Population Ageing:The Timebomb that Isn't?

Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes argue that current measures of population ageing are misleading and that the numbers of dependent older people in the UK and other countries have actually been falling in recent year

Mortality in Catalonia in the context of the third, fourth and future phases of the epidemiological transition theory

In the period 1960-2000, male and female life expectancy increased by 8,2 and 10,5 years, respectively, in Catalonia, one of Spain’s Autonomous Regions, to one of the highest in the world. Initially, most gains were due to lower infant mortality, but as cardiovascular diseases declined this later shifted to advanced ages. Between the mid-1980s and early 1990s life expectancy improvements stagnated as the mortality risk from traffic accidents and HIV/AIDS in young adults increased. Both the age-delay in old-age mortality and the simultaneous influence of behaviour and life style reflect distinct aspects of the fourth stage of the epidemiological transition. This analysis quantifies the age and cause of death contributions to changes and sex-differences in life expectancy in Catalonia. It subsequently compares the most recent life table for women with the Duchene-Wunsch limited life table to estimate the potential gain in life expectancy when all deaths would be ageing-related and on which ages these improvements would fall.Catalonia, cause of death, epidemiologic transition, epidemiological transition, gender, limits of life, mortality

Viudedad en la España del siglo XX : La evolución histórica de la población viuda y sus determinantes demográficos

Durante el siglo XX el perfil general de la población viuda ha cambiado sustancialmente. La imagen que tenemos de que son sobre todo mujeres de edad avanzada o muy avanzada no es tan representativa de la realidad de principios del siglo pasado: hace 100 años era más común encontrar personas jóvenes cuyos cónyuges habían fallecido. Análogamente, aunque en aquel tiempo las edades avanzadas también estaban sobrerrepresentadas en la población viuda, no existían tantos viudos de una edad avanzada como en la actualidad. Finalmente, si bien durante este periodo había más viudas que viudos, la ratio es aún más sesgada a comienzos del siglo XXI. Utilizando datos censales, del MNP y de otras fuentes se proporciona una descripción detallada de la evolución histórica de la población viuda, de los determinantes directos que están detrás de su tendencia (la mortalidad, las segundas nupcias y la migración) así como de varios determinantes indirectos.The profile of the widowed population has changed substantially over the course of the 20th century. While today we have in mind an old or very old woman, this is not representative of the early 20th century: 100 years ago it was more common to find young people whose spouses had died. Similarly, while Advanced ages were also over-represented in the widowed population, there were not as many widows of very old age as there are in the present. Finally, while there were more widows than widowers in the past, the ratio is much more skewed today. Population census, Vital Statistics and other data sourced were used to provide a detailed description of the historical trend of the widowed population. This is followed by an analysis of the direct determinants that are behind the trend: mortality of the married and widowed, remarriage and emigration and immigration of widows, as well as several indirect determinants.Le profil de la population des veuves et des veufs a changé de façon substantielle au cours du XXème siècle. L'image que nous en avons pour la période récente est d'une femme très âgée, mais ce modèle n'est pas représentatif pour le début du siècle. En effet il y a 100 ans il y avait un grand nombre de persones jeunes dont l'époux ou l'épouse était décédé. De façon analogue, dans le passé la proportion de personnes veuves s'élevait aussi avec l'âge, cependant le nombre de veufs de grand âge n'était pas aussi important que de nos jours. Finalement, dans le passé il y avait plus de veuves que de veufs, mais cette relation est bien plus inégalitaire actuellement. On utilise dans ce travail des données de recensement, du mouvement naturel de la population ainsi que d'autres sources dans le but d'offrir une description détaillée de l'évolution historique de la population veuve, de décrire les déterminants immédiats de son évolution (la mortalité, les remariages, les migrations) mais aussi de quelques déterminants indirects

Current characteristics of living arrangements following bereavement in Europe and the US

