System Dynamics in Transition Management : Participative modeling for transitioning towards a circular construction material industry

Climate change and biodiversity degradation are only two of humanity's major social and environmental issues. Scientists, global policy experts, and the general public are increasingly concluding that traditional interventions to reduce un-sustainability are inadequate and that change in all sectors of society is needed. Change processes of societal innovations are complex, non-linear, and dynamic transitions, for which scientific research increased in recent years. However, the concept of transitions and the proper role of science in promoting change is still debated. In this dissertation, I am especially interested in using scientific methods to understand drivers and barriers of societal innovation, engaging with societal actors, and increasing the effectiveness of interventions. To test the adequacy of System Dynamics modeling as a tool to support transition management, I conduct a case study in the construction material industry in Switzerland. The construction material industry is a traditional industry sector that faces public pressure to change dominant practices towards more sustainability. Yet recycling activities stagnate, and the potential of secondary resources is not utilized. I use six participative modeling workshops with public policy experts and seven interviews with extraction, disposal, recycling companies to develop a quantitative simulation model. This simulation model allows for virtual experiments to accelerate the transition of Switzerland's mineral construction material industry towards a circular economy. In this simulation model, I explain how the dynamic interaction between public policy and industry actors complicates the management of natural resource stocks. The co-production of extraction and disposal policies emerges as the central structure that forms a barrier to a circular economy. These spatial planning policies increase the incentive for companies to extract resources to generate volume for waste disposal. The resulting oversupply of primary resources locks out the use of secondary resources. I suggest experimenting with cooperative spatial planning between urban resource consumers and the hinterlands as a resource supplier to overcome this barrier. This cooperative spatial planning format is a leverage point for the local utilization of secondary resources without increasing material transports between regions. Based on this case study, I discuss integrating system dynamics in applied research for sustainability transitions, providing an empirical perspective on the intersection of System Dynamics (SD) and Transition Management (TM). Beyond the empirical findings for the governance of the transition of the industry sector in the case study, I focus on the methodological contribution of SD for TM. The findings are twofold. Firstly, by documenting participants' mental models during the participative modeling workshops, I gain insights into their learning process. These insights are essential to understand common misperceptions about the governance of the industry sector. For example, identifying the informal policy of extending gravel licenses rather than foreclosing after the expiration of the licensed duration was a critical insight. Furthermore, the discussion surrounding this policy clarified the role of adaptive expectations for the uptake of secondary resources. If new licensing processes do not consider the potential of secondary resources, a structural oversupply of primary resources results. Secondly, SD modeling adds operational guidance to the identification of fields for governance experimentation. These fields for governance experimentation are presented as more than just policy recommendations. They intend to induce more systemic changes, e.g., move from local spatial planning towards interregional spatial planning concepts. The insight that such systemic changes are necessary results from a formal model that clarified the scale of the problem (e.g., interregional arbitrage inhibits local recycling initiatives) and scope for required solutions (interregional spatial planning instead of local policy adjustments). I conclude that SD adds to the orientation phase of TM processes by providing an operational toolbox to engage with policy-relevant actors in a learning process and point at fields for experimentation. However, I also identify that the formal SD perspective in parts inhibited more daring and radical propositions for experimentation. While some might argue this is a weakness, I respond that SD modeling provides feasible recommendations based on identifying leverage points for long-term change.Doktorgradsavhandlin

Closing the mineral construction material cycle – An endogenous perspective on barriers in transition

Construction and demolition waste (CDW) constitutes a highly voluminous urban waste stream with significant potential for circular mineral construction material usage. This paper uses participatory system dynamics modeling with relevant actors from different public policy and industry sectors to a) to identify structural barriers to the uptake of secondary resource utilization; b) design and test policies administrative (spatial planning, ownership), fiscal (extraction levy, disposal fee) and soft (lighthouse projects) policies and c) discuss the feasibility of implementing these with policies in the political and legislative context of Switzerland. We find practice relevant policy insights, such as the role of distributed control of land use policies resulting in a co-evolutionary lock-in to primary resources consumptions. Policy interventions need to establish new forms of collaboration between regional actors, as hinterland are specializing as resource suppliers for urban regions. Without coordinated interventions that address structural imbalances of material flow, arbitrage effects with other regions render policies ineffective. From a methodological perspective we find that simulation and participatory modeling improves the efficacy of transition interventions as we provide a structural problem analysis as a tool for Stakeholder reflexivity.publishedVersio

