample reporting these issues. · Results suggest significant crowding and conflict impacts stemmed from interactions between in-state and out-of-state visitors, largely based upon perceived violations of pandemic protocols. · Moreover, historically marginalized populations stated unique recreation impacts during the pandemic. For instance, visitors from low-income households reported significantly less substitution options as opposed to high-income visitors. · Female visitors perceived significantly more pandemic-related conflict than male visitors. Study findings suggest visitor crowding and conflict should be prioritized by resource managers, especially amongst historically marginalized populations. Resource managers should consider adopting a broader social-ecological systems approach to parks and protected areas management, particularly during a global pandemic

Autoimmune disease and risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism

Background - The risk of pregnancy-related mortality in the United States has nearly doubled since 1990, with venous thromboembolism (VTE) accounting for approximately 10% of these deaths. Objectives - The objective of this study was to assess whether preexisting autoimmune disease is a risk factor for postpartum VTE. Methods - Using the MarketScan Commercial and Medicare Supplemental administrative databases, a retrospective cohort study analyzed whether postpartum persons with autoimmune disease had a higher risk of postpartum VTE incidence than postpartum persons without autoimmune disease. Using International Classification of Diseases codes, we identified 757,303 individuals of childbearing age who had a valid delivery date with at least 12 weeks of follow-up. Results - Individuals were, on average, 30.7 years old (SD, 5.4), and 3.7% (N = 27,997 of 757,303) of them had evidence of preexisting autoimmune disease. In covariate-adjusted models, postpartum persons with preexisting autoimmune disease had higher rates of postpartum VTE than postpartum persons without autoimmune disease (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.07-1.64). When analyzed by individual autoimmune disease, those with systemic lupus erythematosus (HR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.47-4.21) and Crohn’s disease (HR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.34-4.64) were at an elevated risk of postpartum VTE compared with those without autoimmune disease. Conclusion - Autoimmune disease was associated with a higher rate of postpartum VTE, with evidence that the association was most pronounced among individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus and Crohn’s disease. These findings suggest that postpartum persons of childbearing age with autoimmune disease may require more monitoring and prophylactic care after delivery to prevent potentially fatal VTE events

A wildland fire model with data assimilation

A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be approximated from prior measurements of wildfires. An ensemble Kalman filter technique with regularization is then used to assimilate temperatures measured at selected points into running wildfire simulations. The assimilation technique is able to modify the simulations to track the measurements correctly even if the simulations were started with an erroneous ignition location that is quite far away from the correct one.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures; minor revision January 2008. Original version available from http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/report