Aquest treball es va presentar a la Population Association of America. 2009 Annual Meeting. Detroit (Michigan), 30 d'abril-2 de maig de 2009.The study of living arrangements after bereavement is not as extensively covered as postdivorce household trajectories in family sociology, although this is changing as nontraditional living arrangements are becoming more common. We already know that widows prefer to stay in their own home because they want to maintain their (newly found) independence and men often perceive that remarriage brings with it more benefits than remaining widowed. However, other variables such as educational level and labour force participation or differences between countries have been less studied. This is what this paper aims to do using census data from IPUMS-International. Results show that living arrangement types are age and sex dependent: older widows are more likely to live alone, younger widows with their children but younger widowers with a new partner or with their parents. Widow(er)s in one-person households are on average older, economically inactive and fewer are homeowners. Living with parents is associated with being younger and unemployed, living with children with being employed, living with a partner or children with low education and living alone or with parents with higher education. Regarding country-specific differences: the French are more likely to live alone or with a partner, the Spanish to reside with children or parents, while few Greek widow(er)s live with a partner.L'estudi de les formes de convivència després de la viduïtat no s'ha estudiat tant com les trajectòries familiars després del divorci, encara que això està canviant a mesura que les formes tradicionals de vida "menys tradicionals" són cada vegada més comunes. Ja sabem que les vídues prefereixen quedar-se a casa perquè volen mantenir la seva (acabada de descobrir) independència i en canvi, els homes sovint perceben que un nou matrimoni comporta més beneficis que romanent vidus. Malgrat això, altres variables d'anàlisi com el nivell educatiu i la participació en la vida laboral o les diferències entre països, han estat menys estudiades. Aquest és l'objectiu de l'article, utilitzant les dades del cens de IPUMSInternational. Els resultats mostren que les formes de convivència depenen de l'edat i el sexe: les vídues més grans tenen més probabilitats de viure soles però les vídues més joves amb els seus fills, tenen més probabilitat de viure amb una nova parella o amb els seus pares. Vidus/es en les llars unipersonals són de mitjana, més grans, propietaris d'habitatges, i econòmicament inactius. Viure amb els pares s'associa amb ser més jove i desocupat; viure amb els fills en tenir ocupació; viure amb una parella o fills amb un baix nivell educatiu; i viure sol o amb pares amb un nivell educatiu superior. En quant a les diferències específiques de cada país: els francesos són més propensos a viure sols o amb un company, els espanyols a residir amb els nens o amb els pares, mentre que els grecs vidus/es, viuen en parella.El estudio de las formas de convivencia después de la viudedad no se ha estudiado tanto como las trayectorias familiares después del divorcio, aunque está cambiando a medida que las formas tradicionales de vida "menos tradicionales" son cada vez más comunes. Ya sabemos que las viudas prefieren quedarse en casa porque quieren mantener su (recién descubierta) independencia y en cambio, los hombres a menudo perciben que un nuevo matrimonio conlleva más beneficios que permaneciendo viudos. Sin embargo, otras variables de análisis como el nivel educativo y la participación en la vida laboral o las diferencias entre países, han sido menos estudiadas. Este es el objetivo del artículo, utilizando los datos del censo de IPUMS-International. Los resultados muestran que las formas de convivencia dependen de la edad y del sexo: las viudas mayores tienen más probabilidades de vivir solas pero las viudas más jóvenes con sus hijos, tienen más probabilidad de vivir con una nueva pareja o con sus padres. Viudos/as en los hogares unipersonales son de media, mayores, propietarios de viviendas y económicamente inactivos. Vivir con los padres se asocia con ser más joven y desocupado; vivir con los hijos al tener empleo; vivir con una pareja o hijos con un bajo nivel educativo; y vivir solo o con padres con un nivel educativo superior. En cuanto a las diferencias específicas de cada país: los franceses son más propensos a vivir solos o con un compañero, los españoles a residir con los niños o con los padres, mientras que los griegos viudos/as, viven en pareja