Genesis and impulsive evolution of the 2017 September 10 coronal mass ejection

The X8.2 event of 10 September 2017 provides unique observations to study the genesis, magnetic morphology and impulsive dynamics of a very fast CME. Combining GOES-16/SUVI and SDO/AIA EUV imagery, we identify a hot ($T\approx 10-15$ MK) bright rim around a quickly expanding cavity, embedded inside a much larger CME shell ($T\approx 1-2$ MK). The CME shell develops from a dense set of large AR loops ($\gtrsim$0.5 $R_s$), and seamlessly evolves into the CME front observed in LASCO C2. The strong lateral overexpansion of the CME shell acts as a piston initiating the fast EUV wave. The hot cavity rim is demonstrated to be a manifestation of the dominantly poloidal flux and frozen-in plasma added to the rising flux rope by magnetic reconnection in the current sheet beneath. The same structure is later observed as the core of the white light CME, challenging the traditional interpretation of the CME three-part morphology. The large amount of added magnetic flux suggested by these observations explains the extreme accelerations of the radial and lateral expansion of the CME shell and cavity, all reaching values of $5 - 10$ km s$^{-2}$. The acceleration peaks occur simultaneously with the first RHESSI $100-300$ keV hard X-ray burst of the associated flare, further underlining the importance of the reconnection process for the impulsive CME evolution. Finally, the much higher radial propagation speed of the flux rope in relation to the CME shell causes a distinct deformation of the white light CME front and shock.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Mitigation of conductor line galloping by a direct cable-connection to non-conductive composite power pylons

Steel lattice towers with suspended insulator strings are typically used to carry high-voltage overhead transmission lines. The installation of non-conductive power pylons made of glass fibre reinforced plastics enables a direct cable-pylon connection, as the composite structure acts as an unibody insulator. At the same time, wind-induced vibrations, such as the severe cable vibration phenomenon galloping, will consequently be directly transferred to the slender composite mast structure, potentially leading to extensive damage. The aim of the study is therefore to investigate the galloping behaviour of iced conductor lines with regard to different cable support conditions. Furthermore, additional damping in the composite power pylon structure is assumed to mitigate conductor line galloping and therefore reduce the risk of phase flash-overs between adjacent conductor lines. A numerical galloping simulation is carried out in order to evaluate the effect of a rigid cable-pylon connection with enhanced damping properties on the cable vibration amplitudes. A pylon-cable system, consisting of 3×300 m spans, is investigated. It was found that the support conditions of the conductor lines have a significant influence on the galloping mode, the vibration amplitudes and the orientation of the characteristic galloping ellipse. The addition of damping to the pylon decreases the vibration amplitudes slightly and leads to a re-orientation of the galloping ellipse

Determinants of vaccine hesitancy in Switzerland: study protocol of a mixed-methods national research programme

Vaccine hesitancy is a complex public health issue referring to concerns about the safety, efficacy or need for vaccination. Relatively little is known about vaccine hesitancy in Switzerland. This ongoing study (2017-2021) focuses on biomedical and complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) providers and their patients since healthcare professionals play important roles in vaccination decision-making. This national research programme seeks to assess the sociocultural determinants of vaccine hesitancy regarding childhood and human papillomavirus vaccines in Switzerland. We aim to provide a detailed characterisation of vaccine hesitancy, including CAM and biomedical perspectives, patient-provider interactions, and sociocultural factors, to establish the mediating effects of vaccine hesitancy on underimmunisation, and to design an intervention to improve vaccination communication and counselling among physicians, parents and adolescents.; Our transdisciplinary team employs a sequential exploratory mixed-methods study design. We have established a network of more than 150 medical providers across Switzerland, including more than 40 CAM practitioners. For the qualitative component, we conduct interviews with parents, youth, and biomedical and CAM providers and observations of vaccination consultations and school vaccination information sessions. For the quantitative component, a sample of 1350 parents of young children and 722 young adults (15-26 years) and their medical providers respond to questionnaires. We measure vaccine hesitancy with the Parent Attitudes about Childhood Vaccines 15-item survey and review vaccination certificates to assess vaccination status. We administer additional questions based on findings from qualitative research, addressing communication with medical providers, vaccine information sources and perceptions of risk control vis-à-vis vaccine-preventable diseases. The questionnaires capture sociodemographics, political views, religion and spirituality, and moral foundations.; The study was approved by the local ethics committee. The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated to healthcare professionals, researchers and the public via conferences and public presentations

Psychosocial interventions for self-harm in adults

Background: Self-harm (SH; intentional self-poisoning or self-injury) is common, often repeated, and associated with suicide. This is an update of a broader Cochrane review first published in 1998, previously updated in 1999, and now split into three separate reviews. This review focuses on psychosocial interventions in adults who engage in self-harm. Objectives: To assess the effects of specific psychosocial treatments versus treatment as usual, enhanced usual care or other forms of psychological therapy, in adults following SH. Search methods: The Cochrane Depression, Anxiety and Neurosis Group (CCDAN) trials coordinator searched the CCDAN Clinical Trials Register (to 29 April 2015). This register includes relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from: the Cochrane Library (all years), MEDLINE (1950 to date), EMBASE (1974 to date), and PsycINFO (1967 to date). Selection criteria: We included RCTs comparing psychosocial treatments with treatment as usual (TAU), enhanced usual care (EUC) or alternative treatments in adults with a recent (within six months) episode of SH resulting in presentation to clinical services. Data collection and analysis: We used Cochrane's standard methodological procedures