Trends in custody arrangements in Spain since the divorce reform of 2005

El treball es va presentar en el Programme Colloque:"Pères en solitaires: paternités contemporaines et nouvelles trajectoires familiales", com a ponència, titulada "Legal custody arrangements of separated parents in Spain" (http://paternites.hypotheses.org/). Centre Norbert Elias, Marsella, 29 i 30 de novembre de 2012.In 1981 Spain was one of the last countries in Europe to legalize divorce. Accompanying the transition from dictatorship to democracy were shifts in family laws and demographic behaviors that included the legalisation of divorce. However, the initial Divorce Law was quite restrictive and legal separation and divorce were still relatively uncommon until the 1990s. Subsequent pressure to speed up the legal procedure led to the Spanish Divorce Reform of 2005 that facilitated the divorce process, stressed the co-responsibility of parents towards their children and legally regulating shared custody. Using the General Council of the Judiciary's data on "Decrees of separations, divorces and annulments", this working paper provides a description of the characteristics of the spouses, marriage duration and separation process (1996-2010) and analyses the patterns and characteristics of legal custody arrangements (2007-2011). Results showed that in 2011 (2005) joint custody was awarded in 12% (3%) of cases, father 5% (3%) and mother sole custody 82% (94%). Logistic regression showed that age at marriage, spousal age difference, duration of divorce application, the husband being the divorce claimant and a marital separation with consent favoured either sole father and/or joint custody at the expense of sole custody for the mother.A Espanya, junt a la transició democràtica, es van produir importants canvis en les lleis que afectaven a la família i als comportaments demogràfics, entre ells, la legalització del divorci, al 1981 (un dels últims països d'Europa en legalitzar el divorci). Malgrat això, aquesta llei era bastant restrictiva i la separació legal i el divorci van ser relativament poc comuns fins a la dècada dels noranta. Posteriorment, la pressió per accelerar el procediment legal va portar a la seva reforma amb la Llei 15/2005 que va facilitar el procés de divorci, va impulsar la co-responsabilitat dels pares cap als seus fills i va regular legalment la custòdia compartida. A partir dels Butlletins estadístics de sentències de separació, divorci i nul·litat del Consejo General del Poder Judicial, aquest document ofereix una descripció de les característiques dels cònjuges, la durada del matrimoni i el procés de separació (1996-2010) i les anàlisis dels patrons i característiques dels acords legals de custòdia (2007-2011). Els resultats mostren que al 2011 (entre parèntesis, dades de 2005) la custòdia compartida va ser atorgada, en el 12% dels casos (3% el 2005); només al pare, en un 5% (3%); i, a la mare, en un 82% (94%). La regressió logística va mostrar que l'edat per contreure matrimoni, les diferències d'edat entre els cònjuges, la durada de la sol·licitud de divorci, si el marit és el demandant del divorci, si el divorci/separació era consensuat, afavoria la custòdia exclusiva al pare o bé compartida, a costa de la custòdia exclusiva per a la mare.En España, junto a la transición democrática, se produjeron relevantes cambios en las leyes que afectaban a la familia y a los comportamientos demográficos, entre ellos, la legalización del divorcio, en 1981 (uno de los últimos países de Europa en legalizarlo). Sin embargo, esta ley era bastante restrictiva y la separación legal y el divorcio fueron relativamente poco comunes hasta la década de los noventa. Posteriormente, la presión para acelerar el procedimiento legal llevó a su reforma con la Ley 15/2005 que facilitó el proceso de divorcio, impulsó la co-responsabilidad de los padres hacia sus hijos y reguló legalmente la custodia compartida. Usando los Boletines estadísticos de sentencias de separación, divorcio y nulidad del Consejo General del Poder Judicial, este documento ofrece una descripción de las características de los cónyuges, la duración del matrimonio y el proceso de separación (1996-2010) y los análisis de los patrones y características de los acuerdos legales de custodia (2007-2011). Los resultados muestran que en 2011 (entre paréntesis, datos de 2005) la custodia compartida fue otorgado en el 12% de los casos (3% en 2005), sólo al padre en un 5% (3%) y, a la madre, en un 82% (94%). La regresión logística mostró que la edad para contraer matrimonio, las diferencias de edad entre los cónyuges, la duración de la solicitud de divorcio, si el marido es el demandante del divorcio, si el divorcio/separación era consensuado, favorecía la custodia al padre único o compartida, a costa de la custodia exclusiva para la madre

Exploring the boundaries of molecular modeling : a study of nanochannels and transmembrane proteins