System Dynamics in Transition Management : Participative modeling for transitioning towards a circular construction material industry

Climate change and biodiversity degradation are only two of humanity's major social and environmental issues. Scientists, global policy experts, and the general public are increasingly concluding that traditional interventions to reduce un-sustainability are inadequate and that change in all sectors of society is needed. Change processes of societal innovations are complex, non-linear, and dynamic transitions, for which scientific research increased in recent years. However, the concept of transitions and the proper role of science in promoting change is still debated. In this dissertation, I am especially interested in using scientific methods to understand drivers and barriers of societal innovation, engaging with societal actors, and increasing the effectiveness of interventions. To test the adequacy of System Dynamics modeling as a tool to support transition management, I conduct a case study in the construction material industry in Switzerland. The construction material industry is a traditional industry sector that faces public pressure to change dominant practices towards more sustainability. Yet recycling activities stagnate, and the potential of secondary resources is not utilized. I use six participative modeling workshops with public policy experts and seven interviews with extraction, disposal, recycling companies to develop a quantitative simulation model. This simulation model allows for virtual experiments to accelerate the transition of Switzerland's mineral construction material industry towards a circular economy. In this simulation model, I explain how the dynamic interaction between public policy and industry actors complicates the management of natural resource stocks. The co-production of extraction and disposal policies emerges as the central structure that forms a barrier to a circular economy. These spatial planning policies increase the incentive for companies to extract resources to generate volume for waste disposal. The resulting oversupply of primary resources locks out the use of secondary resources. I suggest experimenting with cooperative spatial planning between urban resource consumers and the hinterlands as a resource supplier to overcome this barrier. This cooperative spatial planning format is a leverage point for the local utilization of secondary resources without increasing material transports between regions. Based on this case study, I discuss integrating system dynamics in applied research for sustainability transitions, providing an empirical perspective on the intersection of System Dynamics (SD) and Transition Management (TM). Beyond the empirical findings for the governance of the transition of the industry sector in the case study, I focus on the methodological contribution of SD for TM. The findings are twofold. Firstly, by documenting participants' mental models during the participative modeling workshops, I gain insights into their learning process. These insights are essential to understand common misperceptions about the governance of the industry sector. For example, identifying the informal policy of extending gravel licenses rather than foreclosing after the expiration of the licensed duration was a critical insight. Furthermore, the discussion surrounding this policy clarified the role of adaptive expectations for the uptake of secondary resources. If new licensing processes do not consider the potential of secondary resources, a structural oversupply of primary resources results. Secondly, SD modeling adds operational guidance to the identification of fields for governance experimentation. These fields for governance experimentation are presented as more than just policy recommendations. They intend to induce more systemic changes, e.g., move from local spatial planning towards interregional spatial planning concepts. The insight that such systemic changes are necessary results from a formal model that clarified the scale of the problem (e.g., interregional arbitrage inhibits local recycling initiatives) and scope for required solutions (interregional spatial planning instead of local policy adjustments). I conclude that SD adds to the orientation phase of TM processes by providing an operational toolbox to engage with policy-relevant actors in a learning process and point at fields for experimentation. However, I also identify that the formal SD perspective in parts inhibited more daring and radical propositions for experimentation. While some might argue this is a weakness, I respond that SD modeling provides feasible recommendations based on identifying leverage points for long-term change

Closing the mineral construction material cycle – An endogenous perspective on barriers in transition

Construction and demolition waste (CDW) constitutes a highly voluminous urban waste stream with significant potential for circular mineral construction material usage. This paper uses participatory system dynamics modeling with relevant actors from different public policy and industry sectors to a) to identify structural barriers to the uptake of secondary resource utilization; b) design and test policies administrative (spatial planning, ownership), fiscal (extraction levy, disposal fee) and soft (lighthouse projects) policies and c) discuss the feasibility of implementing these with policies in the political and legislative context of Switzerland. We find practice relevant policy insights, such as the role of distributed control of land use policies resulting in a co-evolutionary lock-in to primary resources consumptions. Policy interventions need to establish new forms of collaboration between regional actors, as hinterland are specializing as resource suppliers for urban regions. Without coordinated interventions that address structural imbalances of material flow, arbitrage effects with other regions render policies ineffective. From a methodological perspective we find that simulation and participatory modeling improves the efficacy of transition interventions as we provide a structural problem analysis as a tool for Stakeholder reflexivity