Many interesting physical and biological phenomena can be investigated using molecular modeling techniques, either theoretically or by using computer simulation methods, such as molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. Due to the increasing power of computer processing units, these simulation methods allowed over the last decades for the dramatic increase in knowledge of the behavior of systems at the molecular level. In the first part of this thesis the foundations of molecular modeling techniques are revisited. Empirical force fields and the physical background between thermodynamics and individual particles are discussed. The applicability of molecular modeling techniques is shown by two representative cases. First, the molecular dynamics simulation method is used to understand the dynamics of specific proteins at the molecular level. This is important, because drug design efforts are increasingly laborious, especially with the paucity of available structural information. Therefore, computational methods are helpful in predicting the structure of proteins, and, more importantly, to predict conformational dynamics leading to protein activation. To that end a specific asthma-related protein, the beta2-adrenergic receptor, is investigated in atomistic detail together with the molecules that can bind to the protein to cause activation or inhibition. Clearly, molecular dynamics simulations are an important tool to provide further knowledge on the activation pathway of this protein. Although these all-atom simulations give some insight on the dynamics, the computational demand does not allow for systems much larger than several nanometers or time scales exceeding several nanoseconds. An attempt to overcome these problems is presented by the development of a coarse grained description of the transmembrane proteins. Because coarse graining reduces the number of degrees of freedom, the computational demands decrease, and larger systems can be investigated. However, to maintain the specific characteristics of transmembrane proteins, the general force field used in molecular modeling techniques needs to be extended with hydrogen bonding capabilities and helical backbone stabilization. This new coarse grained model is applicable to transmembrane proteins, and is used to investigate two independent cases: WALP-peptides and antimicrobial peptides. The first serve as a model system for both experiments and theory to investigate the interaction between transmembrane peptides and lipid membranes, whereas the latter are antibiotics whose pore-forming capacities are of great interest to act as target-specific drug candidates. From the molecular dynamics simulations of the WALP-peptides it is shown that the apparent hydrophobic mismatch between peptide and membrane can be resolved by two mechanisms (membrane thickness adaptation and peptide tilting) and that these two mechanisms occur sequential and not in parallel. In the case of the antimicrobial peptides it is shown that many of the orientations found with the molecular simulation techniques are in agreement with experimental observations. The second case to show the applicability of the molecular modeling techniques is that of the heat transfer characteristics of gas flows in nanochannels. Understanding these characteristics is important, because these very small channels are considered to be promising devices to locally cool systems (such as computer processing units) or to be used in lab-on-chip devices for at home medical diagnostics. Thus, understanding the interactions between the channel walls and the gas flow is of great importance. Unfortunately, the computational cost involved in simulating the solid wall, currently restrains the size of the systems that can be investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. Therefore, instead of the explicit modeling of the solid wall, appropriate boundary conditions are used, such as wall potentials or stochastic models. Both of these boundary conditions are examined in great detail and a new wall potential is presented. Also the investigations of a specific case of a channel with platinum walls with a noble gas (argon or xenon) in between allows to introduce a new method to compute an important heat transfer determining parameter. Furthermore, it is shown that both boundary conditions have their benefits and drawbacks, and that the use of either one depends heavily on the application under consideration. Both cases used to show the applicability of molecular modeling techniques, although very different from each other, indicate the importance of particle simulation methods. Investigating the interactions at the molecular level, and the development of new models allows for an even better understanding of underlying molecular processes

Explaining new trends in the gender gap of mortality: Insights from a regional trend- analysis of the Netherlands

The recent decrease of the male-female mortality gap in Western Europe has been accompanied by changes in the life style, educational level, family roles and employment of women. In this paper we try to find out whether a relationship indeed exists between the increase in gender equality and the decrease in the male/female mortality difference. We used regional-level data for the Netherlands for the periods 1980-83 and 1996-99 on gender differences in life expectancy, by age group and cause of death, and various measures of gender inequality on the same regional level. In doing this we followed as far as possible a framework recently developed by Ingrid Waldron to analyse changes in gender differences in mortality in the US. The cross-sectional analyses showed that in 1980-83 it was rather socioeconomic than gender role variables that were important in explaining gender difference in mortality, while in the period 1996-99, it was the other way around.